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Bitcoin NVT Remains Bullish, All-Clear Signal For Rally?

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio is above the bear zone, implying the recent price growth might have been healthy.

Bitcoin NVT Ratio Has Remained Outside Red Since October

According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, the NVT ratio has seen a significant improvement recently. The relevant indicator here is the “NVT ratio,” which keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and daily circulation.

The market cap here is naturally the total value of the asset, while circulation refers to the number of unique tokens observing some movement on the network inside a 24-hour rolling period.

Some other analytics websites use transaction volume in place of circulation, but Santiment’s version uses the latter because the volume often contains noise that’s not relevant to the market (like relay transactions of the same coins, which are counted multiple times in the volume, but only once in circulation).

When the value of the NVT ratio is high, it means that the price of the asset is high compared to the blockchain’s ability to transact coins right now. Such a trend can suggest the coin may be overvalued at the moment.

On the other hand, the metric being low implies the cryptocurrency might be underpriced currently as its transaction volume is at healthy levels compared to the market cap.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT ratio over the last few years:

Bitcoin NVT Ratio

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT ratio exited the historical bearish territory back in October and has continued to be outside it in the weeks since then.

The metric hasn’t exactly returned to the bullish zone proper yet; it has been more leaning towards neutral. However, the fact that the indicator has improved inside this period despite the cryptocurrency’s market cap also seeing a significant boost at the same time is certainly a positive development, as it suggests that the network activity growth has been outweighing the rise in the price.

At the current values of the ratio, the transaction activity of Bitcoin is justifying its market cap, so at the very least the asset may not be in immediate danger of a correction.

This naturally means that the rally should be able to continue for a while until the ratio returns back into the bearish territory (which may not even happen if the circulation continues to improve, as it has been during the price surge so far).

BTC Price

After seeing a pullback to as low as $35,000 earlier, Bitcoin has successfully recovered back above $37,000 during the past day.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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Crypto Market Cap To $25 Trillion: Cathie Wood Reveals The 2 Coins To Buy

Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, has reiterated her bullishness on the crypto industry. In a recent interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Cathie Wood argued that the crypto industry is poised to reach a $25 trillion valuation, given a regulatory breakthrough in the US. Out of the multitude of digital assets on the market right now, Wood sees two cryptocurrencies driving much of that growth: Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Cathie Wood Predicts $25 Trillion Crypto Ecosystem

The entire crypto industry has witnessed unprecedented growth since the middle of October. According to data from Coingecko, the entire crypto market cap has increased 35% from $1.096 trillion on October 15th to a current value of $1.4828 trillion. 

However, Cathie Wood is of the notion that this growth isn’t over, and the industry will reach a $25 trillion valuation in the near future. A $25 trillion market cap means the industry would have to grow a whopping 1,585% from its current level.

Cathie Wood had predicted earlier in 2021 that Bitcoin would climb more than 10 times its value in the next five years, back when the asset was still trading around $50,000. Given that Bitcoin is now selling at around $37,000, the host of Sqwauk Box, Andrew Ross Sorkin, questioned Wood as to whether or not she still stands by her prediction.

“If we have this conversation in ‘25, ‘26, are you on track?” Sorkin asked.  “Yes,” Wood replied.

The CEO did mention that this growth would be feasible only if there were a regulatory green light to allow financial institutions to participate in the cryptocurrency market. She also brought up the role that Spot Bitcoin ETFs will play in the projected spike, particularly BlackRock and Coinbase’s plan to offer a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US.

“I think BlackRock and Coinbase’s partnership is going to be very important,” she said.

Crypto total market cap chart from Tradingview.com (Cathie Wood $25 trillion 2 coins Bitcoin Ethereum)

Bitcoin And Ethereum The Ones To Look Out For

Wood specifically called out two coins to look out for as catalysts for this growth: Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two leading assets. This isn’t surprising, as these two assets have developed better price stability than most over the years. 

“Our expectation is that the crypto asset ecosystem will be dominated [by Ether and Bitcoin], and it will scale from a little more than $1 trillion today to $25 trillion in 2030 as this new world develops,” Wood explains.

The ARK Invest CEO has been a long supporter of Bitcoin. In another interview, she said she would prefer to hold Bitcoin for 10 years over cash and gold. The CEO is also no stranger to Bitcoin price predictions, as she has previously said that BTC will go to $500,000 and even reach $1.48 million in the next seven years.

According to CoinShares’ latest report, investment products tied to digital assets just reached a yearly institutional inflow of $1.14 billion. The majority of this money ($1.083 billion) has gone into Bitcoin investment products. This could signal the beginning of large-scale institutional investor participation that Wood believes will propel the crypto market cap to $25 trillion.

ARK Invest is also waiting for the SEC’s green light on its spot Ethereum ETF application. Approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF by the SEC is expected to propel the crypto market into the next bull run.

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Cardano Price Poised To Rally 650% By July 2024: Crypto Analyst

According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Cardano (ADA) is exhibiting a price consolidation pattern that is highly bullish. Drawing parallels to the consolidation phase of 2018-2020, Martinez points out that ADA’s current trend is a mirror image, albeit without the disastrous COVID-19 crash.

“Cardano’s current consolidation trend eerily mirrors the 2018-2020 phase without the COVID-19 crash! If so, ADA could break through the $0.45 resistance around the first week of December. The upswing could send ADA to $0.75 by late December,” Martinez shared in a recent post on X.

The one-week chart for ADA/USD indicates a prolonged consolidation phase spanning 665 days until July 2020, after which ADA experienced a 2,984% rally, peaking at $3.058. A significant aspect of this ascent was the retest of the upper consolidation box line, which took several months from summer 2020 to early 2021. Interestingly, after dipping back into the consolidation box, ADA initiated a second breakout that led to the massive bull run.

Cardano mirrors the 2018-2020 phase

Cardano Poised For 650% Rally Till July?

Martinez’s analysis suggests that ADA could be on the brink of its first breakout from its current consolidation range of sub-$0.25 to $0.45, which has lasted for 434 days. He outlines two possible trajectories for ADA’s price in the forthcoming period, using a gray and a blue line in his chart.

The more bullish scenario (gray line) anticipates a breakout above the consolidation zone that could catapult ADA to $0.75 by the end of December, assuming it surpasses the crucial resistance at $0.45. Following the historic pattern, a retest of the breakout mark could occur over several months.

This could potentially set the stage for an explosive rally beginning in early summer 2024, leading ADA to climb approximately 650% from its present value and surge past the $3 mark. However, Martinez does not see this as the zenith of ADA’s potential growth. The gray line suggests a continued upward movement, with ADA possibly reaching $6.50 before the closure of 2024.

The second, more conservative scenario (blue line) posits that the Cardano price consolidation may extend until July 2024, with potential dips below $0.25 if a market crash akin to the COVID-19 downturn occurs. In this case, a breakout towards $0.75 would be expected around July, followed by a retest at $0.45 by the end of 2024, eventually propelling ADA towards the $3 threshold by mid-2025.

Short-Term Price Analysis

On the lower time frames, ADA is currently making strong moves. The price has successfully retested the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level ($0.341) and soared above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($0.37). In the first attempt, ADA failed at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level ($0.0.411). However, if this resistance is broken, the door to the yearly high at $0.463 is clearly open.

Cardano price

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Bitcoin Price Is Up Despite SEC Delay, Is The Spot ETF Decision Priced In Already?

On Wednesday, the Bitcoin price rallied toward $38,000 amid expectations of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approving the first Spot BTC ETF. The regulator would end up exercising its right to delay its decision further, something that has usually been bearish for the price. However, the Bitcoin price continued to show strength, suggesting that a Spot Bitcoin ETF approval might be priced into the market already.

SEC Delays Spot BTC ETFs

The SEC announced on Wednesday that it had decided to further delay its decision on Spot Bitcoin ETF filings; in particular, the Hashdex Spot Bitcoin ETF filing which was due to a decision or a delay on November 15. The Commission had decided that it needed more time to contemplate and thoroughly investigate the filing before giving a final answer. This means that a decision for the Hashdex ETF filing is not expected until 2024.

Not only did the SEC decide to delay its decision on the Hashdex Spot ETF filing, but it also chose to do so on the Grayscale Ethereum Futures filing. This comes even after Grayscale had emerged victorious over the regulator in court, which demanded that the SEC review Grayscale’s Spot Bitcoin ETF filing.

Just like the Hashdex ETF, the SEC choosing to defer its decision on the Grayscale Ethereum Futures ETF pushes its deadline date into 2024, dashing hopes of the ETFs coming this year. However, both Bitcoin and Ethereum seemed to have shaken off this news with little to no reaction.

BTC price chart from Tradingview.com (Spot Bitcoin ETF, Ethereum futures ETF)

Bitcoin Price Already Accounts For ETF Approvals?

The approvals for a Spot Bitcoin ETF and an Ethereum Futures ETF have been anticipated by the crypto community for months now. And like any asset, investors may be becoming indifferent to whether the news affects their investment decisions or not.

Such a development would mean that the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals are being priced in already, and would not have much effect on the price when they are eventually approved. However, this does not seem to be entirely the case.

One example is when the price of XRP surged upon the rumors of BlackRock filing an XRP ETF, and then subsequently crashing once it was debunked. Then again, on Wednesday, as expectations around the SEC’s decision mounted, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum rallied to $38,000 and $2,080, respectively, suggesting that investors are still expecting approval to significantly move the market.

What seems to be happening is that news of delays from regulators is no longer having the bearish effects that they used to have. In this case, investors are simply not reacting to the news of a delay as they usually would seemingly because it is not widely understood that it is not the same thing as a rejection.

The Bitcoin price has since retraced since hitting $38,000 but it maintains a healthy $37,000 at the time of this writing. Ethereum has also followed suit, dropping to $2,046 from its Wednesday peak of $2,080.