Hououin Kyouma, Author at tridEX

8th July 2021

Analyst: Bitcoin Approaches “Critical Intersection Of Macro Support”

Bitcoin fast approaching towards a critical intersection of macro support, according to a crypto analyst.

Critical Intersection Of Macro Support

As pointed out by a Bitcoin analyst on Twitter, the cryptocurrency is coming closer to an intersection with a macro support curve.

BTC macro support curve | Source: TheCryptoCactus

The above chart showcases how Bitcoin has been moving relative to the macro support curve.

Now, there is another chart below that highlights the two important ranges of the BTC price.

Bitcoin ranges

Bitcoin's two price ranges of interest | Source: TheCryptoCactus

One notable feature in the graph is the wicks that BTC has been making into the lower band of Range 1.

Range 2 is the the previous all time high (ATH) price of Bitcoin. Currently, its value is around $19,000. It may be the most important macro support line.

If the price drops below the last ATH range, it could be a signal that the market has taken a bearish turn, and price will continue to go down.

However, as the wicks show, buyers are still trying to accumulate and maintain the range. As long as investors keep absorbing the pressure, the range will not be lost.

There are two scenarios that can happen with Bitcoin right now. The next chart will help showcase them.

Bitcoin scenarios

Where can the BTC market possibly head to next? | Source: TheCryptoCactus

The first scenario is that amidst all the FUD and crackdowns (like the Binance one), buyers keep at absorbing the pressure and maintaining this range. During which, the price gradually goes up to the next range.

The other way out of this range is if Bitcoin drops below the $30k mark, and this price-point becomes a resistance line.

The latter scenario will mean the price goes down a lot, and coming back from it will be tough. And as mentioned before, if BTC crosses the $19k last ATH support line, a bear market can possibly take hold.

Bitcoin Price

At the time of publishing, BTC is down almost 6% in the past 24 hours with its price floating just below $33k. Over the last week, its value is down around 2%.

Here is a chart noting the trend over the last 6 months:

Bitcoin Price

BTC gains slight downwards momentum | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Bitcoin’s price seems to be going down once again as the cryptocurrency touched the $32k mark Thursday.

The market price will need to be maintained above $30k for a bullish trend. If the price drops further, and the $19k support is lost, the market could very well turn into a bearish one.

Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TheCryptoCactus, TradingView.com

7th July 2021

Bitcoin Exchange Netflows Are Negative, Could A Bull Run Be Coming?

Bitcoin shows negative exchange netflows on CryptoQuant charts recently, an indicator that a bull run might be coming soon.

Negative Exchange Netflows

Bitcoin exchange netflow is an indicator that highlights whether more BTC is moving into exchanges than out.

A more technical definition of the term is that it’s the difference of the exchange inflows and outflows.

Exchange Netflow = Inflow – Outflow

The exchange inflow is just the amount of BTC transferred to exchanges, while outflow is the opposite.

Here is a chart that shows the current trend in Bitcoin exchange netflow with the BTC price:

Bitcoin netflow

BTC netflow shows negative behavior recently | Source: CryptoQuant

As is clear from the above chart, the recent trend of the Bitcoin exchange netflow has been negative. This means that more people are withdrawing their BTC from exchanges compared to those who are sending the coin to exchanges.

On closer inspection of the chart, another thing becomes apparent. Negative netflow seems to precede an increase in the price of the cryptocurrency.

Before the 2021 bull run, the netflow was deeply negative for a prolonged period of time. It was followed by alternating negative and positive neftlows that resulted in the different peaks to form.

While the recent crash was accompanied by a deeply positive netflow. And it makes sense, as a negative neflow means people are selling off their Bitcoin investments in exchanges.

Now, following the pattern of the chart, the current negative netflow might also result in an increase in the price of BTC.

However, the netflow isn’t as negative as at the start of the year so if the price is going to rise, it won’t be as drastic as that bull run.

Bitcoin Price

BTC’s price is around $34k right now. It’s value is down 0.52% in the past 7 days. Here is a chart showing the trend over the past 6 months:

Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin shows an almost flat line | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

BTC has shown stagnation in the past couple of days as its value is stuck near the $34k mark. Market volatility is the lowest since the bull run as per some indicators.

It’s unclear when Bitcoin will be able to break out of this freeze zone, and which direction it will go in.

However, as mentioned before, a negative netflow might mean the price is going to rise soon. If a bull run is coming as it indicates, BTC might be leaving up from this flatline.

A notable thing is that while a bull run might be soon, it’s possible the rise could be only short-term. The earlier chart shows that not too long before the crash, the netflow was negative.

6th July 2021

Bitcoin Daily Trading Volume Nosedives To Lowest Of 2021

An Arcane Research report has revealed that Bitcoin daily trading volume has dipped to the lowest point of 2021.

Bitcoin Activity Seems To Be Slowing Down

As BTC’s price continues to stagnate, the daily trading volume on the leading spot exchanges has dropped to the lowest it has ever been in the year 2021.

Here is a chart that displays how the Bitcoin daily trading volume has changed over the past one year:

Bitcoin Daily Trading Volume

Real BTC Daily Volume (7-day average) | Source: Arcane Research

The above graph shows that the BTC daily trading volume on exchanges is now the same as it was in mid-December of 2020.

Another notable thing from the chart is that the highest spike was when the BTC market was the most volatile. Which makes sense, as more people move their investments when the price is going up or down.

At the moment, the 7-day average of the Bitcoin daily trading volume stands at around $4 billion.

The data is backed by the fact that the value of the all exchanges flow ratio, another BTC indicator, has hit a 9-month low.

What Could It Mean For The Price Of The Cryptocurrency?

There could be a few possible reasons for the slowdown of Bitcoin’s activity. The most prominent one might be the stagnating market.

For a few weeks now, the coin has been stuck between the $30k and $35k price points. The market is behaving as a rangebound one where investors buy at the support line and sell off at the resistance point.

Many investors aren’t interested in buying BTC in such an environment, and that has lead to the low activity on exchanges.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around the $34k point. It’s down almost 6% in the past 7 days.

The market has shown no signs of improving from the almost 50% crash that it suffered after China reiterated its crypto ban. The currency has also suffered a few minor crashes afterwards caused by the nation’s crackdowns on BTC mining hubs.

Here is a chart showing the trend of the cryptocurrency over the past 6 months:

Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin's price doesn't seem to be going up | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Not too long ago, the price of BTC fell below the $30k mark, but before a bear market could take hold, the crypto was pumped back into the $30k-$35k zone.

It’s unclear when Bitcoin will be able to escape this zone, and it’s also hard to say what lies ahead. There could be a bear market waiting. Or perhaps, another bull run could be happening.

Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView, Arcane Research

5th July 2021

A Bitcoin Indicator Just Hit A 9-Month Low, What Does It Mean For The Price?

The Bitcoin exchange fund flow ratio has just hit a nine-month low. Here is what it might mean for the price of the cryptocurrency.

The Exchange Fund Flow Ratio

The signal of interest here is the all Bitcoin exchanges fund flow ratio. It’s defined as the total amount of BTC flowing in/out of exchanges divided by the total amount of BTC transferred on the network.

All exchanges fund flow ratio = $Total Exchange Inflows + Outflows \div Total Transferred BTC on whole network$

In simple terms, the fund flow ratio shows how many Bitcoins are occupied by exchanges compared to those sent on the whole BTC network.

When the fund flow ratio number increases, it means the market volatility is up as more transfers are taking place on exchanges.

On the other hand, when this number decreases, it implies people are opting for OTC (or “Over The Counter”) deals instead of using exchanges for transactions.

Traditional OTC deals include P2P transfers and trading desks. There is also a newer method, called decentralized dark pools. In which, traders don’t have to trust each other (or a trading desk organization) as trades are automatic and anonymous thanks to smart contracts.

Here is the latest exchange fund flow ratio chart for Bitcoin:

Bitcoin fund flow ratio

BTC fund flow ratio seems to have hit a low | Source: CrypoQuant

As the chart indicates, the ratio is now the lowest it has been since October last year.

Over the period of the last 6 months, it looks like spikes in the value of the fund flow ratio mean a change in the price of Bitcoin. Which is expected, as an increase means a volatile market.

Now that the value has hit a low, it seems the BTC market isn’t very volatile at the moment.

Bitcoin Price

Now, it’s hard to predict the price of the coin solely based on the chart above as there are many other factors to take into consideration.

One thing it indicates for certain is the fact that there isn’t much inflow or outflow from exchanges, which means not many investors are looking to buy/sell their Bitcoins in exchanges.

The BTC price at the moment is around 33k, down almost 4% in the past week. Here is how its value has fluctuated in the last 6 months:

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin goes down after a short rise | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Lower market volatility means the price shouldn’t change much. Over the past couple of weeks, it looks the price has stagnated between $30k and $35k.

It’s hard to tell when Bitcoin will be able to escape from this stagnation phase, but if the fund flow ratio is anything to go by, it might not happen for a while.

1st July 2021

Plan B: The Next 6 Months Will Make Or Break Famed Bitcoin Model

The next 6 months will make or break S2F, the most famous Bitcoin model, says PlanB who popularized the method.

The Stock-To-Flow Model

The S2F model is a simple method used to predict asset prices. PlanB first posted a chart for Bitcoin based on the technique back in 2019.

Here is new chart based on the S2F method for Bitcoin’s current price prediction, posted by PlanB on Twitter:

Bitcoin price prediction

BTC's S2F model | Source: PlanB

The trend predicted by S2F is remarkably close to the real thing. There are a few points of deviation, however, including the current 2021 period.

As the name Stock-To-Flow would imply, it’s calculated by dividing the stock (supply) with the flow (annual production).

Higher the S2F value, more scarce is the commodity. PlanB used this table to showcase how this works:

The S2F values of some precious metals | Source: PlanB

As you can see, the above table shows data for a few precious metals.

The SF value indicates how many years it will take based on the production levels (or flow) to mine out the same amount as the current stock.

For example, in the case of gold, the SF value is 62, which indicates it would take 62 years to take the current stock out of ground.

Such a high value means that gold is a relatively scarce commodity compared to, say, silver, which has its SF value at 22.

During 2019, when this table was released, Bitcoin’s SF value was 25, which means it was scarcer than silver, but not gold.

However, there is one thing to note here. BTC is different to gold and other metals in that their S2F value won’t practically increase much.

Current stock-to-flow value of Bitcoin is around 49, which means the cryptocurrency has only gotten scarcer over the years.

The reason behind BTC’s S2F value sharply going up is the halving (where flow is halved). With each halving, the coin will continue to get scarcer.

Now, here is how the S2F value correlates with the price.

Model price (USD) = exp(-1.84) * SF ^ 3.36

The model is based on the above formula. This is how the chart was generated. Looking back at which, in 2019 almost the same amount of deviation was observed as in 2021 right now.

Related Reading | A Never Wrong Bearish Bitcoin Signal Just Triggered

The 2019 price went back in line with the chart shortly after, while it remains to be seen whether the same will happen this time.

Bitcoin Price

At the time of writing, BTC‘s price is around $33k. It’s down about 5% in the last 7 days, and almost 8% in the past month.

Bitcoin price

BTC seems to be going down again | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Bitcoin seems to be in a bear market right now, but if the S2F model holds true, the price should go up soon to remain in line with it. The next few months will be a real test for the method.

30th June 2021

Poolin Reward Tokens Plummet In Response To China Bitcoin Mining Exodus

Following China’s bitcoin mining crackdowns, Poolin has suspended rewards for its tokenized hashrate contracts.

The wBTC and wETH rewards are on pause until “less than 60 days”, as per a blog post from Poolin.

Poolin Pauses Rewards For pBTC35A And pETH18C

Poolin’s tokenized hashrate contracts, pBTC35A and pETH18C, have all their wBTC and wETH rewards suspended until less than 60 days.

The reason behind the move is China’s ongoing crackdown on mining farms, which has forced miners around the country to migrate elsewhere.

The 60-days timeframe correlates to the migration time needed to move mining farms out of China.

As a consequence of the rewards payout suspension, holders are pulling out of the contracts in hordes.

Here is how the pETH token price and volume chart looks like right now:

pETH price rapidly goes down | Source: Compass Mining Memo

The chart shows that pETH price has rapidly corrected following the announcement.

Similarly for pBTC, the below chart highlights the trend in its price and volume:

pBTC plummets following rewards suspension | Source: Compass Mining Memo

Two other notable takeaways from the graphs are that pETH hit a single-day $2 million turnover in volume for the first time ever, but pBTC only hit a monthly high.

The other high turnovers in pBTC volume were in the months of April and May. The first one corresponds to the coal mine flooding incident in Xinjiang that cut power supply to Bitcoin miners, while the second one was caused by the 21% difficulty adjustment.

The Poolin team plans to pack and transport their mining rigs to another location within 60 days, after which rewards are expected to resume normally.

It should be noted that while wBTC and wETH rewards are paused, Poolin is still offering rewards in the Mars token.

Mars is the platform’s native governance token, holders of which can usually vote on decisions relating to the platform.

However, for the decision of cutting out wBTC and wETH rewards, no Mars holder was able to vote. Poolin went forth with the initiative by themselves.

Bitcoin Price

Right now, Bitcoin is priced around $34k, up 2% in the past week, but down 7% in the last 30 days.

China’s latest mining crackdowns are also responsible for BTC’s latest crash. As BTC miners were also forced to shutdown their farms, and migrate elsewhere.

Here is a chart showing the trend in its price:

Bitcoin price chart

BTC seems to have stagnated around this point | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

It’s hard to say where the price will be heading next. There is a possibility BTC is entering a bear market as a never-before wrong signal has been triggered.

29th June 2021

A Never Wrong Bearish Bitcoin Signal Just Triggered

Bitcoin is likely to enter a bearish market as a never-before wrong signal just got triggered.

Bitcoin Headed Towards Bear Market?

As pointed out by a pseudonymous trader on Twitter, there is a certain signal that has consistently been right in the previous BTC cycles.

The signal in question is the Super Guppy indicator, a method that is based on exponential moving averages. Simply put, the technique is used to capture the difference between the price and value of Bitcoin.

Using Super Guppy, it becomes possible to tell whether the market is bearish or bullish.

Let’s take a look at the previous Bitcoin cycles. Starting with the 2011 run, here is how the Super Guppy chart looked like:

The 2011 BraveNewCoin Liquid Index For Bitcoin

Note that when the market becomes bullish, Super Guppy turns green. Similarly, for a bearish one, the indicator turns red.

As you can see in the above chart, Super Guppy was right about the Bitcoin market during the period.

Next, here is how the 2014 run looked like:

Bitcoin 2014 rally

The 2014 run forms two peaks before going all the way down

Similar to the 2011 run, the 2014 cycle was also predicted accurately by Super Guppy. Here, another bullish reversal happened in the middle of the cycle, which the technique was also right about.

Finally, to add to the credibility of the method, here is the 2018 cycle:

Super Guppy indicated correctly about the market during this cycle as well.

A common misconception regarding the method of moving averages is that it is a lagging indicator, and it only notes the past trend. However, that is untrue; Super Guppy is rather a warning for the upcoming market trend.

Is It Truly A Bearish Market?

Now that it seems like the Supper Guppy indicator does seem to hold some weight given past cycles, here is how the 2020 BTC cycle looks like at the moment:

The current cycle

As Super Guppy has turned red now, and given the pattern of the other curves, it seems like the cycle is entering into a bearish trend.

However, it doesn’t mean BTC is going to hit rock-bottom. It’s possible the bear market is only short-term, and soon the indicator might turn green again.

Also, some other signals show that Bitcoin hasn’t reached its peak yet, which means the cycle might indeed see another bullish reversal.

At the time of writing, BTC is priced around $36k, up 14% in the past 7 days.

Bitcoin seems to regain an upwards trend | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Some other signals also show that whales have started accumulating, which is another positive sign for the market.

Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com

28th June 2021

Indian Investments In Crypto Grow Rapidly As $40 Billion Milestone Is Reached

India is seeing explosive growth in crypto investments compared to last year as the $40 billion milestone is crossed.

Rapid Growth In Cryptocurrency Compared To Last Year

As per a Bloomberg report, Indian investors now hold $40 billion in virtual assets, a massive increase from $200 million a year ago.

Traditionally, precious metals like gold have been the top choice of Indian investors. The young ones, however, are realizing the potential in digital currency.

Right now, around 15 million Indians use crypto, which is only 8 million less than the US figure of 23 million. It’s also much more than UK’s 2.3 million

While the number isn’t that impressive compared to the gigantic population of 1.3 billion, it’s still incredible growth in a country where families own 25,000 tonnes of gold.

Not just the general public, but also the Indian government is not supportive of cryptocurrencies. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has attempted to block digital asset trading in the country several times in the past.

However, last year, the Supreme Court overturned a policy set in 2018 according to which banks can’t trade in digital assets.

Investments came rushing in as soon as that happened. Though, there is still uncertainty in the air as to how the government will proceed next relating to cryptocurrencies.

It was only 6 months ago that the government proposed a trading ban on digital currencies. Despite all this, investments are massively up as per the data by chainalysis.

“I’d rather put my money in crypto than gold,” says Richi Sood, a young investor who took money out of gold, and put $13,400 in Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Ethereum in the past 7 months.

Crypto is more transparent than gold or property and returns are more in a short period of time.

Nonetheless, due to concerns over regulation, many investors are still hesitant about putting their money in digital coins. Even many who have invested don’t want to speak about it publicly as they fear future regulations like income taxes might be retroactive.

Bitcoin’s Price And Indian Crypto Market

The Indian market certainly has a lot of potential and it will be interesting to see how much more rapidly it can grow in the coming years.

China at around $160 billion has about 4 times the investment India has, and as it has been clear in the past month, the Chinese market can majorly impact Bitcoin’s price.

As Indian investments continues to grow, its market might also influence global prices. If such a tremendous growth continues in a huge population like India’s, cryptocurrencies are sure to see benefit in the long-term.

Right now, Bitcoin‘s price is going around $34k, up 5% in the last 7 days.

BTC crypto Price

BTC price rebounds after the low | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

25th June 2021

Comparing Past Crypto Cycles Suggests Bitcoin Nowhere Near Top

Comparing past crypto cycles shows there is a clear pattern, and Bitcoin seems to be nowhere near the top right now.

Bitcoin researcher Dor Shaher has pointed out on Twitter that there is consistency in the way correction periods have played out in previous cycles.

Bitcoin Price Growth Since Cycle Low

Here is a chart from _checkonchain that will make it easier to understand how the pattern in the BTC cycles appears:

Bitcoin Price Cycle

BTC price growth since low

Upon closer inspection, it becomes clear that each cycle had a correction period around the middle.

The first cycle is the 2011 one. Here is how Bitcoin’s price changed during it:

2011 correction

The marked area in the chart is the correction period where the price shows a clear downwards trend. It lasted 51 days.

The next correction occurred in 2013 as shown in the below chart.

2013 correction

This one wasn’t as smooth as the previous one; it had many dips and rises. It disappeared after 88 days.

2017 is the next relevant year, but it’s unlike the others.

2017 looks different than all others

As you can see in the chart, rather than a specific period of decline, Bitcoin had sporadic downs of around 30-40% in 2013. They lasted 90 days in total.

Finally, there is the cycle we are in right now.

The current cycle

Comparing this to the previous years, it’s possible that the recent crash is the mid-cycle correction. So far, it has lasted 70 days.

When Will The Correction Period End?

It’s hard to say when the Bitcoin price will start rising again, but guesses can be made if the mid-cycle theory stands correct.

The 2010-11 epoch peaked in 325 days, while the 2011-2015 did in 747 days. 2015-2018 took further long with 1067 days.

From this, it looks like each cycle is longer than the last. The reason behind that is probably BTC maturing as an asset.

If the pattern follows, the current cycle should be longer than 1067 days. So, at 921 days so far, it should go on for at least 148 days before peaking.

Also, each correction period has also been longer than the last. It’s possible this one will be at least 90 days long, which would mean a few more weeks of downwards trajectory.

Right now, Bitcoin seems to be around $32k. While it’s down 11% in the last 7 days, it seems some whales have started accumulating, which could be a positive sign.

BTC seems to be going down | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Could the current downtrend be the mid-cycle correction? Possibly, but nothing can be said about its certainty.

If it’s indeed the mid-cycle correction, and the pattern holds, then Bitcoin is nowhere near the top right now.

Featured image from Unsplash, charts from _checkonchain

24th June 2021

South African Brothers Escape With $3.6 Billion In Bitcoin

Two African brothers have disappeared, and so does the $3.6 billion in bitcoin from their cryptocurrency investment platform.

Biggest Scam In Bitcoin History?

Africrypt is a cryptocurrency investment platform based in South Africa. It was set up by Ameer Cajee and his brother. The pool offered huge returns for investors.

Back in April, around when BTC was riding high, Chief Operating Officer Cajee announced that the company was under a hack.

In the notification, however, Cajee asked investors not to seek legal help as it will slow down the recovery process.

It was immediately a red sign, and some investors hired Hanekom Attorneys, a law firm, to look into the case.

Reports say that Africrypt employees lost access to backend servers a week before Cajee revealed the alleged hack to the investors.

Hanekom Attorneys found that the Bitcoin from the Africrypt pool has been sent through methods that make it hard to trace. Such methods include sending the coins to other large pools, or through tumblers and mixers.

The company website is down. And Cajee and his brother, Raees, have their phone numbers set to voicemail. They have disappeared, along with almost 69,000 Bitcoins.

Africa’s Finance Sector Conduct Authority is also looking into the case. However, as Bitcoin isn’t considered a legal financial asset, the organization hasn’t been able to launch a formal investigation.

Now, according to reports, Hanekom Attorneys has reported to the Hawks, an elite group of the police force, regarding the disappearance of the two brothers.

The law firm has also alerted global crypto exchanges to report if there are any attempts to sell off the stolen Bitcoins.

This isn’t the first time something like this has happened in the country. Just last year, another company, Mirror Trading International, was involved in a case where investors had lost $1.2 billion in Bitcoins.

The nearly 69,000 Bitcoins stolen in the Africrypt case were worth more than $4 billion during April when the incident occurred. Around three times as much as the fraud in 2020, which was dubbed as the biggest cryptocurrency scam in 2020.

The African brothers scam is possibly the biggest in the entire history of the cryptocurrency, and it might provoke governments to become serious about crypto regulation.

Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin is a little under $35k at the time of writing. The coin is up 4.1% in the past 24 hours, but down 7.6% in the last 7 days.

Here is a chart that shows how the price of the cryptocurrency has changed in the past few months:

Bitcoin chart

Bitcoin seems to show a slight upwards trend | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Some experts believe we could see the currency drop down a bit, and then return on a bullish path.

However, nothing is clear at the moment, and it’s possible a bearish pattern might end up clawing the market.

23rd June 2021

Crypto Sonar: The Sign That Whales Are Accumulating Bitcoin

Whales are accumulating Bitcoin again, as per the data released by CryptoQuant that shows deeply negative BTC netflow.

Yesterday, BTC dropped below $30k for the first time since the start of the year, but it quickly rebounded to around $32k.

Signs That Show Rising Bitcoin Accumulation

The “sign” to focus on here is BTC netflow to/from exchanges. To understand what it shows, first we will have to take a look at two specific terms, exchange inflow and outflow.

Exchange inflow is the number of coins deposited into exchange wallets. If it increases, it means that more people are sending their Bitcoin to exchanges, indicating a dump.

On the other hand, exchange outflow is the number of coins withdrawn from exchange wallets. If this value goes up, more people are sending their BTC to individual wallets, meaning they are buying more.

As mentioned before, the relevant term here is exchange netflow, which is just the difference between the inflow and the outflow.

Exchange Netflow = Exchange inflow – Exchange Outflow

Now as per the data by CryptoQuant, here is how the Bitcoin exchange netflow graph looks like for the past 7 days:

Bitcoin netflow chart

BTC exchange netflow shows deep red | Source: CryptoQuant

As is clear from the chart, the Bitcoin netflow is showing deep negative behavior.

A negative netflow behavior means that more BTC is moving out of exchanges than in. For example, from the graph, 5k BTC moved out to individual wallets yesterday alone.

In the past week, the most Bitcoin that moved out was on between the 15th and the 16th, when in total 39k BTC moved out of exchanges.

The interesting thing is, such a large movement of coins must mean some whales have started accumulating.

Bitcoin Price

BTC has rebounded from the crash to below $30k, and seems to on a rise. In the last 24 hours, it’s up almost 18%. Though, when looking over the past 7 days, the cryptocurrency is still down 12%.

At the time of writing, the coin is trading around $34k. Here is a chart that shows the variation in BTC’s value over the past 4 months:

BTC gains a momentarily upwards trend after the latest crash | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

It’s hard to say right now where the price will head next as it has been a chaotic few weeks. The current upwards trend is probably only temporary, however.

Some experts believe the market is going to go further down, but long-term it will go up.

One thing is for certain, though, with whales starting to accumulate more Bitcoin, there is surely some bullish sentiment around the market.

22nd June 2021

Crypto Bloodbath, $350 Billion In Market Cap Gone In 48 Hours

Bitcoin and altcoins alike, the entire crypto space takes a beating, losing $350 billion in market cap in just 48 hours.

As a result, the market cap is just around 1.2 trillion today, the lowest it has been since the start of the year.

Bitcoin price dropped below $30k due to the fud caused by China‘s recent crypto crackdown movements. As it usually is the case, the other coins also dipped in response to that.

Altcoins Suffer Double Digit Losses

The crash seems to have hit the alternative coins pretty hard as all the major ones seem to be in the red by double digit percentages.

Here is a chart on Quantify Crypto that shows all the major cryptocurrencies with their daily changes in value as of Tuesday:

The entire crypto market is shook | Source: Cryptocurrency Price Heatmap on Qunatify Crypto

Ethereum (ETH) is down almost 12% to $1753. Only a week ago, ETH was above $2600.

The third largest coin by market cap is Binance Coin (BNB), and it’s floating around $237 right now. Thus, it has fallen off by 23%.

Dogecoin (DOGE) has suffered a loss of 25%, one of the biggest decrease on the map. It has gone down to about $0.17.

Here is a quick rundown of the other major altcoins:

Cardano (-21%), XRP (-23%), Polkadot (-22%), Uniswap (-18%), Bitcoin Cash (-18%), Litecoin (-19%), and ChainLink (-18%).

During the $350 billion market cap drop in the past couple of days, Bitcoin actually gained more dominance with an increase of about 1.28% in the last 24 hours.

Over the last 7 days, however, BTC has dropped in market cap by about 18%.

Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin’s price has dropped below $30k for the first time since January. This means it has lost over 9% in value over the past 24 hours.

Also, it’s year-to-date return has fallen down to just 3%, when only yesterday it was riding over 10%.

Here is how its market cap has changed over the period of a few months:

BTC's market value fluctuations since February 2021 | Source: Market Cap BTC on TradingView

The latest Bitcoin crash came after China’s continued attempts at shutting down major mining hubs around the country.

As a lot of the Bitcoin hashrate resides on China, the movements of the BTC owned by miners caused a domino effect on the entire market.

Altcoins followed from there and their value fell as well. The effect on the total global cryptocurrency market cap can be seen in this chart:

The global cryptocurrency market cap is down more than $200 billion in the last 24 hours | Source: TradingView

As per this chart, the market cap fell by more than $400 billion in the past week. Of which, $224 billion was lost in just the past 24 hours.

21st June 2021

Microstrategy Buys Another $489 Million Worth Of Bitcoin

Microstrategy bought on Monday 13,005 Bitcoins worth about $489 million at an average price of $37,617 per coin.

Now the business owns a total of 105,085 BTC that they bought for $2.74 billion. The average price per coin comes out to be $26,080.

Microstrategy’s CEO Makes Bitcoin Acquisition Second Business

Microstrategy’s primary business is software development. Michael Saylor, the CEO of the company, has added Bitcoin acquisition as a second mandate.

BTC is down 8% to about $33k today as a result of China’s continued crackdowns on mining hubs. As Microstrategy’s stock is tied to BTC, it too fell over 6%.

As of right now, the 105,085 BTC that Microstrategy holds is worth more than $3 billion. The software company acquired them at an average price of $26,080 per coin including fees and other expenses.

Microstrategy had to take debt offerings so that the firm could pick up more coins, and they seem to have doubled down even more on their Bitcoin pursuits after the $489 million buy today.

Regarding their BTC business, Saylor says:

We rotated our shareholder base and transformed ourselves into a company that’s able to sell enterprise software and to acquire and hold bitcoin, and we’ve done it successfully with leverage.

The software developer has also decided to sell more stock worth $1 billion so that they can fund more Bitcoin purchases

All these purchases have been a big benefit for the company as the year-on-year revenue jumped to 10%. Saylor says:

That has increased the power of the brand by a factor of 100. We just had our best software quarter … in the last 10 years last quarter

Microstrategy has also seen the benefit in terms of stock value. In August last year, when they first started buying BTC, their stock price was around $120. Today, it is $580, a sharp increase of over 400%.

The bitcoin business is driving shareholder returns. I think the employees are happy. The shareholders are happy.

Bitcoin Price

BTC is down to $32,195 today. This value is 19% down compared to last week. While over the entire month, its down slightly less, around 15%.

Here is a chart that showcases the current trend:

BTC shows a downward trend, again | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

It looks like the market is bearish right now, and it’s unclear when it would change for the better.

China’s crackdowns on crypto seem to be having a major effect on the price of BTC so the future of the market probably depends on that as well. Right now, China doesn’t seem to be slowing down.

Some experts believe the market could correct itself to 1/2 of the value at $17k, and only after that a bullish pattern will make a return.

17th June 2021

Iran Minister Proposes Kish Island As Crypto Exchange Hub

Iran’s ICT minister has made a proposal that the Persian Gulf island of Kish should be transformed into a crypto exchange hub.

Kish is an island off the Persian Gulf coast in Southern Iran, and it hosts one of the country’s free trade zones. Muhammad Javad Azari Jahromi, Iran’s information and communications minister, made the proposal during a visit to the island.

Kish has the infrastructure to emerge as a hub for international crypto exchanges in the region. Authorities need to start talks with neighboring countries.

The Persian Gulf island is a tourist location with over a million visitors each year. The government plans to make it a financial trade zone as well, which will further attract more people.

As the island’s excess energy can’t be sent to the mainland, the government allows it be used by crypto miners. According to a report from Financial Tribune, several mining farms are already up and running in the island.

Regulation Of Crypto Exchanges

Currently, trading of crypto is banned within the country, even though mining is allowed for licensed companies.

There are a few exceptions, however. In April, Iran’s Central bank authorized that the digital assets mined inside the country can be used for making payments of imports.

Policymakers in Iran are already at work for setting up the regulations for crypto exchanges, and the proposal from the ICT minister comes amidst it.

However, regulating digital assets isn’t a simple task. And no state body wants to take full responsibility over it.

The High Council of Cyberspace cited certain concerns related to cryptocurrency mined outside the country. The deputy chief said,

It is not clear who has developed cryptocurrencies. We have no precise information about those who have invested in the digital currencies. As such, we do not encourage investors to put their money into digital assets.

He also said, “Cryptos could help the country bypass sanctions in a limited number of cases,” and emphasized that central banks should come up with an approach to this effect.

The Central Bank of Iran has said that it isn’t in a hurry to announce the regulations related to crypto.

The institution intends to collaborate with other government foundations, like the High Council of Cyberspace, on a roadmap.

Bitcoin Back To Going Up?

BTC has enjoyed a week of overall upwards trend at last, after the huge drop-off last month.

BTC crypto chart

BTC is 5% in the last 7 days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

It seems like the market is bullish again, but it’s unclear whether that is truly the case yet.

16th June 2021

Survey: Hedge Funds Intend To Hold $300 Billion In Crypto Within 5 Years

A global survey of Chief Financial Officers has revealed that hedge funds are planning to hold 7% of their wealth in crypto within the next 5 years.

Reuters has described the survey results as a major vote of confidence for cryptocurrency assets within the current market environment.

The Hedge Funds Crypto Survey

Financial administrator Intertrust conducted the survey with over 100 CFOs participating from all over the globe. Chief Financial Officers, or CFOs, are executives who are responsible for managing their company’s finances.

As per Intertrust, the results of the survey indicate that hedge funds plan to increase their crypto assets in the next five years.

An average figure based on the responses shows that by 2026, funds aim to keep $313 billion in digital assets, which is around 7.2% of their total assets.

Another interesting finding from the poll is that 17% of the survey takers believe their funds will work with at least 10% of their assets as crypto, a figure that is around 3% higher than the average.

It’s unclear what the current crypto holdings by the funds look like, but one thing worth noting is that many big-names in the sector seem to already have invested appreciable amounts in digital assets.

Increasing Interest In Cryptocurrency

While huge volatility and uncertainty over regulation keep the majority of traditional asset managers skeptical about cryptocurrency, the hedge funds survey shows that there is still a growing interest in digital assets.

Executive Director at Quilter Cheviot Investment Management says hedge funds “are well aware not only of the risks but also the long-term potential” of crypto assets.

Examples of firms that have already invested in digital assets include Man Group, Brevan Howard, and Renaissance Technologies. Some of the big-name fund managers who have also committed are Alan Howard and Paul Tudor Jones.

Another prominent case is Skybridge Captial, a US-based firm setup by Anthony Scaramucci, that invested into Bitcoin late last year. Due to trimming their investment early in April, Bitcoin became the largest contributor of their gains.

Overall, it is clear that there is a growing enthusiasm towards crypto assets in the industry.

Bitcoin Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin price hovers over $39,280. The asset is down 11% in the past 30 days, but up 12% in the past 7 days. Here is a chart noting the change in the price of the cryptocurrency:

Bitcoin seems to be on an upward trend | Source: BTCUSD on TradinvView

While BTC seems to be back on track for going up, it’s not yet clear whether we are looking at a bullish market. Some experts believe we may be witnessing a bull trap.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView