Author: Ronaldo Marquez

As the Federal Reserve (Fed) prepares to announce its decision on interest rates, Material Indicators, a research and analysis firm in the cryptocurrency market, is keeping a close eye on the Bitcoin (BTC) liquidity movements. FireCharts, a popular charting platform, has tracked liquidity movements on the BTC/USDT Binance order book. Their observations have led them to believe that the recent dip in Bitcoin’s price may extend.

Liquidity refers to the amount of Bitcoin available for trading at a given price level. When there is a large amount of liquidity at a particular price level, traders can easily buy or sell Bitcoin at that price without significantly affecting the market. However, low liquidity at a certain price level can lead to volatility spikes as traders scramble to buy or sell the asset. 

Will Bitcoin Face Another Dip

Material Indicator’s FireCharts analysis shows that liquidity in the Bitcoin order book has been moving ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision, indicating that traders are preparing for potential volatility in the market. This could lead to further price drops if liquidity to the upside declines. 

Added to the above, according to Kaiko, a leading cryptocurrency market data provider, liquidity in Bitcoin and Ethereum continues to deteriorate, with market depth for both cryptocurrencies approaching one-year lows, which could have significant implications for bulls, as low liquidity can lead to increased volatility and price instability.

As of writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at $28,300, representing a 1.4% decline over the past 24 hours. Despite the recent news of more bank failures, which briefly pushed the price above $29,000, Bitcoin has remained within its established trading range of $27,800 to $28,600. The attempt to exceed the $29,000 mark was unsuccessful, and the price has since retraced to its current level. 

The market remains in flux as investors monitor the ongoing price movements, waiting for a clear direction to emerge after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. But will this lead to more retracement, or will the market react positively to the news?

BTC Braces For Potential Impact Of Federal Reserve’s Rate Hike

The Federal Reserve’s latest measures on employment and wages suggest that more rate hikes may be on the horizon. This comes after the key labor costs metric for the first quarter came in higher than expected. One of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index, remains persistently high. 

Furthermore, according to the latest report by Bitfinex, a leading cryptocurrency exchange, the labor costs metric for the first quarter came in hotter than expected, indicating that wages are rising faster than anticipated. This could lead to higher inflation, as companies may pass higher labor costs to consumers through higher prices.

This suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to manage inflation and maintain price stability. The Fed has already signaled that it may raise rates in May, and these latest measures on employment and wages reinforce that decision.

The implications of a rate hike are significant for the financial markets, including the cryptocurrency market. A rate hike could increase volatility and uncertainty as investors adjust their expectations for future economic growth and earnings. However, it could also lead to a stronger dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin.

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has been experiencing a volatile price action since late April, with significant fluctuations in its value. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency has experienced a 3% decline in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at $28,400. However, it has now settled within an accumulation range of $27,800 to $30,000.

Bitcoin Bulls Take Caution

BaroVirtual from Cryptoquant recently shared his analysis regarding the potential downside targets for Bitcoin. According to the analyst, the bearish divergence of the BTC: On-Chain Summation Index suggests a target of approximately $27.200. A Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern also indicates a lower range target of $25,000.

The BTC on-Chain Summation Index is a metric that tracks the number of Bitcoin being transferred on the blockchain. When the index shows a bearish divergence, it suggests a decrease in the amount of Bitcoin being transferred, which could lead to a decline in price.

On the same note,  Binance, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, received its largest single Bitcoin deposit in the past week. The deposit, made to an address that had remained inactive for four months, came from five separate addresses and totaled over 1,200 BTC, worth over $35M at current market prices.

Arkham, a blockchain analytics firm that tracks cryptocurrency transactions, reported the news. The firm noted that the deposit was made in a single transaction and that the funds were sent to a previously unused deposit address. Will this translate into an extension of the bearish momentum? It remains to be seen. 

Moreover, according to Material Indicators, a crypto analytics firm, the recent Bitcoin monthly candle close/open has signaled a potential short-term price correction for the cryptocurrency. The firm’s Trend Precognition A2+ algo flashed a short signal, indicating a potential decline in Bitcoin’s price, as seen in the chart below. 

However, according to Material Indicators, the signal is tentative until the candle closes, and a pump above the April high could invalidate it. Additionally, Wednesday’s upcoming U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Federal Reserve interest rate decision could catalyze a significant price move in either direction.

If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points, it could lead to a stronger US dollar and put downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. However, continuing to pause or maintain current rates could boost investor confidence and lead to a price increase for the cryptocurrency.

Although the potential downside targets predicted for BTC, evidence suggests that the $27,000 mark could support the cryptocurrency and push back the bears. This level has already demonstrated its resilience as a support floor, holding up well against significant selling pressure since April 21st.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView.com

Despite the volatile price action of Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency has outperformed every other asset, including gold. Although it is trading below its psychological milestone of $30,000 at $29,000, Bitcoin is expected to grow further in 2023, as it acts as a safe haven for investors amidst the US banking crisis.

 Bitcoin Reigns Supreme As the Best-Performing Asset

Capriole Investment, which provides research and analysis on cryptocurrencies, has reported that the current market cycle favors hard assets like gold, as indicated by the 200-week Gold-to-Stocks ratio. This classic indicator highlights when the market favors safe-haven assets like gold over riskier equity assets. Both gold and Bitcoin have generated some of their best returns during these phases.

As the market continues to favor hard assets, Bitcoin has emerged as the preferred safe haven for wealth amidst the US banking crisis and fiat currency weakness. During this period of high correlation, Bitcoin has outperformed gold by 10X in 2023, making it the best-performing asset of the year among major asset classes.

The strong positive correlation between Bitcoin and Gold has also increased significantly, making them attractive options for investors looking to diversify their portfolios and hedge against economic uncertainty. With unsustainable tightening, banking crises, and de-dollarization looming, the market is turning to these safe-haven assets to protect their wealth.

According to the report by Capriole Investment, the current Bitcoin rally in 2023 is believed to be organic and spot driven. The report highlights a key metric showing total futures Open Interest as a ratio of the total Bitcoin and USDT market cap. 

This metric provides insight into the market’s leverage and shows that the crypto market leverage peaked with the FTX fraud in November 2022. Since then, this ratio has been on a one-way downtrend, despite Bitcoin’s price rallying over 80% from $16,000 to $30,000. This indicates that there has been little speculation in the market this year.

The report suggests that until this ratio spikes or Bitcoin dominance peaks, the foundations for sustainable price appreciation remain in place. This means that the current rally is driven by organic demand rather than speculation, which is a positive sign for the long-term growth of the cryptocurrency market.

Furthermore, the report suggests that the decrease in leverage indicates a healthy market less vulnerable to sudden price drops. This is because a high level of leverage can often lead to market instability, causing sharp price swings and potentially resulting in a market crash.

BTC’s $30-32K Dilemma

According to the report, Bitcoin is trading within the largest technical resistance block on the chart since $20,000. This region, which ranges from $30,000 to $32,000, represents the bottom of the 2021 range and the breakdown point into the bear market that began in 2022. 

Additionally, it is a major weekly order block level and Fibonacci extension level from the prior cycle. $30,000 is also a major round number level, representing a 50% increase from the 2017 cycle all-time-high of $20,000, and $32,000 marks a 100% appreciation in Bitcoin since the FTX Fraud bottom at $16,000.

While Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience in recent months, it is important to note that past performance is not an indicator of future results. However, according to Capriole’s report, if Bitcoin manages to close above $32,000 weekly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a new trend carry its price into the $40,000 mark.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView.com

In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a sharp increase in volatility, with prices fluctuating between $29,000 and $27,000, given the lack of liquidity in the market. This sudden price action has had a significant impact on bulls and bears.

However, as of this writing, Bitcoin has managed to recover the $29,000 level, and it remains to be seen if it can continue to recover and consolidate above its key psychological level of $30,000, supporting the continuation of its bull run or if it will be further slumps in the coming days or weeks.

False Rumors Cause Bitcoin Investors To Liquidate In Droves

According to Satoshi Club, the rumors of the US government and Mt. Gox sales were initially believed to be true, leading to panic selling among Bitcoin traders. However, it was later confirmed that the data was misclassified, and no such sales were taking place.

The impact of these rumors on the market was significant, as traders were already on edge due to the high levels of volatility in the market. The news of potential large-scale sales by the US government and Mt. Gox, a now-defunct Bitcoin exchange, only added to the uncertainty and fear among traders.

The market panic led to liquidating $300 million worth of positions as of this writing and the wiping out of $1 billion in open interest within 24 hours. This was a significant blow to both long and short traders, as many were forced to exit their positions at a loss.

Open interest can impact the price of Bitcoin because it reflects the level of market participation and sentiment. When open interest is high, it suggests greater interest and activity in the market, potentially leading to price movements.

However, the market has since recovered, and Bitcoin’s value has risen again. The Funding Rate has returned to around 0.003, indicating that traders are no longer overleveraged, and the open interest has also decreased, indicating a lack of significant activity in the market.

Will BTC Reclaim The $30,000 Mark?

Material Indicators, a leading cryptocurrency analytics provider, has analyzed the Weekly BTC/USDT chart, which shows bid liquidity moving up and ask liquidity moving down. According to Material Indicators, when bid and ask liquidity becomes more concentrated around a price point, it dampens volatility, leading to a sideways chop until one side makes a move.

Per Material’s analysis, this type of price action differs from what was observed yesterday, as bids and asks were initially moving up, indicating a clear path for a pump. However, as things started getting “toppy,” asks began dropping down, ultimately dumping into the liquidity void created on the way up.

Furthermore, CryptoCon, a leading provider of cryptocurrency analysis, has highlighted the recent drop in Bitcoin’s value, which saw a 15% decline. This drop has allowed the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator to reset slightly, as it nears dangerously close to hitting the Mid-Top .35 line.

The CMF indicator is a technical analysis tool that measures buying and selling pressure in the market. When the CMF is above zero, buying pressure is stronger than selling pressure, and vice versa when it is below zero. The Mid-Top line at .35 represents the halfway point in the cycle for Bitcoin’s true gains.

According to CryptoCon, the mid-top cycle for Bitcoin is approaching soon, but it is only half of the “true gains” for Bitcoin in a cycle. This means there is still significant potential for Bitcoin to experience further gains in the market.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has experienced a volatile market over the past few days, with its price fluctuating between highs and lows. However, BTC has recently bounced back from a major trend line at $27,000 and is currently trading at $29,600, representing a profit of over 8% in the last 24 hours.

This latest surge in BTC’s price comes after the collapse of a major US bank, First Republic Bank. The news of this collapse may have contributed to the uptick in BTC’s price, as investors seek alternative investment options after the bank’s failure.

Another Bank Failure Tied To BTC’s Price Surge

Theto the trader and analyst, who goes by the pseudonym “CJ,” has identified what they believe to be the current parameters for the market. According to CJ, if Bitcoin’s price closes above 30k and the US dollar index (DXY) breaks to a range of 97-100, the market will likely reach the 33k liquidity level. However, if Bitcoin’s price rejects this level and closes below 29250, it could be a bearish re-test.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin has recently bounced from a key pivotal support level of $27,000, which is good news for bulls in the short term. However, the market is still uncertain whether Bitcoin will break above the $30,000 resistance again or experience another slump. 

On the other hand, the recent bank failure, as described by Nick Gerli, CEO and Founder of Reventure Consulting, has highlighted the potential risks associated with traditional banking and finance. This has led investors to question the stability of the traditional financial system and seek alternative options.

On the contrary to this situation, Bitcoin has been on the rise since the beginning of 2023, and some analysts believe that the current economic climate could be a contributing factor. The recent contraction in the money supply in the US has led to a decrease in available capital, which could lead investors to seek alternative investment options. 

With its decentralized nature and limited supply, Bitcoin has become an attractive option for investors looking to diversify their portfolios. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s recent price uptick can be attributed to several factors, including increased institutional adoption and growing mainstream acceptance. However, the current economic climate has undoubtedly played a role in Bitcoin’s recent surge in value.

As the economic outlook remains uncertain, many investors turn to Bitcoin as a safe haven asset. The cryptocurrency has been touted as a hedge against inflation and economic instability, and its recent price uptick could reflect these beliefs.

Bitcoin Highs Already Made For The Year?

The Puell Multiple, a metric used by cryptocurrency traders and analysts to gauge the value of Bitcoin, has recently made a perfect retest of its uptrend, according to CryptoCon, a trader and analyst of the crypto market. This retest suggests that the upward trend of Bitcoin remains intact and could potentially lead to much higher valuations in the future.

The Puell Multiple is calculated by dividing the daily issuance value of Bitcoin by the 365-day moving average of the daily issuance value. It is a useful metric for understanding the current state of Bitcoin’s mining ecosystem and can provide insights into the potential future direction of Bitcoin’s price.

With the Puell Multiple’s recent retests of its uptrend, CryptoCon suggests that the upward momentum of Bitcoin remains strong and could lead to even higher valuations in the future. This is welcome news for bulls eagerly anticipating a continued rise in Bitcoin’s price.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView.com 

The cryptocurrency market has experienced significant volatility in recent months, with the price of Bitcoin (BTC) dropping from its new yearly high of $31,000 to its current trading price of $27,300. This pullback has left Bitcoin at a crossroads, with traders waiting to see whether the key support level of $27,000 will hold or break.

However, Bitcoin is known for its volatility, and bid liquidity movement can provide valuable insights into market activity. In Q1/2023, a block of bid liquidity was identified in what appeared to be controlled by a single entity, which was named Notorious B.I.D, according to the research and analysis firm Material Indicators. 

Bitcoin Rally 2.0 On The Horizon?

This entity was successful in attracting more bids to fuel a Bitcoin rally, and the movement of bid liquidity became predictable over time. However, the game ended with a rug pull in the first week of March.

As of this writing, according to Materials,  there are indications that a similar entity may be active in the market again, with bid liquidity movement that looks similar to what was seen in Q1. While there is no way of knowing for sure if Notorious B.I.D. is back, it appears that somebody is using a large stack to play a similar game.

One of the key differences between what was seen in Q1 and what is being observed now is that the buy walls are changing size. This could be a distribution strategy, as the large buyer seeks to push the price up to a higher distribution range and ultimately use those bids as exit liquidity. 

According to the fire chart of the Material Indicator, there is a substantial bid wall situated just below the $26,000 mark. This bid wall may have the potential to prevent a further decline in Bitcoin’s price shortly, but only if the $27,000 support floor is broken. Despite this, Bitcoin’s current support level has remained stable, indicating that there is a possibility of a rebound to higher levels. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Bitcoin’s price may bounce back to higher levels.

BTC’s MVRV Reaches 11-Month High

According to Gaah, a researcher and analyst from the CryptoQuant Firm, the MVRV (market-value-to-realized-value) ratio is a key indicator of market sentiment and can provide valuable insights into investor behavior. The ratio is calculated by dividing the market capitalization of Bitcoin by its realized capitalization, which is the sum of the value of all Bitcoin transactions since they were last moved on-chain.

When the MVRV ratio is in the green quadrant, below a value of 1.44, it is considered to be in the accumulation zone. This indicates that there is decreased selling pressure in the market, as the realized capitalization of Bitcoin exceeds its market capitalization. In other words, investors are less motivated to sell their Bitcoin, as they believe that its true value is higher than its current market price.

Gaah notes that the MVRV ratio reached a high of 0.82 in December 2022, when Bitcoin was still trading at around $17,000. This is the same level that the ratio reached in 2018, just before Bitcoin experienced a significant drop in value. However, Gaah believes that the current market conditions are different and that the MVRV ratio is a reflection of the increasing institutional adoption of Bitcoin.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin (BTC) market has faced some resistance this week, according to a report by cryptocurrency analytics firm Glassnode. The market reverted from a weekly high of over $31,000 to a low of $27,000, signaling a potential correction in the market.

Despite this recent dip, Glassnode’s analysis shows that the opening to 2023 has been historically strong for Bitcoin, with remarkably few significant corrections. The largest correction seen so far has been -18.6%, a relatively small drawdown compared to past cycles.

Bitcoin Market Sees Transition From Loss To Profit

According to the report by Glassnode, the aggregate market for Bitcoin has confidently transitioned out of a period of unrealized loss and into one of unrealized profit. This is evidenced by the sharp divergence between supply held in profit versus supply held at a loss.

As this shift occurs, the incentive to take profits grows, also reflected in the ratio between supply in profit and supply at a loss. Glassnode’s analysis shows that this oscillator has achieved escape velocity in 2023, confirming the transition out of a regime of loss dominance near cycle lows. This phenomenon has only been observed on 415 out of 4,638 trading days, or just 9% of the time.

This shift in the market is significant because it suggests that investors are becoming more confident in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. As more investors move into a position of unrealized profit, they may be more likely to hold onto their investments rather than take profits and risk missing out on potential gains.

Will BTC Retest The $25,000 Support?

Altcoin Sherpa, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, recently shared his thoughts on the current state of Bitcoin. He believes that if the current market area fails, the next area up is around $25k. He also noted that the .382 fib level, a technical indicator, usually gets tapped as a retest eventually. Despite this potential dip, Altcoin Sherpa maintains a bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s market structure. 

On the same note, Michael Van de Pope, a crypto analyst and trader, suggests that the market is seeking a higher low (HL) in the weekly timeframe, potentially around the $26,500-27,000 range or even as low as $25,000. This suggests that there may be some downside risk in the short term.

However, Van de Pope notes that breaking back above $27,800 could lead to a strong upwards reaction for Bitcoin, potentially continuing the uptrend toward $29,000.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $27,300, representing a 0.8% decrease over the past 24 hours. Despite this drop, Bitcoin is holding above its last major resistance level of $27,100. However, some analysts are predicting a potential retest of the $25,000 support floor, which could lead to further downside potential for the largest cryptocurrency in the market.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView.com

In January of this year, Bitcoin broke above its 200-day MA for the first time since the end of 2021. This was a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency, as it had not seen such a signal in over a year. This breakout was a clear indication of Bitcoin’s bullish momentum and its potential for further growth in the future.

Additionally, Bitcoin retested the 200-day moving average in March and remained well above it, demonstrating its robust behavior. However, the leading cryptocurrency is approaching a lower-level retest at $28,000. Whether Bitcoin will withstand further price decline and continue its bullish trend or if a final shakeout is imminent.

Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle And Potential Dip Below The 200-Day MA

Recently, there has been speculation that Bitcoin’s price might be poised for a significant rally as spring arrives. However, the situation is not quite simple as with many things in the crypto world. 

According to the expert in the cryptocurrency industry, Mr. Ben Lily, the current halving cycle is an important factor to consider when evaluating Bitcoin’s price movements. When BTC comes off halving cycle lows, it commonly does not immediately clear the 200-day moving average (MA) and stays above it.

Instead, it tends to return below the 200-day MA before ultimately moving on to form all-time highs. This pattern can be observed in the chart below, which shows the 200-day MA (represented by the dark red line) and the orange circles, which indicate when the price dipped below the 200-day MA.

Furthermore, Lily argues that nothing suggests that the market should expect anything different this time. He believes a catalyst coming this summer will coincide with Bitcoin’s price dipping below the 200-day MA. 

FedNow Rollout And Bitcoin: A Tale Of Two Timing

Additionally, Ben Lily has provided further analysis on the potential impact of the upcoming rollout of the Federal Reserve’s CBDC, FedNow, on Bitcoin’s price movements. According to Lily, if the rollout occurs as scheduled in July, it could benefit BTC’s price trajectory.

However, Lily notes that in each of the last three halving cycles, Bitcoin’s price dipped below the 200-day moving average (MA) between 217 and 315 days before the halving itself. If this pattern holds for the current halving cycle, we can expect BTC’s price to dip below the 200-day MA sometime between June and August.

With FedNow set to roll out in the middle of that period, Lily suggests we can expect regulator “war drumming” to be at a fever pitch. This could lead to a final shakeout moment as Bitcoin drops below the 200-day MA, creating a higher low in the market.

At the moment of writing, Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is being traded at $28,000, indicating a decrease of over 2.5% in the last 24 hours. And, as reported yesterday by NewsBTC, the $27,700 line is key for Bitcoin, as a breakout below this level could signal a shift in the market sentiment and potentially lead to a further decline in price.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView.com