Author: Scott Matherson

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has highlighted what needs to happen for Bitcoin to climb to $76,000. If that doesn’t happen, he noted that the flagship crypto risks dropping significantly to levels not seen since the start of the year. 

How Bitcoin Could Rise To $76,000

Martinez mentioned in an X (formerly Twitter) post that Bitcoin will likely rise to $76,610 if it can reclaim $64,290 as support. However, if it fails to climb above $64,290, the crypto analyst added that Bitcoin might retest support at $51,970. Martinez drew this conclusion based on MVRV (Market Value To Realized Value) extreme deviation pricing bands, which showed $51,970 as the all-time mean. 

Bitcoin has recently maintained a tepid price movement and isn’t showing any sign that it can reclaim $64,290 as support for now. Instead, the flagship crypto looks likelier to retest the $51,970 price level, seeing as it is looking to break down below $60,000. However, despite Bitcoin looking to have a bearish outlook, crypto analyst Mikybull Crypto maintains that Bitcoin’s price action is bearish. 

In an X (formerly Twitter) post, he mentioned that BTC is having a “simple retest to weary the impatient trader.” “Nothing bearish as bears seem to amplify it,” he added. The analyst had previously predicted that Bitcoin could climb to $73,000 once it clears the $67,000 price level. 

BTC May Soon Resume Its Upward Trajectory

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Rekt Capital suggested that Bitcoin may soon be out of the clear, revealing that the Post-halving “Danger Zone” officially ends on May 13. The analyst had previously explained that this Danger Zone is the downside wick that Bitcoin experienced approximately 21 days after the Halving in 2016. 

In another X post, the analyst revealed that Bitcoin had repeated the “2016 history perfectly, offering a downside wick below the bottom of its current Re-Accumulation range within a three-week window after the halving.” Therefore, with this retracement out of the way, the flagship crypto looks primed for an upward trend. 

However, this move might not happen so soon since Rekt Capital mentioned the Reaccumulation period, which usually occurs after the Bitcoin halving. The crypto analyst noted that this period usually lasts up to five months. He added that this time could be different since this re-accumulation would develop around a new all-time high (ATH) area. 

While it is uncertain when this price rally might come, Rekt Capital suggested that Bitcoin might not drop below the $60,000 price level again. He claimed that a weekly close above $60,600 for Bitcoin “would continue to solidify this price level as a base of the Re-Accumulation Range. 

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at around $61,100, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. 

Crypto analyst Onchained recently provided valuable insights into an important metric that can be used to gauge the future trajectory of Bitcoin. The analyst suggested there was no cause to worry at the moment but highlighted what to watch out for to know the right time to exit the market. 

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders NUPL Turns Negative

In a blog post, the analyst noted that the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) for Bitcoin’s short-term holders recently turned negative. The analyst added that this signals fear among this category of investors, which is very much likely given Bitcoin’s current price action. The last time this trend occurred was shortly after the Spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved, with Bitcoin dropping from $49,000 to $38,000 following that occurrence. 

Related Reading: What Triggered The 6,350% Spike In XRP Long Liquidations Compared To Shorts?

While the short-term holders’ NUPL turning red again suggests that a significant price decline may be on the horizon, the analyst remarked that this price level may simply represent a significant support line. The real cause for concern might be when the NUPL for mid-term holders also turns negative. “It could indicate widespread market fear and serve as a crucial risk management indicator for exiting the market,” the analyst claimed. 

It is worth noting that the short-term holder’s NUPL being negative means they are currently seeing an unrealized loss in their investments. This could trigger a wave of sell-offs among these investors, mainly because of fear that Bitcoin’s price could further dip. However, based on the analyst’s analysis, this might not significantly lower Bitcoin’s price. 

Instead, market speculators should be more worried about the PUNL of mid-term holders (those who have been holding Bitcoin for 3 to 6 months). The PUNL also turning negative will “suggest widespread pessimism or negative sentiment.” This could lead to massive selling pressure on Bitcoin’s price as this category of investors might also offload their holdings out of fear.  

The Worst May Already Be Over

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez had previously shared a similar analysis to Onchained’s, noting that Bitcoin short-term holder’s (STH) realized price was at $59,800. The analyst warned back then that Bitcoin dropping below this level could trigger “notable Bitcoin price corrections.” Following his prediction, Bitcoin fell below $59,800, dropping to as low as $57,000. 

Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Says Ethereum Price Will Drop To $2,500, Here’s Why

However, the flagship crypto has since then recovered nicely above $60,000. Although Bitcoin is still showing signs of a bearish outlook, its quick recovery above $60,000 suggests that the worst might be over, and all the crypto token needs right now is a catalyst to spark a continuation of its bull run. 

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX’s co-founder and former CEO, also confirmed this belief, noting that Bitcoin has already found its local bottom. However, he predicted that Bitcoin will likely have a “range-bound price action between $60,000 and $70,000 until August.”