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Bitcoin Surges To New 26-Month High, ‘Whales Go Parabolic’ As Analyst Forecasts Rally Toward $60,500

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has experienced a surge of over 3.6% in the past 24 hours and an impressive 27% in the last month. These gains have propelled the Bitcoin price to reach a new 26-month high of $53,360 on Monday, signaling investors renewed optimism.

BTC Whales Make Waves

Adding to the bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin, crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlights the significant activity of the BTC whales, stating that “whales are going parabolic.” 

Notably, In the past month alone, more than 150 new BTC addresses have appeared, each with more than 1,000 BTC. This surge in whale activity indicates a heightened confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects and offers a positive outlook for its future price movements.

Bitcoin

Martinez emphasizes a “megaphone pattern” observed on Bitcoin’s daily chart. According to the analyst, this pattern suggests that if BTC maintains its position above the $50,000 level, a sustained close above $53,000 could catalyze a substantial rally toward the $60,520 mark. 

Bitcoin Rally Led By Leveraged Long Positions? 

As detailed in a recent Bloomberg report, BTC’s rise has been driven in part by a surge in spot demand and momentum traders capitalizing on a breakout after a period of consolidation, according to Chris Newhouse, a decentralized finance (DeFi) analyst at Cumberland Labs.

Newhouse highlights that the current price action has seen a relatively balanced level of liquidations, indicating that excessive short liquidations do not drive the recent rally. Instead, leveraged long positions have quickly replaced the liquidated shorts, suggesting a shift in sentiment toward bullishness.

Moreover, the report highlights that open interest for perpetual Bitcoin futures has experienced a noticeable increase, indicating growing market participation and interest in BTC derivatives. 

Simultaneously, Newhouse explains that short positions have been forced to close amid the latest rally, potentially a result of fresh long positions entering the market.

Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency’s ability to sustain its upward momentum and navigate key resistance levels will be crucial in determining its next growth phase.

In a further boost to Bitcoin’s optimism, MicroStrategy, the enterprise software firm known for its strategic Bitcoin purchases, announced that it has acquired an additional 3,000 cryptocurrency tokens this month for approximately $155.4 million. 

With a total Bitcoin holding of about $10 billion, MicroStrategy continues to demonstrate its confidence in its long-term value and potential.

Bitcoin

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Fidelity Director Analyzes Bitcoin Potential: Could It Hit $6 Trillion Market Cap?

In recent years, the debate surrounding Bitcoin’s (BTC) potential market share relative to gold has garnered significant attention, as recently approved Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) can bring Bitcoin significantly closer to gold in key metrics.

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, has put forward an analysis that sheds light on this subject. By examining the value of “monetary gold” and Bitcoin’s market capitalization, as well as considering the impact of halvings on Bitcoin’s supply, Timmer presents insights into the future dynamics of these two assets. 

Gold Vs Bitcoin

Timmer’s analysis begins by estimating the share of gold held by central banks and private investors for monetary purposes, excluding jewelry and industrial usage. While this estimation is not exact, based on data from the World Gold Council, Timmer suggests that monetary gold accounts for approximately 40% of the total above-ground gold.

Drawing upon his previous calculations, Timmer posits that Bitcoin has the potential to capture around a quarter of the monetary gold market, with monetary gold valued at around $6 trillion and Bitcoin’s market capitalization at $1 trillion.

Timmer further delves into the impact of Bitcoin halvings on its price. Historically, halvings have had a substantial effect on Bitcoin’s value. However, Timmer raises the hypothesis that diminishing returns may occur in the future as the incremental supply of new Bitcoin decreases.

By comparing the outstanding supply and incremental supply of Bitcoin with those of gold, Timmer demonstrates that the diminishing impact of the halvings is likely to be more pronounced in the future. 

As the number of coins available for mining dwindles, the influence of each subsequent halving event on Bitcoin’s price may diminish. This insight prompts Timmer to explore alternative ways to project Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

BTC’s Price Projections

To account for the diminishing impact of halvings, Timmer introduces the concept of a modified Stock To Flow (S2F) curve. This curve is derived by overlaying an asymptotic supply curve, representing the percentage of coins mined relative to the final supply cap, onto the original S2F curve.

Timmer proposes using a regression formula incorporating PlanB’s original S2F curve and the asymptotic supply curve as independent variables. This modified S2F curve aligns more closely with the supply dynamics of gold, reflecting a scenario in which Bitcoin’s scarcity advantage continues, but its impact on price gradually diminishes over time.

Bitcoin

Using the modified S2F model and considering the supply characteristics of gold, Timmer generates hypothetical price projections for Bitcoin that place the cryptocurrency at approximately $100,000 by the end of 2024.

According to Timmer, if Bitcoin were to capture a quarter of the monetary gold market, it would represent a remarkable shift in the global distribution of wealth, which would gradually drive up the cryptocurrency’s price over the coming years.

Bitcoin

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin ETFs Threaten Gold’s Dominance As Digitalization Trends Gain Momentum

In just over a month since their approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Bitcoin ETFs have swiftly gained traction in the market, posing a formidable challenge to the long-standing dominance of gold ETFs.

Bitcoin ETFs Gain Ground on Gold ETFs

The rapid rise of Bitcoin ETFs has led to a convergence in asset values, with BTC ETFs closing the gap with gold ETFs. Bitcoin ETFs hold approximately $37 billion in assets after only 25 trading days, while gold ETFs have accumulated $93 billion in over 20 years of trading. 

Bitcoin ETFs

In this regard, Bloomberg’s Senior Commodity Strategist, Mike McGlone, emphasizes the shifting landscape, stating, “Tangible Gold is Losing Luster to Intangible Bitcoin.” 

According to McGlone, the US stock market’s continued resilience, the US currency’s strength, and 5% interest rates have presented headwinds for gold. Moreover, as the world increasingly embraces digitalization, the emergence of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States adds further competition to the precious metal.

McGlone further states that while the bias for gold prices remains upward, investors who solely focus on gold may risk falling behind potential paradigm-shifting digitalization trends. 

Ultimately, McGlone suggests that investors should consider diversifying their portfolios by incorporating Bitcoin or other digital assets to stay ahead in the evolving investment landscape.

Bitcoin Rally Driven By Institutional Demand 

The success of Bitcoin ETFs is further demonstrated by recent data suggesting that the upward trend in Bitcoin prices is driven primarily by institutional demand. At the same time, retail participation appears to be declining.

According to analyst Ali Martinez, as the price of Bitcoin continues to hover between $51,800 and $52,100, there has been a noticeable decrease in the creation of new Bitcoin addresses daily, indicating a lack of retail participation in the current bull rally and highlighting the growing influence of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin ETFs

However, market expert Crypto Con points out a significant shift in Long-Term Bitcoin holder positions, signaling a potential downside movement. 

As seen in the chart below shared by Crypto Con, the position change line crossed below -50.00 for the first time in over a year, a pattern that has historically occurred at critical moments in Bitcoin’s market cycles. These moments include the cycle bottom, mid-top (which occurred only once), and the start/end of a cycle top parabola (which occurred most frequently).

Bitcoin ETFs

According to Crypto Con, this recent shift in long-term holder positions raises two possible scenarios: a mid-top or an imminent parabolic movement. Such a movement at this stage in the cycle is considered unusual. 

Primarily, it indicates that long-term Bitcoin holders are exiting their positions in significant numbers, possibly anticipating a market correction or a change in the overall trend.

Overall, the shift in Bitcoin holder positions and the decline in retail participation present contrasting dynamics in the current market landscape. While institutional demand continues to drive the price of Bitcoin higher, long-term holders appear to be taking profit or adjusting their positions. 

BTC chart

While BTC is currently trading at $51,800, it remains to be seen what the direction of the next move will be and how institutions will continue to influence the price action of the largest cryptocurrency as spot Bitcoin ETFs gain traction.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin All-Time High Ahead: Historical Pattern Signals 50% Chance Of Reaching $100K By August

Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency, has surged to a 26-month high, reaching $52,000 and reigniting predictions of surpassing its previous all-time high (ATH) of $69,000. 

The market has experienced a resurgence of bullish sentiments, fueled further by the recent adoption of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These have spurred notable growth within just one month of approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Bitcoin Poised For A Major Breakout? 

Investment manager and market expert Timothy Peterson, who recently made a bold claim on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), reinforces Bitcoin’s renewed optimism. 

Peterson stated that Bitcoin had achieved an almost exact 100% gain in 180 days, a feat that has occurred 41 times since 2015. In 78% of these instances, Bitcoin reached even higher price levels. 

Furthermore, Peterson’s analysis of historical data suggests that the average return for the next 180 days after such a gain was also approximately 100%.Based on this historical pattern, Peterson asserts that there is a 50% chance Bitcoin will reach the significant milestone of $100,000 by August. 

However, despite this possibility, as the halving event approaches, there could be another correction that, while not putting the bull run in jeopardy, could trigger significant liquidation rates as the hype surrounding the current uptrend mounts.

Pre-Halving Correction Looms

The upcoming halving event scheduled for April, combined with historical patterns, suggests that Bitcoin may experience one final correction before the bull run resumes, presenting a crucial moment for investors.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital emphasizes the significance of a pre-halving retrace, noting that historically, it tends to occur only a few weeks before the actual halving event. 

Looking back at previous halvings, such retracements have ranged from -38% in 2016 to -20% in 2020. Based on these patterns, a retracement of around 27% is possible in the current market scenario.

Bitcoin

If a retracement of this magnitude were to occur, it would place the Bitcoin price at approximately $37,900, as indicated in Rekt Capital’s pre-halving retrace chart. This level represents an important threshold for investors to accumulate the cryptocurrency before the next phase of the halving event and the anticipated bull run rally.

Key Resistance For BTC’s Trajectory

Bitcoin’s continued rise has brought its price to a critical juncture, with the current trading level of $52,100 catching the attention of the founders of blockchain data and intelligence platform Glassnode.

According to their analysis, historical data reveals that the $52,000 level has acted as a formidable resistance point on the weekly chart, making it a crucial threshold for Bitcoin’s trajectory. 

The platform’s founders suggest that a successful breach of this level could trigger a surge of buying pressure, potentially leading to a Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) scenario among investors.

Bitcoin

Overall, the future direction of BTC price remains uncertain, leaving investors to ponder whether the current uptrend will be sustained or if a potential pre-halving retrace will occur before resuming its upward trajectory to surpass its previous all-time high and reach the coveted $100,000 level.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin Price Alert: X Account’s Analysis Suggests Sub-$10K Drop – Here’s The Reasoning

Amid a significant Bitcoin price rally, reaching a new two-year high of $52,000, a renowned social media account known as WhaleWire has made a startling prediction.

The account, widely followed for its bold statements and news postings, has forecasted a staggering 99.99% chance of Bitcoin falling below $10,000, directly challenging the prevailing bullish sentiment.

 Clash Over Potential Bitcoin Price Crash

In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), WhaleWire has voiced concerns about sustainability and alleged manipulation through fraud and price manipulation. The account accuses mainstream media and self-proclaimed Bitcoin enthusiasts, often referred to as “moon boy scammers,” of perpetuating an upward price narrative to allegedly serve their interests.

However, not everyone is convinced by WhaleWire’s claims. In response to the account’s recent prediction, a user on social media accused WhaleWire of being a liar, citing a previous forecast from August 2022 when the account asserted that Bitcoin would undoubtedly drop below $20,000. 

Ironically, Bitcoin did experience a decline below that threshold a few weeks later, lending some credibility to WhaleWire’s track record.

WhaleWire continues to express skepticism and calls out the so-called “Bitcoin maximalists” who exhibit excessive greed and euphoria. The account suggests that recent price movements, including Bitcoin briefly touching $50,000 amid concerns over Tether’s money printing, are deliberate maneuvers to trap bullish investors. 

WhaleWire claims that retail investors are now heavily invested in Bitcoin, anticipating further gains, only to be blindsided by a subsequent price rug-pull.

Doubling down on its conviction, WhaleWire has announced that it has increased its short positions, surpassing its $69,000 short. He believes that the ongoing rally will mark the top of what he refers to as the “echo bubble run”, which he originally predicted when Bitcoin was valued at $16,000.

Bullish Optimism Builds 

As the Bitcoin price continues its uptrend, a crypto analyst operating under the pseudonym “Mags” has taken to social media to share an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin. 

As per Mags’ analysis, Bitcoin is currently trading above the critical 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on a weekly chart, a feat never achieved in previous cycles before the halving event.

Traditionally, the 0.618 level has proven to be a formidable resistance zone, acting as a significant hurdle on Bitcoin’s path to reaching its all-time high (ATH). Mags believes that if Bitcoin successfully closes above the 0.618 level, which is currently valued at $48,500, it could signify an unprecedented bullish breakthrough.

Adding further weight to the bullish sentiment is the analysis provided by Ali Martinez. Martinez highlights a noteworthy trend: the amount of Bitcoin held in known cryptocurrency exchange wallets has plummeted to its lowest level in six years, with a total of only 2.34 million BTC remaining.

Bitcoin price

This substantial decrease in Bitcoin holdings on exchanges suggests a growing inclination among investors to move their BTC into secure, long-term storage solutions. 

According to Martinez, this shift away from exchanges implies a potential shift towards a more “hodling-centric” approach, where investors aim to hold their Bitcoin for extended periods rather than actively trading it.

Amidst the divergence of opinions and conflicting perspectives from both bullish and bearish investors, the ultimate outcome remains uncertain. The Bitcoin price action, as the largest cryptocurrency in the market, continues its notable uptrend, challenging the bearish predictions put forth by WhaleWire and others.

As the debate rages on, time will reveal whether WhaleWire’s forecast proves accurate or if the current bullish momentum will persist, further solidifying Bitcoin’s position as a dominant force in the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin price

Currently, BTC is trading at $51,600, up 5.4% in the last 24 hours and over 18% in the last seven days.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Inflationary Concerns Rise As US CPI Exceeds Predictions, Bitcoin Price Reacts

The latest US inflation data significantly impacted the Bitcoin price and most of the cryptocurrency market, with some exceptions. According to a report from the Labor Department, inflation rose more than expected in January, driven by higher shelter prices.

Furthermore, the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the prices consumers face for goods and services across the economy, saw a 0.3% increase for the month. On a 12-month basis, the CPI stood at 3.1%, slightly lower than December’s 3.4%.

Bitcoin Price Retreats Amid Higher-Than-Expected CPI Figures

According to recent reports, the higher-than-expected CPI figures could pose challenges for the Federal Reserve (Fed), as officials anticipate inflation to recede and reach their 2% annual target. The central bank aims to adjust monetary policy, which has been tight over two decades. 

However, the January increase in inflation may delay the Fed’s plans to ease rates, as it will require more data before initiating a rate-cutting cycle. This outcome disappointed those who expected inflation to decrease and prompted a reassessment of the timing for potential rate adjustments.

On this matter, market intelligence platform Santiment reported that the 3.1% CPI result caused market cap losses in cryptocurrency and equities markets. The Bitcoin price, which had breached the $50,000 mark for the first time in over two years, has fallen below $49,000 in response. 

According to the crypto platform’s analysis, this mild retrace will likely polarize crowd sentiment, potentially leading to significant panic sales. In such a scenario, the justification for dip buying becomes more viable, but sentiment may turn negative. 

Bitcoin’s Market Cycle Patterns

Market expert Crypto Con has identified a striking pattern in Bitcoin’s market cycles, specifically concerning the 20 Week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Despite mounting concerns regarding inflation data, the analysis suggests that the Bitcoin price behavior tends to follow a consistent six-step pattern, with significant implications for support and potential correction levels.

According to Crypto Con’s analysis, Bitcoin’s price movement in each market cycle has adhered to a similar pattern involving the 20-week EMA. The pattern unfolds as follows: 

First, as seen in the chart below, the Bitcoin price breaks above the moving average, marking the beginning of a new cycle and a notable uptrend. However, after the completion of the initial run, the price retraces and falls below the moving average, signaling a temporary shift in sentiment.

Despite the temporary setback, Bitcoin’s price then breaks above the moving average once more, indicating the start of a true rally and resumption of the upward trend. At this stage, price action creates a false retest of support, narrowly missing the moving average as a crucial support level. This false retest is a common occurrence in Bitcoin’s market cycles.

Bitcoin price

Following the false retest, Bitcoin embarks on a second run, representing a further advancement in the market cycle. Bitcoin’s price is currently positioned during this phase. 

According to the analysis made by Crypto Con, the full correction in Bitcoin’s price may not need to be as deep, as the moving average currently sits at approximately $40,000. 

Ultimately, the analysis’s suggestion that the Bitcoin price may not dip below the $40,000 level during the ongoing bull run, even in the face of anticipated corrections, is particularly encouraging for bullish investors. 

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin is trading at 48,600, down 3% in the last 24 hours.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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BREAKING: Bitcoin Price Hits $50,000 – The Big Question: How Much Higher Can BTC Go?

The Bitcoin price has experienced a significant surge, surpassing the $50,000 mark as Wall Street exchange-traded funds (ETFs) gained approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 11. 

This bullish momentum, coupled with increased ETF demand, has propelled Bitcoin into a fully-formed bull run just months ahead of the anticipated halving event, which is expected to further amplify the ongoing uptrend.

Wall Street ETFs Drive Bitcoin Demand

In a recent CNBC interview with Anthony Pompliano, it was revealed that Wall Street ETFs are buying approximately 12.5 times more Bitcoin per day than the network can produce. 

This surge in demand from institutional investors has contributed to the price appreciation of Bitcoin. Pompliano asserts that Bitcoin has become Wall Street’s preferred asset and predicts that the increased demand through ETFs could lead to a significant rise in its price.

On the other hand, analytics firm Material Indicators has identified $53 million in Bitcoin buy orders stacked at the $50,000 level on the Binance order book. This substantial demand indicates strong investor interest in Bitcoin at this price point. 

Bitcoin price

However, the firm believes that a price retest of support levels may be imminent, although the timing remains uncertain. 

Bitcoin Price Rally Faces Potential Correction?

If the Bitcoin price successfully breaks above the $50,000 level, Material Indicators anticipate minimal resistance on the path to $52,000 and $58,000. This scenario raises the possibility of a substantial short squeeze, as investors who have bet against the asset may be forced to cover their positions, further driving up the price. 

However, the highly anticipated inflation report scheduled for Tuesday could potentially trigger a correction in the market, as its findings may impact investor sentiment and market dynamics.

Overall, Bitcoin’s price surge above $50,000 is attributed to the approval of Wall Street ETFs and the subsequent increase in institutional demand. The influx of capital from these ETFs has contributed to Bitcoin’s bullish momentum, with expectations of further price appreciation. 

As BTC continues to capture Wall Street’s attention, market participants eagerly await further developments and potential Bitcoin price movements to the upside, with potential corrections ahead. 

Bitcoin price

Currently, the Bitcoin price has risen over 3.4% in the past 24 hours, coupled with a seven-day uptrend of 16%.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin Price Soars, Smashing Through $45,000 On The Back Of Two Key Factors

In the past 14 days, the Bitcoin price has displayed a significant uptrend of 14.5%, signaling a resurgence in bullish sentiment. This rally comes as Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been trading for nearly a month, with the market already factoring in this development. As a result, Bitcoin is back on its natural course, gaining momentum ahead of the scheduled halving in April.

Currently, Bitcoin has not only regained its bullish momentum after a brief dip to the $38,500 level but has also surpassed the $45,300 mark. It now edges closer to its 25-month high of $49,000, with the $50,000 milestone within reach. 

Achieving this level would significantly narrow the gap between the current price and Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH) of $69,000. However, what are the main catalysts behind this uptrend, and how far can the Bitcoin price climb?

Reduction Of GBTC Flows And Net Positive BTC Spot ETF Inflows

According to the latest analysis by QCP Capital, two key factors are driving Bitcoin’s upward trajectory: 

Daily outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) have decreased from $500-600 million to $100-200 million. Simultaneously, total inflows across all Bitcoin ETFs are now positive. This shift in the GBTC flows, and the emergence of net positive BTC spot ETF inflows contribute to the current bullish trend, according to the crypto trading firm’s analysis

Additionally, notable price movements have been observed around “spot ETF fixings.” Between 3-4 pm EST, QCP has recorded that the Bitcoin price tends to tick higher, possibly due to the one-hour observation window used by the BlackRock ETF (IBIT) to calculate its Net Asset Value (NAV). 

Conversely, downward pressure is typically observed after 4 pm EST as GBTC employs a point fix, leading market makers to sell around and after the fix.

Strong Performance In US Equities

Despite the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and higher US yields driven by robust February Non-Farm Payroll data (353k actual vs. 180k expected), US equities continue outperforming. 

Companies like NVDA and META have rallied due to strong earnings and positive headlines. Underallocated investors will likely continue buying any equities dips as they chase returns. 

According to the analysis, this bullish sentiment is expected to “spill” over into BTC and Ethereum (ETH), further fueled by the upcoming BTC halving and the ETH spot ETF narratives.

Ultimately, the trading firm assesses significant interest in accumulators, which enable investors to purchase Bitcoin or ETH at a “substantial discount” to the current spot price. This strategy is believed to present an attractive opportunity for bullish investors looking to build long positions throughout the year.

Bitcoin Price Faces Strong Barriers On Its Way To $50,000

Despite the uptrend, notable resistance levels could impede further upward movement and potentially lead to a consolidation phase for Bitcoin. 

To assess the nearest-term resistances accurately, the 1-hour chart indicates potential price paths for Bitcoin in the coming days if these bearish thresholds are breached.

In the immediate time frame, the $45,500 level emerges as Bitcoin’s next resistance level. This level previously marked a correction in the Bitcoin price shortly after the introduction of ETF trading.

Bitcoin price

Subsequently, the next target would be the $46,600 level if the immediate resistance at $45,500 is surpassed. However, while these two thresholds may present challenges, no significant resistance levels are evident on Bitcoin’s hourly chart until the $48,500 level. 

This particular level represents the final hurdle for Bitcoin before reclaiming its previous high reached on January 11, immediately following the approval of ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Considering the combined factors of Grayscale’s reduced sell-off and the overall performance of the equity market, alongside renewed investor sentiment, Bitcoin could potentially surge to previous highs and even surpass them, marking new highs since the end of the crypto winter. 

The key factor to be seen is how Bitcoin’s price will respond when encountering these highlighted resistance walls and whether the buying pressure will be sufficient to propel Bitcoin back on track toward the bullish momentum observed at the beginning of 2024.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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What’s Ahead For Bitcoin? Expert Forecasts Pre-Halving Rally As Early As Next Week

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency in the market, has seen its price hover between $42,000 and $43,000, halting its recovery from the dip below $38,500. 

With the upcoming halving event scheduled for April, market experts and crypto analysts such as Rekt Capital are observing historical patterns that suggest an interesting price action scenario, potentially igniting another significant price surge for Bitcoin.

Pre-Halving Rally For Bitcoin Imminent? 

Rekt Capital, known for its expertise in analyzing market trends, highlights the significance of historical patterns about previous halving events. These patterns reveal a consistent trend of substantial rallies leading up to the halving, followed by a short period of correction and consolidation before a major bull run and peak.

According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin should commence its Pre-Halving Rally as early as next week if history indicates. 

This rally, driven by investors “buying the hype” in anticipation of the halving, aims to capitalize on the price surge and realize profits by “selling the news.” Short-term traders and speculators often exploit this hype-driven rally and sell their positions.

Bitcoin

The subsequent selling pressure contributes to a phenomenon known as the pre-halving retrace. This retrace typically occurs a couple of weeks before the actual halving event. 

In previous halving cycles, the pre-halving retrace reached depths of -38% in 2016 and -20% in 2020. It is worth noting that this phase can last for several weeks, introducing uncertainty among investors regarding whether the halving will act as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin’s price.

Overall, the historical patterns observed by Rekt Capital point to the possibility of a pre-halving rally in the coming weeks, followed by a correction period known as the pre-halving retrace. 

While past performance is no guarantee of future results, these historical trends provide valuable guidance on how the price of Bitcoin may perform in the coming weeks and days before the halving.

Long-Term Holder Support And ETF Buying Pressure

Despite expected short-term gains for BTC, Crypto Con has recently drawn attention to a historical trend in the Bitcoin market. According to Crypto Con, no Bitcoin cycle has ever escaped a retest of the 150% long-term holder support line. 

According to the analyst, this line has acted as a crucial level of support during various market cycles. Even during the unprecedented black swan event and subsequent recovery in 2020, the price retested this line as support.

By analyzing this metric, Crypto Con suggests that based on historical patterns, Bitcoin’s price may need approximately $31,300 to retest the long-term holder support line. 

Bitcoin

The anticipated impact of ETF buying pressure on Bitcoin’s price is counterbalancing the argument for further corrections. Introducing ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) into the cryptocurrency market is a relatively new development. As such, the effects of ETF inflows on Bitcoin’s price remain to be seen and are a subject of ongoing observation.

While the potential retest of the long-term holder support line may create temporary price fluctuations, proponents of Bitcoin as an investment opportunity view such a scenario as a buying opportunity. 

Ultimately, Crypto Con believes that those who believe in the long-term prospects of Bitcoin may choose to take advantage of any price dips resulting from a retest of support.

Bitcoin

BTC trades at $42,800, up a slight 0.4% in the past 24 hours as of this writing. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Expert Analysis: Bitcoin ‘Bottom Is Not In’, Potential $30K Retest On The Horizon

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, closed January above the $40,000 threshold, signaling positive price action. However, market expert Justin Bennett suggests that Bitcoin’s bottom has yet to be reached. 

Bennett’s analysis highlights the possibility of further price declines, with Tether’s stablecoin USDT dominance (USDT.D) chart indicating potential downward movements. 

Tether Dominance Signals Concerns For BTC’s Price

Bitcoin’s recent price recovery and ability to surpass the $40,000 level have provided optimism among investors. Nevertheless, Bennett believes further price declines could follow a retest of the mid $44,000 range. 

Bennett highlights the inverse relationship between Tether dominance and Bitcoin. According to his analysis, the levels on the Tether dominance chart since October have been reliable indicators for Bitcoin’s price movements. 

Bitcoin

According to Bennett’s analysis, as depicted in the chart above, Tether’s dominance may experience a potential increase from its current level of 6%. This increase could bring it closer to the 8% mark. 

In such a scenario, Bitcoin’s performance would likely move in the opposite direction, indicating potential price declines soon.

On January 25, Bennett suggested that Bitcoin could drop another 20% from its current levels, which would place it around $30,000. If this scenario plays out, it would be crucial for Bitcoin bulls to defend the $30,000 level to maintain the current bullish structure.

A drop below $29,000 would give bears a stronger position, with only three major support lines remaining at $28,400, $25,900, and $24,000 before a potential retest of the $20,000 mark. 

The performance of these support levels and Bitcoin’s ability to withstand increased selling pressure will be key factors to monitor. The future market sentiment will also play a significant role in determining Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Bitcoin Witnesses Stellar Accumulation Trend

Despite the possibility of further price drops, renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez has shed light on a notable trend in BTC’s recent accumulation streak by investors.

According to Ali Martinez’s analysis, Bitcoin is experiencing a significant accumulation streak, rivaling some of the most notable periods observed over the past few years. 

The Accumulation Trend Score, a metric that gauges the buying activity of larger entities, has remained consistently high, hovering near 1 for the past four months.

Bitcoin

This suggests that influential market participants are actively accumulating Bitcoin, signaling their confidence in the long-term potential of the cryptocurrency. 

Martinez’s observations further indicate that Bitcoin’s price range around $42,560 has emerged as a highly significant interest zone. 

Within this range, an impressive total of 912,626 BTC has been transacted. This is expected to be a significant support level, potentially preventing further downside movements and fostering increased buying interest.

These trends collectively contribute to a positive market outlook, suggesting that despite potential price drops, Bitcoin remains an attractive asset for long-term investment.

Bitcoin

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin ETFs Experience Day 12 Reversal, GBTC Selling Slows, Fidelity And Blackrock Garner $400 Million

Bitcoin has witnessed a positive turn of events as it reclaimed the $43,000 mark on Tuesday, thanks to a significant reduction in selling pressure from asset manager Grayscale. The reversal in Bitcoin ETFs during day 12 of trading has seen more inflows than outflows. Fidelity and Blackrock recorded a combined $400 million across their Bitcoin ETFs under the ticker names FBTC and IBIT, respectively. 

Bitcoin ETFs Record Third-Largest Money Day

According to market expert James Mullarney, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has experienced a noticeable reduction in selling pressure, as reflected by the slowing down of GBTC selling. 

Day 12 of trading showed a substantial inflow compared to outflow, marking the third-largest money day ever in net money flow, bringing in $256 million. 

Bitcoin ETFs

Mullarney further states that adding new Bitcoin ETFs has contributed to a net positive of $1 billion in ETFs, with an estimated 25,000 Bitcoin added to the market. The new Bitcoin ETFs now hold a total of 150,000 BTC in aggregate.

Miners Sell Most Coins Since May 2023

Despite these positive developments with Bitcoin ETFs, there is an ongoing increase in selling pressure from miners. A recent CryptoQuant report reveals that miners have sold the most coins since May 2023. 

The flow of coins from miner wallets to spot exchanges reached its highest value since May 16, 2023, with over 4,000 Bitcoin amounting to approximately $173 million in selling pressure.

Bitcoin ETFs

Although miners have increased their selling activity, CryptoQuant asserts that the market has absorbed this pressure “calmly”. It is important to note that the reserves in mining portfolios have remained at the same level since the beginning of January. 

CryptoQuant highlights that it is crucial to consider that these actions do not necessarily indicate a “dump” by miners. The firm concluded:

It is true that there were several interactions with exchanges during this period, some quite significant, but this does not correspond to a “dump” on the part of these entities. Furthermore, it is necessary to be careful when reading messages like “miners are dumping coins”, this analyzes may not take into account the return of these coins to miners’ wallets. 

New All-Time High For Bitcoin After November?

Renowned crypto analyst, CryptoCon, cautions against the belief that “this time is different” for Bitcoin, highlighting the recurring nature of its market cycles. With three completed cycles and a fourth underway, CryptoCon emphasizes that historical patterns, including the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, have consistently influenced Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

CryptoCon emphasizes that Bitcoin’s price movements have followed distinct cycles, and he warns against the notion that each cycle will deviate significantly from the preceding ones. 

Despite the anticipation surrounding the launch of ETFs, historical evidence suggests that they have coincided with local price highs rather than instant new all-time highs. 

CryptoCon argues that the repeated occurrence of such patterns should serve as a reminder that “this time is different” often proves to be an illusory belief.

According to CryptoCon’s analysis, a period of sideways movement is expected to commence soon after the completion of the ongoing correction, which saw BTC retrace to the $38,500 level on Tuesday, January 23. 

This phase is predicted to last approximately four months, culminating in a second early price peak in June 2024, according to Crypto Con. 

Following this, the analyst foresees the possibility of new all-time highs occurring after November 28th, 2024. However, it is crucial to note that the cycle’s peak will occur within approximately 21 days from this date, around November 28th, 2025.

Bitcoin ETFs

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Crash Ahead: Expert Predicts Testing $20K Before Rebound

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency in the market, experienced a price recovery on Friday; however, industry experts anticipate a further test of sub-$30,000 levels in the near term. 

The prolonged downtrend observed over the past fourteen days, coupled with mounting selling pressure, has raised concerns about the sustainability of the recent rebound.

BTC’s Local Bottom Predicted

Chris Burniske, co-founder of a New York-based venture crypto firm, highlights several factors contributing to the anticipated downward movement of Bitcoin. 

Burniske suggests that the consolidation phase may extend longer than expected due to many variables, including crypto-market dynamics, macroeconomic conditions, adoption trends, and new product developments. 

Burniske offers his outlook on Bitcoin, stating that a local bottom could be reached in the $30,000 to $36,000 range. However, he wouldn’t be surprised if the cryptocurrency tests the mid-to-high $20,000 before recovery occurs, leading to a renewed push toward previous all-time highs. 

Burniske cautions that the path to such a recovery will likely be volatile, marked by potential fakeouts, and may span several months.

The market expert advises investors to exercise patience during this period of uncertainty. Burniske suggests that other cryptocurrencies may experience more significant percentage declines if his predictions hold Bitcoin. Burniske further stated:

Before you get mad with, “We’re just getting this cycle started, Chris!!!” Mostly agree, ~called the cycle bottom in Nov 2022 and continue to believe the long-term trend remains robust. Have also seen a lot of crypto volatility over the last decade+…. recently, I’ve specifically been discussing a local top and local low, not a cycle-wide top and low. 

Buy Signal For Bitcoin

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has provided insights into potential price movements for Bitcoin in its latest analysis conducted on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter). 

Martinez’s assessment indicates that the TD Sequential indicator recently flashed a buy signal on the daily chart, coinciding with Bitcoin’s current position above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at approximately the $40,000 level. 

Bitcoin

According to Martinez, if Bitcoin surpasses the $40,550 resistance level, it may trigger an upswing with a target price of $43,000. This bullish scenario implies a potential price rally for Bitcoin soon. 

However, the analyst also highlights the importance of closely monitoring the 100SMA support level, as a breach of this level could have significant implications for the cryptocurrency’s price trajectory.

Martinez cautions that if the 100SMA support level is breached, it might result in Bitcoin experiencing a downward move toward the $33,300 level. This potential downside scenario indicates a critical support level that, if broken, could lead to increased selling pressure and a bearish sentiment in the market.

Bitcoin

At the time of writing, BTC’s price has recovered 3.8% over the past 24 hours, resulting in a current trading price of $41,400.

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$130M Silk Road Bitcoin Stash To Be Sold By US Government

Since mid-January Bitcoin (BTC) has been facing mounting selling pressure from various market players. This includes asset manager Grayscale, bankrupt crypto exchange FTX, and now, the US government, which is set to auction off a substantial amount of Bitcoin seized from the infamous dark web marketplace Silk Road.

Sale Of Confiscated Silk Road Bitcoin

The US government has filed a notice to sell approximately $130 million worth of Bitcoin confiscated from Silk Road. The filing states that the United States intends to dispose of the forfeited property as directed by the United States Attorney General.

Individuals or entities, except for the defendants in the case, claiming an interest in the forfeited property must file an ancillary petition within 60 days of the initial publication of the notice. 

Once all ancillary petitions have been addressed or the filing period has expired, the United States will obtain clear title to the property, enabling them to warrant good title to subsequent purchasers or transferees.

The ongoing selling pressure on BTC has resulted in a sharp 20% correction over the past 10 days. This trend is expected to continue and further amplify the selling pressure. Adding to the situation, asset manager Grayscale, while slowing down its selling activities, continues to transfer a significant amount of Bitcoin to Coinbase. 

Bitcoin

According to data from Arkham Intelligence, Grayscale recently sent an additional 10,000 BTC worth $400 million to Coinbase. 

Since the approval of the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), Grayscale has deposited a total of 103,134 BTC ($4.23 billion) to Coinbase Prime. Currently, Grayscale holds 510,682 BTC ($20.43 billion).

Ideal Buying Opportunities? 

Adam Cochran, a prominent market expert, has provided insights into the recent price action and the expectations of Bitcoin buyers. Cochran highlights that aggregate open interest (OI) for BTC has decreased by 17% from recent highs but remains around 20% higher than the averages observed during more stable market ranges. 

Cochran notes that the market has seen attempts to catch falling prices, suggesting a mix of “sophisticated” and leveraged buyers.

Cochran further observes that retail investors are driven by narratives surrounding the ETF and halving events, leading them to buy dips on leverage. However, many investors remain unconvinced about the market’s direction and are waiting for a clear entry point, according to Cochran’s analysis. 

Notably, Cochran highlights that the current funding rates do not indicate a bearish sentiment, even in options trading, suggesting an expectation of a bottom formation shortly.

The market’s dynamics are influenced by emotions and probabilities, and Cochran believes that too many participants are overexposing themselves emotionally by trying to catch the bottom of the market on each dip. 

This behavior has increased the likelihood that the recent price action may not mark the bottom yet. Cochran suggests that a sentiment reset, a decline in the 3-month annualized basis by around 25%, and a further decrease in open interest would provide a healthier environment for major plays in the market.

Ultimately, Cochran emphasizes the need for a reset in expectations, highlighting that a period of doom and despair is necessary for market participants to reassess their positions. 

Cochran points out that a range between $35,000 and $37,000 BTC could be a suitable level for larger spot buys in the longer term. However, Cochran also notes that a potential drop to the $28,000 to $32,000 range could provide ideal conditions for confident, leveraged deployment.

Bitcoin

Currently, BTC is trading at $39,800, up a slight 0.6% in the past 24 hours, but down over 14% in the past fourteen days.

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Bitcoin Price At Risk? Grayscale’s $335M Coinbase Transfer Stirs $30,000 Plunge Potential

The Bitcoin price has experienced a notable shift as selling pressure mounts, with BTC bears gaining the upper hand. Asset manager Grayscale, the owner and manager of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), is a significant contributor to this trend. 

Since the trading of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) began on January 12, Grayscale has been on a selling spree, as evidenced by substantial transfers of BTC to the United States-based crypto exchange Coinbase.

Bitcoin Price Under Pressure As Grayscale Selling Spree Continues

According to Akrham Intelligence data, in addition to the previously reported 69,994 BTC ($2.9 billion) transfers, Grayscale sent an additional 8,593,075 BTC (approximately $335.19 million) to the exchange on Tuesday, suggesting the possibility of further selling activities.

Bitcoin price

These developments have affected the Bitcoin price, which has experienced a significant downtrend, declining by 20% over the past week and a half. 

On Tuesday, the largest cryptocurrency dropped as low as $38,500, placing considerable pressure on a crucial support level. Despite the bearish pressure, the $38,500 support level has demonstrated resilience so far, with the cryptocurrency rebounding to $39,300 at the time of writing. 

Nevertheless, the duration of Grayscale’s selling spree remains uncertain, and if market sentiment continues to turn negative, Bitcoin could potentially revisit the $30,000 mark. This figure is just above the key $29,000 level that marked the beginning of the bull run that took Bitcoin to its 22-month high of $49,000 on January 11th.

Bears On The Rise

If the $38,500 threshold succumbs to Grayscale’s selling pressure and profit-taking, market observers should closely monitor the $37,750 level as the next resistance. 

Failure to hold above this level would open the door to a potential decline toward the major resistance at $35,600, which could further prevent a dip to the next support level at $33,000.

However, if these support levels are breached and the Bitcoin price continues its downtrend, the next significant key levels to watch for bullish momentum would be $29,000 to $30,000. A breakdown below these levels could signal an end to the current bull market structure and grant the bears the upper hand in the mid-term, at least until the anticipated halving event in April. 

Historically, halving events have acted as major catalysts for the Bitcoin price, and their influence has been demonstrated.

As the Bitcoin market faces intensified selling pressure and Grayscale’s ongoing selling spree, market participants remain cautious about the potential for a significant price plunge. The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can regain its bullish momentum or if it will succumb to further downward pressure.

Bitcoin price

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Expert Analysis: Six Factors Suggest Bitcoin Price Won’t Drop Below $37,800

In the past month, the Bitcoin price has experienced a significant decline after reaching a 22-month high of $49,000. Currently, the largest cryptocurrency has fallen below the crucial $40,000 mark, raising concerns about the prospects of the ongoing bull run and the overall bullish market structure. 

However, there are indications that the bottom of the current downtrend may be near, potentially setting the stage for a potential price reversal.

Bitcoin Price To Avoid Plummeting To Low $30,000s

Market analyst Marco Johanning sheds light on the situation, offering insights into the Bitcoin price movement. Johanning suggests that it won’t be long until Bitcoin reclaims the $41,500 level or potentially rises from a lower level if a specific scenario unfolds. 

According to Johanning, Bitcoin will finally encounter significant liquidity on the downside. Notably, the price has touched around below $39,000 multiple times, indicating the presence of substantial liquidity at these lows. 

Moreover, Johanning addresses the skepticism surrounding the price of around $37,800, arguing against widespread expectations of a drop into the low $30,000 range. 

Johanning emphasizes that the primary liquidity lies below $40,000 and is not in the low $30,000 range. Traders profited from the low $30,000 range have likely adjusted their stop orders to protect their gains, creating a layer of support below the recent equal lows. 

As the price starts hitting these stop orders, automatic selling occurs, further down the price until it encounters significant buy pressure. The analyst points out a daily order block at $37,700 and high timeframe (HTF) support at $38,5000, indicating the potential for notable buy pressure in these price regions. 

Johanning also highlights the likelihood of filling Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gaps and Imbalances, with the next imbalance anticipated below $33,000.

Short Squeeze Rally Imminent? 

According to Johanning, the prevailing sentiment reveals many bears waiting to short a market dump. Johanning predicts that a short squeeze could occur once the price reverses, leading to a rapid price increase.

In terms of Fibonacci retracement levels, Johanning suggests that since the Bitcoin price has already lost the $40,200 level, it could potentially fall to the 0.5% Fibonacci level, which coincides with those above the $37,800 level. 

Johanning speculates that the price may briefly touch $37,800 before closing above the HTF support level of $38,500, setting the stage for a potential upward movement.

The recent downtrend in Bitcoin’s price has raised concerns about continuing the bull run. However, market analyst Marco Johanning presents several key arguments supporting the possibility of a price reversal. 

Bitcoin price

With Bitcoin’s current price at $38,900, there is a possibility of increased buying pressure in this region. The support wall at $38,5000 has demonstrated resilience thus far, and its performance will be closely observed. 

If the support wall fails to hold, the market will observe how the $37,800 price level performs and whether it aligns with the analyst’s thesis.

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Bitcoin Long Positions Surge On Bitfinex: Whales Add 4,230 BTC, Signaling Potential Price Reversal

In a surprising turn of events, the approval of spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has not yielded the anticipated immediate upside impact on the Bitcoin price. 

Contrary to expectations within the crypto community, BTC has experienced a sharp drop of over 16% since the ETF approval on Wednesday, January 11, dipping below the key $40,000 level. The failure of BTC bulls to hold the support level has led to a testing phase at the $38,000 level, accompanied by a 4.5% price drop within the past 24 hours.

Bitfinex Whales Buck The Trend

Amidst the market volatility, according to Datamish, Bitfinex whales have accumulated Bitcoin long positions since November 2023. This accumulation of approximately 4,230 BTC since January 17 marks the first sustained increase in Bitfinex BTC long positions following a sharp decline in November last year. 

Bitcoin

However, the recent downturn in the BTC price can be partly attributed to increased selling pressure from miners and asset manager Grayscale. Grayscale has notably increased its BTC sell-off since the ETF trading commenced. 

Transferring a significant amount of BTC from the Grayscale Trust address to Coinbase, totaling 69,994 BTC ($2.9 billion), has influenced the market dynamics. 

Additionally, reports indicate substantial sell-offs of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust GBTC shares, including a notable sale of 22 million GBTC shares by the FTX estate, worth nearly $1 billion. 

Bitcoin Liquidation Zones Wiped Off

The impact of Grayscale’s sell-off is evident in CoinGlass’ liquidation heatmap, which shows notable liquidation zones being wiped off in the 1-week chart. 

While Grayscale’s BTC dump has contributed to the price drop, the increased accumulation of BTC long positions on Bitfinex indicates a potential change in sentiment. A price reversal could occur if the $38,000 support line holds, pushing BTC back above $40,000.

Bitcoin

Furthermore, excluding Grayscale, institutional investors and asset managers involved in the ETF market have collectively acquired over 86,320 BTC at an average price of $42,000, representing a substantial $3.63 billion investment. 

Market experts such as Ali Martinez suggest that these institutions are likely to adopt a strategic, long-term view rather than engage in peak purchases. This level of institutional investment underscores the growing recognition of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class and signifies confidence in its long-term growth potential.

Bitcoin

Currently, the Bitcoin price is at $38,800, reflecting a substantial year-to-date decline of over 12% and a 9.7% drop in the past seven days. The duration and extent of the selling pressure caused by Grayscale’s BTC dump remain uncertain, leaving the question of how much further the BTC price may decline.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin Expected To Mirror Historical Trends: Glassnode Sets $120K Price Prediction For 2024

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency in the market, has encountered a significant downturn following the waning hype around exchange-traded funds (ETFs), resulting in a 9% decline over the past fourteen days. 

However, Glassnode co-founders remain optimistic, asserting that the recent price corrections align with historical patterns and could propel Bitcoin to new heights, nearly doubling its current all-time high (ATH) of $69,000.

Healthy Market Correction?

In their latest analysis, the co-founders of the blockchain analytics firm posted on X (formerly Twitter), highlighting Bitcoin’s movement to the 6.618 Fibonacci Extension after a Bull Flag Correction. 

They draw parallels between the current correction and similar market conditions observed in late 2017 and 2020. The question arises: Will history repeat itself in 2024, and will Bitcoin reach its 6.618 Fibonacci Extension during this bullish market, setting a target of approximately $120K?

Bitcoin

Examining the chart above, the analysis by the Glassnode co-founders reveals a comparable price correction following Bitcoin’s breakout above the $10,000 price level, which initiated the bull trend that propelled the cryptocurrency to a $15,000 increase before reaching its current ATH of $69,000.

Likewise, Bitcoin exhibited a similar bull flag pattern after surpassing the $29,000 price level, leading to a 22-month high of $48,900 on January 11. Notably, this surge occurred shortly after the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Considering these developments, the key to Bitcoin’s future trajectory lies in maintaining support around the $40,000 level and further consolidation above it. If these conditions are met in the coming months, Bitcoin has the potential to reach the 6.618 Fibonacci extension, pushing its price as high as $120,000.

New All-Time Highs Expected For Bitcoin

Like Glassnode co-founder’s recent price analysis, crypto analyst Crypto Con also relies on historical patterns to gauge the future price action of BTC. According to Crypto Con, the mid-top of this Bitcoin price cycle occurred slightly faster than previous cycles but slower than the third cycle. 

Notably, this mid-top represents the only instance where it occurred outside of an early top, as indicated by the purple and yellow dots on the chart provided by the analyst.

Bitcoin

Despite the 2019 mid-top occurring a year earlier than expected, the cycle top still manifested within the usual timeframe, plus or minus 21 days from November 28th, 2021. 

Crypto Con stresses that there is currently no evidence apart from complex theories to support the notion of an accelerated cycle. The analyst cautions against assuming that ETFs prevent potential Bitcoin price corrections. 

After November 28th, 2024, Crypto Con predicts the emergence of new all-time highs for the Bitcoin price of $90,000 or $130,000 and significant growth for the cryptocurrency market. 

Bitcoin

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $40,590, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours. If this level is breached, Bitcoin could drop towards the $37,650 level as it is the next major support for the cryptocurrency.

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Grayscale Transfers Almost 12,000 BTC To Coinbase, Bitcoin Price Reacts

In a significant development that could potentially impact the Bitcoin price, Arkham Intelligence data reveals that Grayscale, the manager and owner of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), has been sending a significant amount of Bitcoin to Coinbase since the launch of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on January 12.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Initiates Substantial BTC Outflow

According to the data, four days ago, Grayscale initiated the first batch of BTC outflows from their holdings to the US-based exchange in four separate batches, totaling 4,000 BTC, which amounted to approximately $183 million. However, the asset manager resumed outflows from the Trust to the exchange on Tuesday.

Bitcoin price

In a recent update, approximately three hours ago, the asset manager sent an additional 11,700 BTC to Coinbase, amounting to $491.4 million. This additional selling pressure could push the Bitcoin price to test lower support levels.

Furthermore, Bloomberg reports that investors have withdrawn over half a billion dollars from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust during the initial days of trading as an ETF. 

According to Bloomberg’s data, outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust reached approximately $579 million, while the other nine spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed inflows totaling nearly $819 million.

Investors Shift Capital To ‘Lower-Cost’ Spot Bitcoin ETFs

James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, noted that investors may be profit-taking following the ETF conversion. The flow data provides valuable insights into the ETF’s performance following SEC approval. 

Although over $2.3 billion of GBTC shares were traded on its first day, the outflows indicate that a portion of that volume was due to selling. Seyffart anticipates that a significant amount of capital will enter other Bitcoin exposures.

The outflows from Grayscale’s ETF were somewhat expected. Bloomberg Intelligence had previously projected that the fund would experience outflows of over $1 billion in the coming weeks. 

Some of this outflow can be attributed to investors shifting towards more cost-effective spot Bitcoin ETFs. With an expense ratio of 1.5%, GBTC is the most expensive US ETF directly investing in Bitcoin. In contrast, the VanEck Bitcoin Trust, the second-most expensive fund, charges 0.25%.

On the other hand, other spot Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed net inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT attracted nearly $500 million in the first two days of trading, while Fidelity’s FBTC received approximately $421 million. 

According to Bloomberg, these inflows suggest strong demand for Bitcoin exposure in physically backed ETFs, even beyond potential seed funding from the fund issuers.

Bitcoin Price Finds Support At $42,000

Currently, the Bitcoin price remains unaffected by the news of Grayscale’s transfers to Coinbase. The leading cryptocurrency is trading at $43,100, showing a slight increase of 0.8% over the past 24 hours.

However, since the commencement of ETF trading, it is important to note that the Bitcoin price has experienced a significant retracement, declining by 8%. This decline can be attributed to profit-taking and selling pressure, with Grayscale’s involvement being noteworthy.

In the event of a further drop in the Bitcoin price, a significant support level has been established at $42,000. If this level is breached, the next key level for Bitcoin bulls to watch is $41,350, followed by a potential dip below $40,000.

The market is eagerly observing whether Grayscale and its BTC selloff will continue and how this will impact the Bitcoin price leading up to the scheduled halving event in April, which many consider to be the main catalyst for the year.

Bitcoin price

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Cantor CEO Makes Gold And Bitcoin ETFs Comparison, Foresees True Rally With Halving

In a highly anticipated development, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) granted regulatory approval for 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs, sparking excitement within the crypto community. 

However, despite initial expectations of a significant price surge, the Bitcoin market has experienced an 8% price drop since the ETFs began trading.

Bitcoin ETFs To Unfold Impact Over Time? 

Drawing a comparison with the launch of the first Gold ETF, Cantor Fitzgerald Asset Management CEO, Howard Lutnick, noted that the immediate rush to buy the asset did not materialize.

Lutnick remarks that historical data from the launch of the Gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), reveals that substantial price appreciation took place over several years. 

When GLD was introduced in November 2004, the price of gold stood at around $700. By December 2023, it had surged to an all-time high of $2,145. The gold market capitalization, estimated at $1 trillion to $2 trillion pre-ETF approval, ballooned to $16 trillion within a few years.

Likewise, despite the initial hype surrounding the spot Bitcoin ETFs, experts suggest that the true impact of these ETFs will unfold over an extended period. 

As reported by NewsBTC, market analysts at CoinShares estimate that the United States possesses around $14.4 trillion in addressable assets. 

Assuming a conservative scenario where 10% of these assets invest in a spot Bitcoin ETF with an average allocation of 1%, it could potentially result in approximately $14.4 billion inflows within the first year.

These significant inflows have the potential to propel the Bitcoin price to new highs and initiate a notable price uptrend. However, as Cantor CEO Howard Lutnick predicted, the halving event, expected to occur in April, remains the primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s growth.

Dual Catalysts For Crypto Market Enthusiasm

As the Bitcoin halving event approaches, analysis of past halvings reveals a pattern of substantial rallies leading up to the event, followed by a brief correction and consolidation period before a major bull run and peak. The peak typically occurs approximately 18 months after each halving, showcasing a consistent trend.

The first halving occurred on November 28, 2012, reducing the block reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. At the time of the halving, the Bitcoin price was around $13. 

However, within a year, it reached a peak of $1,152. Despite a subsequent fall in price to nearly $200 in 2015, critics declared the bursting of a bubble and the demise of Bitcoin. Yet, this trend would repeat in subsequent halving cycles.

The second halving occurred on July 16, 2016, reducing the block reward to 12.5 BTC. At the time, Bitcoin was valued at $664. 

The following year saw a peak of $17,760. Similarly, the third halving occurred on May 11, 2020, lowering the block reward to 6.25 BTC. Bitcoin was priced at $9,734 during the halving and peaked at $69,000 the following year.

Based on the historical cycles, it is evident that the upcoming halving scheduled for April 2024 will be a significant catalyst for Bitcoin. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin ETFs will also play a crucial role. 

These ETFs are expected to positively impact the cryptocurrency’s price and bring new inflows and interest to the crypto market.

Bitcoin ETFs

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Bitcoin Price Suffers Post-Spot ETF Blues, Drops 7% To $43,200

The introduction of Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has triggered a significant sell-off, leading to a sharp decline in the Bitcoin price.

After gaining approval and commencing trading on Thursday, the ETFs have prompted a “sell the news” event, causing Bitcoin’s value to plummet from its initial trading price of $46,500 at the time of approval to a low of $43,200 within a matter of hours on Friday.

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has experienced a 7% drop. Its gains over the past 30 days have been limited to a mere 4%, erasing much of the progress made during that period. 

Additionally, as selling pressure continues to mount following the approval, there are indications that the Bitcoin price may face further downward pressure.

Bitcoin Price Under Pressure

CryptoQuant analyst J.A. Maartunn observed significant sell orders in Bitcoin’s two-week chart on Wednesday. Notably, three clusters of sell orders were positioned between $46,100 and $48,000, comprising stacks of 755, 1,031, and 794 BTC, respectively.

According to the CryptoQuant analyst, such patterns are typically associated with market tops, unless these orders are later withdrawn or executed.

This influx of sell orders may help explain the lackluster response to the ETF approvals until now, as it appears that selling pressure has been building up. However, the situation has intensified even further. 

According to Maartunn, additional sell orders were detected on Friday, indicating that the seller is not yet finished. Two substantial sell orders have been placed just above the current Bitcoin price: one for 894 BTC at $44,000 and another for 1,071 BTC at $45,100.

Bitcoin price

These developments suggest that market participants are taking advantage of the ETF news to offload their Bitcoin holdings, leading to increased selling pressure and a subsequent price decline. 

The market’s stabilization following this period of heightened selling pressure remains uncertain. The introduction of ETFs was believed to bring about heightened institutional interest and potentially drive up the Bitcoin price. 

However, it is important to note that the impact of these ETFs is expected to unfold over the long term, rather than being evident within days, weeks, or even months. It will likely take years to fully gauge the effects and consequences of ETF integration on the Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin’s Bullish Structure Remains Intact

Amidst the ongoing selling pressure, several support lines may potentially halt the downtrend and bring positive news for the Bitcoin price and BTC bulls.

Although Bitcoin has already lost its $44,000 support level, there is another crucial threshold at $42,700 that could prevent further decline. If this level holds, there is a chance for Bitcoin to regain the $43,000 mark and reverse the downward momentum.

Bitcoin price

If the $42,700 support is breached, additional support lines come into play. These include $42,300, $41,700, and $41,200, which act as the last barriers before a potential test of the $40,000 support level. The $40,000 mark holds significance as it represents the final support before a potential dip towards $38,000.

However, there is a positive aspect for Bitcoin bulls to consider. The current bullish structure of the cryptocurrency remains intact as long as the dip does not breach the $29,900 mark.

This level marked the beginning of the current bullish uptrend, and its preservation would ensure the maintenance of the overall positive market structure.

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