Posted on

Bitcoin To $5 Million? S2F Model Predicts When This Will Happen

Using historical and future Bitcoin halving events, the Bitcoin Stock to Flow (S2F) live data chart model has pointed toward a BTC surge to unprecedented highs during the 2028 to 2032 halvings. 

Bitcoin To Hit $5 Million After 2028 Halving

Crypto analyst Bit Harington recently shared insights in a post on X (formerly Twitter) about the potential surges in the price of Bitcoin during the next halving stages. Using data from the Bitcoin S2F chart, Harington predicted the price of Bitcoin would reach $500,000 by the fourth halving, which is taking place in April. 

His predictions were based on the distinctive trend observed in BTC’s price, where the first to third halving phases exhibited a consistent 10x price increase for each successive halving. 

Responding to the post, the creator of the S2F model, Plan B, made a bold prediction, suggesting that the average price of Bitcoin during the 2028 and 2032 halving events could potentially reach an impressive $5 million. 

The cryptocurrency has consistently experienced bullish rallies following each halving event, from the first Bitcoin halving in November 2012 to the third in May 2020. Due to this, many investors and crypto analysts foresee a similar surge in BTC’s price during 2024 halving. 

These expectations could be attributed to the events that typically occur during a Bitcoin halving event. In each halving phase, BTC mining rewards are cut in half, and the supply of the token is reduced, thereby inducing scarcity and increasing the token’s value. 

While these price projections about Bitcoin are made to keep investors alert, it’s important to note that they remain speculations, and models like S2F can be subject to wide margins of error. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com (BTC)

Analyst Reveals Key Factors To Consider In 2024 Halving

Another crypto analyst, Ali Martinez, has disclosed four crucial factors to keep in mind as the 2024 April Bitcoin halving approaches. Martinez highlighted the significance of the post-halving price corrections in the 2016 and 2020 Bitcoin halving, emphasizing that BTC declined by 30% to 70% within a month after the halving phases. 

He also mentioned BTC’s post-halving rallies, where the cryptocurrency experienced significant surges to 700%, 2,850%, and 11,000%, respectively, during the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halving events. The crypto analyst delved into bull market durations after each halving, which lasted about a year or more.

He concluded his analysis by predicting that the next Bitcoin market top would occur around April or October 2025. At the time of writing, the price of BTC was $42,110, according to CoinMarketCap. 

Posted on

Bitcoin Set For ‘Dullest Rally’ With A Twist, Whale Forecasts

Bitcoin has been unable to retain its bullish momentum and seems likely to extend its current downside trend. However, the long run remains positive, and the next months could see BTC reach its all-time high, but in a different fashion than in previous rallies, according to a large investor.

As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $42,000 with a 1% loss in the last 24 hours. Over the previous week, the cryptocurrency still records a 5% profit.

bitcoin btc btcusdt

Bitcoin Whales Makes Bullish Forecast

According to a pseudonym Bitcoin Whale that goes by “Joe007” on social media X, the cryptocurrency is poised for a bull run. The institutions trading the US spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) will drive this bullish momentum.

In that sense, these institutions are likely to suck the volatility out of Bitcoin by pushing to trade similar to traditional assets. Thus, Joe007 claims that this cycle’s rally will lack the excitement of 2017 and 2021 when BTC hit $20,000 and $69,000, respectively, creating euphoria amongst investors.

The Bitcoin whale stated:

I think we’re about to witness the most boring rally in Bitcoin history. No retail-driven parabolic swings that excite degens/noobs and produce headlines. Rather a slow relentless drive higher by professional accumulators taking out layer after layer of paper handed holders.

The whale dismissed the possibility when asked if traditional institutions could fail in “taming” BTC due to the “systemic crises” in the space. In addition, Joe007 dismissed the possibility of the cryptocurrency not running higher in the long run.

The only thing that could stand between Bitcoin and a rally is a “low probability” scenario where the traditional finance sector experiences a similar crash to 2008. The BTC whale added:

(…) unless there is a sudden complete tradfi meltdown (2008-style or worse). Then I can see Bitcoin being dragged into a general panic-crash, at least initially. Certainly possible but hard to assign realistic probability.

BTC Price In The Short Term

On low timeframes, an analyst pointed at the Daily On Balance Volume (OBV), which suggests further downside for BTC. The chart below shows that this metric broke out of a trending channel during Bitcoin’s recent crash.

bitcoin price btc btcusdt

The OBV was rejected out of a critical level and seems poised to trend to the upside along with the price of BTC. The analyst stated:

Daily OBV still looks like it wants more downside. Looks like this might have been a lower high that we just put in.

Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Posted on

Bitcoin Halving Prep: Analyst Outlines Key Points Ahead Of Event

Anticipations for the upcoming Bitcoin halving event are high in the cryptocurrency community, with hopes of BTC witnessing a massive rally post-event. Nonetheless, several key factors should be considered prior to the halving.

Important Considerations Ahead Of The Impending Bitcoin Halving

Ali Martinez, a famous cryptocurrency analyst has revealed the major key points investors need to watch out for ahead of Bitcoin halving. The analyst shared his opinions on the subject through the social media platform X (formerly Twitter).

In the X post, Martinez pointed out just four important factors to consider as the event drew near. The upcoming halving, expected to take place by April this year, will be the fourth time it has been done.

One of the first and key areas highlighted by Martinez to spot is the post-Bitcoin halving corrections. Martinez stated that within a month following the 2020 and 2026 halvings, BTC saw substantial corrections, which preceded this price surge.

Bitcoin

He explained that within a month after the 2016 event, the price of Bitcoin fell by 30%. He also said a similar scenario played out in the 2020 halving, which saw price plummet about 7%.

The Bitcoin halving has always been viewed as a bullish development that leads to a significant rise in the price of BTC. This is primarily due to the fact that as demand increases, the quantity of fresh BTC coming into the market declines.

For the second key point to look out for, Martinez has underscored massive post-halving rallies. According to him, there is typically a sharp increase in the price of Bitcoin after the post-halving drop.

In particular, the expert asserted that after the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the price of Bitcoin surged by 11,000%, 2,850%, and 700%, respectively. Due to this, many experts anticipate that BTC’s price will reach a new all-time high after the event is concluded.

Significant Change In The Market

Martinez’s third crucial aspect to consider is the bull market durations. As is widely known, every previous halving event often ushers in a bull market.

He then shared a calculative time of how long the market rallied during all the previous halving. Martinez stated that the 2012, 2016, and 2020 bull market lasted for 365 days, 518 days, and 549 days, respectively. 

Meanwhile, the last part pointed out by the expert is the next market top. He believes that Bitcoin will get to a new peak by April or October 2025. Martinez anticipates this to take place if only the upcoming event follows historical patterns. So, he has urged the crypto community to be vigilant and observe these patterns.

As of now, BTC is trading a little above $42,000, showing a decrease of almost 2% in the past 24 hours. Its trading volume has increased by 14% today, while its market cap is down by 1.90%.

Bitcoin

Posted on

Bitcoin Set For Weekend Rally Amid New Banking Crisis: Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, has offered an in-depth analysis of the current financial landscape and its potential impact on Bitcoin, especially in light of the recent challenges faced by New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) and the broader banking sector.

Hayes’s analysis draws on the complex interplay between macroeconomic policies, banking sector health, and the cryptocurrency market. His comments are particularly insightful given the recent developments with NYCB. The bank’s stock plummeted by 46% due to an unexpected loss and a substantial dividend cut, which was primarily attributed to a tenfold increase in loan loss reserves, far exceeding estimates.

This incident raised red flags about the stability and exposure of US regional banks, particularly in the real estate sector, which is known to be cyclically sensitive and vulnerable to economic downturns. The stock market reacted negatively to these developments, with regional US bank stocks also declining due to NYCB’s performance.

Weekend Rally Ahead For Bitcoin?

Hayes explicitly stated, “Jaypow [Jerome Powell] and Bad Burl Yellen [Janet Yellen] will be printing money very soon. NYCB annc a ‘surprise’ loss driven by loan loss reserves rising 10x vs. estimates. Guess the banks ain’t fixed.” This comment underscores the persisting fragility of the banking sector, still reeling from the shocks of the 2023 banking crisis. He added, “10-yr and 2-yr yields plunged, signaling the market expects some sort of renewed bankster bailout to fix the rot.”

Furthermore, Hayes highlighted the impending conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which was introduced in response to the 2023 banking crisis. The BTFP was a critical instrument in providing liquidity to banks, allowing them to use a wider range of collateral for borrowing.

Hayes anticipates market turbulence leading to the Fed possibly reinstating the BTFP or introducing similar measures. In a recent statement, he noted, “If my forecast is correct, the market will bankrupt a few banks within that period, forcing the Fed into cutting rates and announcing the resumption of the BTFP.” This scenario, he argues, would create a liquidity injection that could buoy cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin​​.

In his latest post on X, Hayes drew parallels to the cryptocurrency’s performance during the March 2023 banking crisis. He predicts a similar trajectory, suggesting a brief dip followed by a significant rally:

Expect BTC to swoon a bit, but if NYCB and a few others dump into the weekend, expect a new bailout right quick. Then BTC off to the races just like March ’23 price action. […] I think it might be time to get back on the train fam. Maybe after a few US banks bite the dust this weekend.

During the March crisis, Bitcoin’s value jumped over 40%, a reaction attributed to its perceived role as a digital gold or a safe-haven asset amid financial instability​​. On a longer time horizon and with the Great Financial Crisis from 2008 in mind, he further argued, “What did the Fed and Treasury do last time US property prices plunged and bankrupted banks globally? Money Printer Go Brrrr. BTC = $1 million. Yachtzee.”

At press time, BTC traded at $42,232.

Bitcoin price

Posted on

Bitcoin Price Decline To Resume? These Could Be The Factors To Watch

Bitcoin price struggled to clear the $43,750 resistance. BTC is now declining and there could be more losses if there is a move below the $41,800 level.

  • Bitcoin price is slowly moving lower from the $43,750 resistance zone.
  • The price is trading below $42,800 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
  • There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support near $42,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could continue to decline if there is a close below the $41,800 level.

Bitcoin Price Starts Another Decline

Bitcoin price attempted more gains above the $42,500 resistance zone. BTC cleared the $43,500 resistance zone, but the bears were active near the $43,800 zone.

The bulls made more than two attempts to clear $43,800 but failed. A high was formed near $43,742 and the price started a fresh decline. There was a move below the $43,000 level. Besides, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support near $42,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin is now trading below $42,800 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. A low was formed near $41,888 and the price is now consolidating losses. Immediate resistance is near the $42,350 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $43,742 swing high to the $41,888 low.

The next key resistance could be $42,800 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $43,742 swing high to the $41,888 low, above which the price could start a decent increase. The next stop for the bulls may perhaps be $43,200.

Bitcoin Price

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

A clear move above the $43,200 resistance could send the price toward the $43,800 resistance. The next resistance is now forming near the $44,200 level. A close above the $45,000 level could push the price further higher. The next major resistance sits at $46,500.

More Losses In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $42,800 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $41,800 level.

The first major support is $41,200. The main support could be $40,950. If there is a close below $40,950, the price could gain bearish momentum. In the stated case, the price could dive toward the $40,000 support.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $41,800, followed by $41,200.

Major Resistance Levels – $42,350, $42,800, and $43,800.

Posted on

Bitfinex Securities Starts Operations In El Salvador – Here Are The Details

Over the last few years, El Salvador has been making considerable efforts to become Latin America’s crypto hub. Today, two and a half years after adopting Bitcoin as a legal currency in the country, Bitfinex Securities announced the launch of Bitfinex Securities El Salvador S.A., the first platform to offer tokenized securities.

Launching The First Licensed Digital Asset Platform In El Salvador

On January 31, 2024, Bitfinex Securities officially became the first registered and licensed digital assets service provider to launch in El Salvador, and it’s now accepting customer applications. 

Last year, El Salvador approved the Digital Asset Securities Law, allowing Bitfinex Securities to apply for and receive approval for the first digital assets license under this regulatory framework.

This new law, as Juan Carlos Reyes, President of the National Commission of Digital Assets (NCDA), explained:

(…) carved out digital assets regulation from the traditional financial regulator and created the national commission of digital assets, that oversees the supervision and regulation of the ecosystem.

Additionally, the NCDA Chair recalled the positive experience with the firm and praised it for its ‘regulatory high standards’ and ‘world-class’ knowledge of compliance.

In the announcement, Bitfinex Securities highlighted the “substantial leap for financial innovation in Latin America” that the development of the tokenized securities industry in El Salvador suggests. The firm also announced it has established a pipeline of potential issuances that it expects to come to the market throughout the year.

Bitcoin ETF Approval Provides An Optimistic Outlook

“We are delighted to be able to announce the launch of Bitfinex Securities in El Salvador,” said Paolo Ardoino, Chief Technology Officer of Bitfinex Securities. He expressed his excitement to take part in the “forefront of this financial revolution,” stating:

This is not only an important market for Bitfinex given its adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender and the fostering of a Bitcoin-based economy, but it also gives El Salvador the opportunity to attract global investment flows, as issuers put out competitively priced securities offerings.

The launch of the Bitfinex Securities El Salvador platform follows the approval of the spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 10. The successful launch of Bitcoin-based ETFs in the US makes the firm expect a significant demand for exposure to other regulated digital asset services.

Jesse Knutson, Bitfinex Securities Head of Operation, highlighted in his statement the progress that El Salvador has made since 2021:

Following up on El Salvador’s groundbreaking policy work and legislative frameworks over the past two and a half years, the official launch of Bitfinex Securities El Salvador is another important step in the evolution of capital markets and an important global proof of concept.

Knutson also expressed optimism over the “recent surge of institutional investor interest in Bitcoin-focused financial products.”

Bitcoin, BTC, BTCUSDT

Posted on

Billionaire Tim Draper’s Forecast: Bitcoin To Hit $250,000 By 2025

Renowned billionaire investor Tim Draper has again captured the crypto community’s attention with his bullish stance on Bitcoin. Despite missing his previous forecast 2018, where he predicted Bitcoin would hit $250,000 by 2022, Draper remains steadfast in his belief in Bitcoin’s potential.

Bitcoin To Hit $250,000 By 2025

In a recent Bloomberg interview, Draper first humorously acknowledged his missed prediction, joking: “Well, I don’t know why anybody is still listening to me if I missed that one.” Yet, this missed forecast hasn’t dampened his optimism; Draper is doubling on his prediction, projecting that Bitcoin will reach the quarter-million mark by 2025.

Draper cites his misjudgment of the US government’s conservative stance on cryptocurrency regulation as the reason behind his previous prediction not materializing. However, he emphasizes the increasing adoption of Bitcoin in countries with unstable currencies.

Draper notes the growing preference for conducting business in Bitcoin over traditional currencies like the US dollar, especially in regions where the dollar is often associated with criminal activities. His vision for Bitcoin extends beyond a mere store of value; he anticipates a future where Bitcoin becomes a universally accepted currency, fundamentally transforming financial transactions.

Draper noted:

I actually think there will be a moment in time when I can buy my food, clothing, and shelter all in Bitcoin, and people won’t want dollars anymore.

It is worth noting that Tim Draper further foresees a “transformative shift” in the worldwide financial landscape, where Bitcoin’s limited supply and resistance to political interference render it a more dependable and stable currency choice.

Draper sees a parallel between Bitcoin’s growth trajectory and Microsoft’s initial stages, forecasting Bitcoin’s rise as a central platform for diverse financial innovations, notably in the realms of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), which he refers to as “organelles.”

Industry Titans BTC Forecast Align

Draper’s bold predictions echo those of other industry figures, like the founder of the hedge fund Skybridge, Anthony Scaramucci, who projects that Bitcoin could reach as high as $400,000, nearing half of gold’s market capitalization. This prediction suggests a potential tenfold increase, dramatically shifting the landscape of digital assets.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s influence is already being felt in traditional finance. Recent data from JP Morgan shows a significant inflow into Bitcoin funds. In contrast, gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experience a concurrent outflow, indicating a shift in investor preference from traditional to digital assets.

Amid these developments, Bitcoin’s market performance continues to exhibit resilience and growth. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has seen a 6.1% increase, trading at around $43,056 at the time of writing.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView.com

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

Posted on

Why “Overbought” Bitcoin Could Trigger A 107% Rally

Bitcoin price had previously been showing extreme strength leading up until the debut of the first spot ETFs. That strength has since subsided, leading to a 20% correction in BTCUSD.

A popular technical indicator that measures momentum, however, could point to powerful continuation to the upside, but only if a certain level is breached. Keep reading to learn more about the Relative Strength Index and how the top cryptocurrency behaves once the market reaches an “overbought” level.

Bitcoin Approaches “Overbought” And Why This Isn’t A Bad Thing

The Relative Strength Index is a momentum-measuring tool that signals when a market is “overbought” or “oversold”. When a financial asset reaches such conditions, it often means the trend is about to change.

In Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the weekly RSI is often a signal that the asset is moving into its most powerful phase. For example, Bitcoin made it above a reading of 70 in October 2023, and only weeks later saw an over 60% rally to local 2024 highs.

Now 1W BTCUSD charts are showing an RSI reading of just below 70, pointing to a possible close back above the overbought level. If bulls can keep the top cryptocurrency by market cap above $43,650, the weekly RSI should close above the threshold.

bitcoin rsi

BTCUSD Historical 1W Relative Strength Data

Historical data could possibly shed some light on what might happen if the weekly Relative Strength Index gets the close above 70 as anticipated.

Over the last ten years, Bitcoin saw a 1W RSI close above 70 a total of 13 times. This happened 8 times in 2016 and 2017, twice in 2019, and once each in 2020 and 2021. One additional instance occurred in 2023.

Of the 13 times, the average gain after the RSI closed above 70 to the peak of the movement was 107%. The largest rally was in 2020, bringing over 400% returns. The smallest rally was in 2016 and saw only a 20% gain.

After removing the largest and smallest outliers, the average drops down to around 61%. This could mean that Bitcoin could produce on average a move between 61 and 107%.

A 61% gain takes BTCUSD back to just under $68,000 and shy of a new all-time high, while a 107% move sets a new record closer to $90,000 per coin. The cryptocurrency is also potentially working on a bull flag pattern, with a target of around $77,000.

Bitcoin bull flag rsi

Posted on

Bitcoin Miner Selloff Poses “Negligible Impact”, Quant Argues

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin miners have been selling recently, but this quant has argued that this selloff shouldn’t have much impact on the market.

Bitcoin Miner Reserve Has Registered A Decline Recently

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst discussed the latest selling pressure that the miners have been putting on the market. The indicator of interest here is the “miner reserve,” which keeps track of the total amount of Bitcoin that the miners combined hold in their wallets right now.

This metric can naturally provide information about the collective behavior of these chain validators. Generally, the miners withdraw their coins from their reserve when they want to sell, so a decline in the indicator can potentially have bearish consequences for the asset.

A rise in the metric, on the other hand, may be bullish for the cryptocurrency’s price as it suggests the miners as a whole are in accumulation mode at the moment.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin miner reserve over the past year:

Bitcoin Miner Reserve

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin miner reserve has been on its way down since October, implying that this cohort has withdrawn a net amount of BTC from their wallets during this period.

This latest selloff from the miners has recently been a topic in the community, with many speculating about the possible bearish impact arising from it. The quant has a different opinion on the matter, however.

“The sell-off of Bitcoin reserves by miners, as discussed on X and various portals, is unfounded,” explains the analyst. To back this claim, the quant has pointed out the exact numbers involved here.

Before this selling started, the miner reserve had a value of around 1,84,997 BTC. Following the decline that the indicator has witnessed since then, the miners now hold about 1,833,222 BTC.

This represents a decrease of 12,755 BTC, which, although substantial on its own, doesn’t seem too large in the grand scheme of things, especially considering the size of the miner reserve itself. “The minimal amount of bitcoin sold has negligible impact on the market,” notes the analyst.

Bitcoin Miner Inflows & Outflows

The above chart shows the data for the Bitcoin inflows and outflows being made by the miners. There have indeed been outflows taking place recently, which is why there has been talk of a selloff.

At the same time, the inflow transaction volume has also been at significant levels, making up for these outflows. This is the reason for the relatively small net decrease in the total miner reserve.

BTC Price

Bitcoin had recovered beyond the $43,000 mark earlier, but the asset has seen a setback during the past day as it has slipped back towards $42,500.

Bitcoin Price Chart