“Huge DJs” no longer appear at crypto events, instead, attendees are seeing more “well thought out, intelligent questions” being asked.
Chainlink (LINK) Price Falls Below $7, Are The Bears Back In Control?
The bearish trend a few days ago brought Chainlink (LINK) down to $6.735 on April 26. The bulls tried to recover and drove the price of LINK to a solid 24-hour high of $7.30, but it later fell to a 7-day low of $6.773.
Due to the current FUD and increased regulatory pressure in the United States, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price dropped below $29,000. But if the bulls build strong momentum, BTC may test $30k and climb higher, dragging the rest of the altcoin market, including LINK, with it.
Will Bearish Trend Continue?
As of the time of writing, the LINK market is still moving down, falling by 2.49% to $7.06. According to CoinMarketCap info, LINK’s market cap decreased by 3.11%, while its 24-hour trading volume rose by 30.83% during the downtrend.
Related Reading: Can Meme Coin PEPE Get Into The Top 100? Read This Before Buying
The increasing trading volume suggests a possible change in investors’ sentiment for LINK. It indicates that network activities are increasing despite the downturn, which might push the LINK price to a rally.
However, if more traders attempt to sell their holdings, a market sell-off may occur, potentially adding to downward pressure on the price.
Notably, due to the ongoing Spring 2023 hackathon, long-term holders stopped selling. This recent event might draw new network players and start a long-lasting bull movement.
LINK Technical Analysis
LINK has seen a few rejections at the supply zone of $7.50 in the past few days, which is also the primary resistance zone. On April 30, the LINK price hit the resistance zone and went down, which attracted the bears.
Chainlink trades between support and resistance levels of $6.773 and $7.500. The first significant resistance level for LINK is $7.500. The following resistance zone is $8.831 if the price moves above this current zone. But if the bears build strong momentum, the next support will be $5.492.
The market is down due to a change in market structure caused by the 50-day SMA change in direction. If the bullish momentum doesn’t pick up, the trend may change to a potential bearish market.
The 50-day SMA established a Death Cross by crossing below the 200-day SMA, indicating a potentially bearish signal and suggesting a selling opportunity.
At the time of analysis, the RSI is 40.86 below the neutral zone. Therefore, this shows that LINK is not in the overbought zone but seems to be heading toward the oversold zone.
The bears are aggressively pushing the price of LINK to the oversold zone while the bulls are still trying to hold the market, even though the momentum is weak. The MACD is currently trading below the signal line, showing bearish sentiment in the market.
Featured image from Pixabay and chart from Tradingview
Bye-Bye Bitcoin Bear
No investor or financial advisor has a crystal ball that can predict the movement of an asset, including bitcoin, with total certainty. But past bitcoin halvings can provide clues on what we could potentially expect.
Lesser-Known Bitcoin Indicator Signals Onset of Major Bull Run
You might not have heard of the reserve risk multiple, but right now, it’s signaling a continued bitcoin price rally in months ahead.
25% of NFT owners have a collection of 51 or more – CoinGecko Report
Despite the crypto bear market in 2022, there wasn’t a significant decline in NFT adoption, according to the report.
Bitcoin price surge: Breakthrough or bull trap? Pundits weigh in
Bitcoin nearly broke its record for the longest streak of daily green price candles this month, but many believe its recent surge could be short-lived.
Customer support staff swamped during market swings — exchange execs
Binance Australia’s CEO says it is imperative that customer support is ready for a large influx of customer inquiries at any moment.
Regulatory clarity will drive the next bull run — hedge fund co-founder
As long as the regulation gives an institutional investor a very clear path to crypto, they’ll jump into the space, hedge fund co-founder CK Cheng told Cointelegraph.
Cardano On White House Crosshair Can Push ADA Up This Route
The recent White House announcement has placed the spotlight on Cardano as the leading Proof-of-Stake blockchain that’s currently on the market. This recent news follows the announcement of the Vasil upgrade which aims to improve usability and scalability.
A simple Twitter search of ADA will result with tweets of happy and confident traders and investors.
“Here is the White House energy report showcasing #Cardano as the largest proof of stake blockchain in the world. Probably something,” said Dan Gombardello in a recent tweet.
Chart: TradingView.com
At the day of the announcement, ADA’s price went up 7.43 percent with a high of $0.5243 before stabilizing at the range $0.5215 to $0.4992.
Using the regression trend tool, we can clearly see an uptrend forming even several days before the White House announcement. This uptrend formed clearly after the recent crash in the early half of August.
Chart: TradingView.com
Cardano Gets Some Lift From White House Announcement
During this crash, the coin experienced a 25.18 percent drop in price. It continued stabilizing at the $0.4354 support line. Trade volumes have also risen since the announcement at 3.63 million.
This solid but slow uptrend coupled by the announcement further solidified confidence in the coin.
Trade indicators also point to buy signals as the price further stabilizes at the 50% percent Fib level which sits at the $0.4992 range. The bulls have also tested the 38.20 Fib level which sat at $0.5219 range.
If the uptrend continues, investing in ADA will be very beneficial to traders and investors. As of this writing, the CCI 80.20 level says a lot about the investors and traders. This means that confidence in the coin might not be very high, but it is stable.
Stoch RSI also points to a rising buy signal. Just like the CCI indicator, it means investor sentiment is slowly rising.
ADA Poised For A Bullish Run
With the Vasil upgrade around the corner and the White House placing Cardano as the top PoS blockchain, it might place ADA on a slow, bullish run.
But if the price falls because of a variety of reasons, the crucial support at the 78.60 Fib level should not be broken.
This line has been the support range that backed the slow uptrend in the past few weeks. If this is broken, this can reverse ADA’s upward price movement.
The next few days will determine if the gathering storm of the bulls will further push the price up.
ADA total market cap at $17.3 billion on the daily chart | Source: TradingView.com
Featured image from E&E News, Chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin Bulls Aim Past $20,000 Level – How Hard Can They Charge Forward?
Bitcoin bulls have their hands full in the next days to carry out a strong advance to lift BTC out of the pit.
Throughout today’s trading session, the market’s performance has been bullish. CoinGecko reports that bulls are driving prices higher for nearly 80 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies. The site has only flagged six coins as the biggest losers so far.
CoinGecko has identified Bitcoin as one of the top advancing currencies. With a 24-hour market volume of $34.7 billion the currency has seen a massive increase in value in the last few hours.
This increase in price is consistent with the bullish trend seen in the market for other cryptocurrencies Friday, which includes Ethereum.
But looking at the big picture, Bitcoin is still far below its August high of $25,000, when it first reached its current value, but in fairness, it already has its sights past the $20K barrier.
As shown in the graph, Bitcoin attempted to consolidate its price range over the course of 45 days.
Chart: TradingView.com
Bitcoin Bulls Resisting Downward Pressure
Bitcoin attempted to reduce volatility between August 19 and August 26. Bitcoin’s price fluctuated between $21,897 and $20,790.
Despite the bulls’ best efforts to stabilize the price of the coveted token on August 26, its value continued to decline.
Investors and traders were frightened by these previous price movements, as their indicators transmitted strong bearish and sell signals. But recently, bulls sped up and gave Bitcoin the push it needs to attempt a big run.
Chart: TradingView.com
Using the Fib retracement tool, the $19,141 support line can be identified at the 78.60 Fib level. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin bulls have broken through the 61.80, 50, 38.20, and 23.60 Fibonacci levels.
In addition, real-time data indicates that bulls are attempting to consolidate their gains. As they attempt to settle above the next likely support line at $20,321, they are also testing the strength of the next resistance range at $20,821.
Gunning Past The $20K Mark
Additionally, we can identify two levels that will be significant in the coming days. Prior to Bitcoin’s entry onto the scene with bullish activity, two support ranges sustained this movement.
The highlighted regions are the Fibonacci levels 100 and 71.80. The fate of the current market reversal will be decided at these two upcoming junctures. If the bears push the price below these levels and break through, a Bitcoin recovery may not occur at this time.
If the bulls persist and overcome the $20,828.14 resistance, the current price reversal will be the relief rally that investors and traders have been anticipating for months.
BTC total market cap at $399 billion on the daily chart | Source: TradingView.com
Featured image from TechSpot, chart from TradingView.com
Ethereum Guns For $1,900 As ETH Regains 10% From Latest Drop
The Ethereum market activity remains bullish, and ETH bulls have broken loose which is good news for investors, who are optimistic about the potential effects of one of the biggest events in the crypto world – the Merge – because it is so close at hand.
Recent numbers indicate that the price of ETH has settled into a range between $1,614 and $1,679. When compared to the previous analysis, which suggested that the crypto traded between $1,595 and $1,655, this is a significant increase.
Breaking the aforementioned level on the hourly chart would signal strong bullish momentum, potentially taking prices to $1,800. Market watchers predicted that bulls in the Ethereum market would try to reclaim the $1,950 high reached on August 17.
Chart: TradingView.com
Ethereum (ETH) Finds Stability At $1,700
As of this writing, $1,670 is acting as a strong barrier, and $1,612 is responding as a solid entrenchment. In any case, the price seems to have found stability around $1,700.
The Relative Strength Index for ETH is also very healthy right now. Positioned roughly in the middle of the gauge. To put it another way, the coin is neither being overbought nor oversold right now. In light of this, it’s possible that investors are feeling upbeat.
This price movement is currently positive. Even though a sudden decline occurred on September 7, the bulls were able to thwart the bears’ attempt to drive the price lower.
Since the aforementioned decline, the price of ETH has skyrocketed, surpassing the previous ceiling of $1,611.
Similarly, Ethereum’s CCI numbers are skyrocketing. As of this writing, the CCI for ETH is 349. A very strong buy signal for both traders and investors.
Bulls Have $1,900 On Their Crosshair
In addition, the previous analysis placed the bulls’ most likely objective in the $1,900 range. With the availability of real-time data, ETH’s upward momentum just gained additional strength as it broke through the $1,675 ceiling.
If this optimistic momentum keeps going, the June and July sell-offs will become a footnote in ETH’s history books.
The bulls may have succeeded in pushing the price higher and maintaining its momentum. However, as any market has demonstrated, market performance is extremely speculative. This recent performance could be a precursor to an even greater decline.
As market bulls continue their ascent, this may be the only thing that can sustain investors and traders over the long term.
ETH total market cap at $208 billion on the daily chart | Source: TradingView.comFeatured image from Coinpedia, chart from TradingView.com
By The Numbers: The Worst Bitcoin Bear Markets Ever
Bitcoin is now officially in another bear market after the crash that rocked the market last week. After falling more than 70% from its all-time high, investors across the space had started to retreat from the digital asset due to this new price trend. However, trends like these are not new for bitcoin. Although the present market may seem worse than previous ones due to it still ongoing, there have been some brutal bear markets in the past.
A Blast From The Past
It can often be helpful to take a look at the previous market cycles for bitcoin to see that this is nothing out of the ordinary. Yes, the bull and bear trends of this market have deviated from what has been recorded in history but it still remains very similar to what has been recorded in the past.
For bitcoin, the alternation between bear and bull markets has always been part of the experience. It has been through several of these boom-bust cycles in its 13 years in existence and it is not expected to change anytime soon.
Related Reading | Over $250 Million In Liquidations As Bitcoin Recovers Above $20,000
Bitcoin has so far lost about 73% from its most recent cycle peak but it is not the first time that something like this is happening. Looking back to the November 2013 market shows that bitcoin had actually continued to decline until it finally ended its 407-day losing streak with a bottom at 85% of its all-time high value. This had marked the end of that stretched-out bull market.
For those in the market, the 2017 bull-bear cycle is fresher in their minds compared to 2013. However, like in 2013, the drawdown was just as brutal, although lasting a shorter time. What had lasted for approximately a year had ended with poor performance of an 84% bottom.
BTC bear markets are always brutal | Source: Arcane Research
Since the digital asset continues to maintain this trend closely, it is expected that the drawdown will continue. Going by the previous two examples, one can easily draw a conclusion that a historical movement will see bitcoin bottom out in the mid -80s. Thus, the bottom is most likely not in and the market is likely to see BTC at $11,000 before the expected market bottom in late 2022.
Will Bitcoin Follow?
While looking at previous movements can help point a direction where the price of bitcoin might end up, there are always new information and events that can heavily impact it. For one, the macroeconomic atmosphere has been a big player in the movement of the digital asset in recent terms. As fears around inflation, fed rate hikes, and less liquidity circle the market, bitcoin had been directly impacted by this.
BTC enters bear market | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
This has led to a more intertwined market when it comes to bitcoin and the broader financial markets. As the cryptocurrency space grows larger, it is experiencing greater implications from the Fed decisions, stock market performance, U.S. elections, and crypto regulations that have been ramping up.
Related Reading | Cardano Vasil Hard Fork Launch Date Set, Time To Buy The News?
Nevertheless, the long-term play for bitcoin remains the best bet. As emotions run high, bitcoin veterans take to accumulating and hibernating while waiting for winter to pass. If history is anything to point to, by the next bull market, the price of bitcoin could reach as high as $200,000.
Featured image from Forbes, charts from Arcane Research and TradingView.com
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Controlling The Chaos: FTX Exchange Bails Out BlockFi With $250M
Is FTX saving the crypto industry or taking control of it? The derivatives-focused cryptocurrency exchange has been on the sidelines, watching everything around them collapse, and finally decided to take action. That or, as the rumor says, FTX created this whole situation in their labs and is now buying assets on the cheap. There’s only circumstantial evidence of that, though. The bailout, on the other hand, is completely real.
The proceeds of the credit facility are intended to be contractually subordinate to all client balances across all account types (BIA, BPY & loan collateral) and will be used as needed.
— Zac Prince (@BlockFiZac) June 21, 2022
Earlier, BlockFi CEO Zac Prince tweeted, “today BlockFi signed a term sheet with FTX to secure a $250M revolving credit facility providing us with access to capital that further bolsters our balance sheet and platform strength.” For his part, FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried replied “today we’re injecting $250m into BlockFi and partnering with them so they can navigate the market from a position of strength.”
Sources tell me that it is common knowledge within the #Crypto industry right now that Alameda (FTX) & SBF are 100% trying to push the #Bitcoin price down right now to liquidate a number of market participants including, but not limited to #Celsius.
pic.twitter.com/u4o8s60m2S
— N (@NickNew41532832) June 21, 2022
Over the last few weeks, the crypto market has been trending down. The contagion effect of the Terra/ Luna extinction event rocked every company out there, most of all those who offered yield on cryptocurrency deposits like BlockFi and Celsius and hedge funds like Three Arrows Capital. These companies’ problems and possible liquidation of assets, in turn, sent the crypto market into even more turmoil.
Related Reading | Crypto Exchange FTX US Sees Growth: Trading Volume Surged 512% In Q3
What Is FTX ‘s Endgame?
We wouldn’t know, but the exchange put itself in a position of power with all of these movements. According to Bankman-Fried, BlockFi “successfully removed at-risk counterparties preemptively,” and the company acted decisively by “removing troublesome counterparties before they become a problem, and adding cash before it was necessary.” And yes, by “troublesome counterparties” he means Celsius and 3AC.
3) Sometimes leadership means acting decisively and that’s what BlockFi did: removing troublesome counterparties _before_ they become a problem, and adding cash _before_ it was necessary.
— SBF (@SBF_FTX) June 21, 2022
For his part, Zac Prince frames it as a victory all around. “Throughout the market volatility of the last several weeks, I’m incredibly proud of how our team, platform and risk management protocols have performed. Today’s landmark announcement reinforces BlockFi’s commitment to serving its clients and ensuring their funds are safeguarded”. However, are $250M enough for a company this size? Let’s hope it is, for the sake of its clients.
In any case, both companies seem excited to collaborate. Prince said, “this agreement also unlocks future collaboration and innovation between BlockFi & FTX as we work to accelerate prosperity worldwide through crypto financial services.” On the same subject, Bankman-Fried claims FTX is “excited to partner with BlockFi to offer industry leading products.”
So, everything’s peachy on the crypto front at the moment, right? However, what happens if BlockFi keeps losing money? Does FTX get a chance to buy the whole company for peanuts?
SOL price chart on FTX | Source: SOL/USD on TradingView.com
BlockFi ‘s Previous Problems
In an article about the subject at hand, Zerohedge reminds us of a recent episode in BlockFi’s history:
“As a reminder, BlockFi was fined $100 million in February this year for its high-yield interest accounts, which were deemed as security products by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.”
And, who could forget when they gave out BTC instead of stablecoins to some lucky users?
“One Reddit-user shared a screengrab of their bonus payment showing that they received 701.4 Bitcoin, which equates to more than $24 million US dollars at the time of writing. They said they believe they were owed around $700 USD and that the Bitcoin transaction had been reversed.”
Related Reading | BlockFi Co-Founder Sees Huge Growth And FOMO For Crypto In 2022
To that, Zac Prince responded, “Our team is battle tested and has weathered many storms over the years, which only makes us stronger and more resilient as we navigate today’s market environment.” That’s a way of putting it. However, what could he say about the rumor that the company lost more than $285M during the bull market?
@BlockFi income statement is real bad
It's a mess of negative numbers, let's dig into it togetherhttps://t.co/Kr9lhiH8AS
— otteroooo (@otteroooo) June 19, 2022
If the rumors are true, does that guarantee that their business model failed and they won’t be able to survive the bear market? No, it doesn’t. It suggests it, though.
Featured Image by Cytonn Photography on Unsplash | Charts by TradingView
Solana Poised For Triple Digits, Support Set At $80
Since reaching an all-time high of $259.90 on November 6, Solana has been declining. It has been following a declining resistance line throughout the decline, which was most recently validated on March 2.
Solana Bulls May Push Price Above $100
So far, the price has dropped to $75.35 on February 2. The subsequent bounce confirmed the $73 area as support. This is a horizontal support area as well as the 0.786 Fib retracement support level.
SOL is currently trading at a 66% decrease from its all-time high.
Solana’s price is on the verge of completing one of the most significant percentage decreases since its all-time high in November 2021.
A descending triangle pattern may be seen in the price activity of Solana (SOL). The altcoin reversed course from the falling trendline ($105) on March 2nd, plunging to the $80 neckline. For more over a month, the purchasers have firmly guarded this support, preventing the sellers from extending any further losses.
SOL/USD will hit support at $80. Source: TradingView
With an evening star pattern, the altcoin jumps off its $80 support today, letting traders to build up another comeback. Furthermore, when the coin price approaches the top of the bearish pattern, a significant breakout may be imminent.
If Solana is to avoid a further value decline, it must rise to the $102 level. To reach to this level, it must first break through the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $92 and then close above $100.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Leverage Ratio Suggests More Decline May Be Coming
If buyers can push SOL prices to $102, the coin will have broken through a key resistance level and will be poised for a powerful comeback. If prices continue to rise, the token will reach $111, but if no significant market support emerges, the token will be unable to move any further.
Since Ukraine indicated that it was no longer interested in joining NATO, the bitcoin market has turned positive. Due to expectations that the war between Russia and Ukraine may finish, the positive streak could continue. As a result, SOL has a good chance of recovering to $150 or higher.
Bears Await
Solana may turn bearish on the market, weakening buyer support. The market has been in a state of flux during the last few weeks. As one trend has yet to emerge and take shape. As a result, there’s a chance the present upswing could be broken. Solana may drop to historical lows.
If Solana falls below $85, it may test the lower support levels. If the token continues to fall, the final support level of $80 could be tested.
If it breaks through this support level, a sharp drop in pricing is likely, with the $50 level being tested soon. This might push SOL to new lows. Such lows may entice traders looking to profit from such a significant drop.
Related article | Solana Guns For $100 Barrier, Will Bulls Win The SOL?
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView.com
Are We In A Bear Market? Glassnode Analyses The Latest Bitcoin Crash
Let’s cut to the chase: Glassnode thinks we’re in a bear market. In their latest “The Week On-Chain” newsletter, the company tries to “establish the likelihood that a prolonged bear market is in play” by “using historical investor behaviour, and profitability patterns as our guide.” One thing’s for sure, the recent crash was severe, and “such a heavy drawdown is likely to change investor perceptions and sentiment at a macro scale.”
Related Reading | Bitcoin Leads As Markets Sees Record Outflows. Bear Market Incoming?
How severe was it? According to Glassnode, “this is now the second worst sell-off since the 2018-20 bear market, eclipsed only by July 2021, where the market fell -54% from the highs set in April.” Apart from the price, investors “capitulated over $2.5 Billion in net realised value on-chain this week.” Who were those paper hand investors? “The lion’s share of these losses are attributed to Short-Term Holders.” Of course.
Glassnode Points Out The Bear Market Indicators
- The first indicator Glassnode goes for is “The Net Unrealised Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric.” Which measures “the overall market profitability as a proportion of market cap.” How is Bitcoin doing on that front? “NUPL is currently trading at 0.325 which indicates that an equivalent to 32.5% of the Bitcoin market cap is held as an unrealised profit.”
BTC Price Drawdown from ATH | Source: Glassnode
How does this point to a bear market? “Considering previous cycles, such low profitability is typical in the early to mid phase of a bear market (orange). One could also reasonably argue that a bear market started in May 2021 based on this observation.” This is not enough, though. But Glassnode has more.
- The second indicator the company hit us with is “The MVRV Ratio.” This one “is calculated as the market cap, divided by the realised cap; and is a useful tool for identifying periods of high, and poor investor profitability.”
How does this point to a bear market? “With a current MVRV-Z reading of 0.85, the market is well within territory visited in bearish markets, and a bearish divergence is noted, similar to the NUPL metric above.” Is this enough? No way. But Glassnode has an ace up its sleeve.
- The third indicator is “the Realised-to-Liveliness Ratio (RTLR).” They use “the Realised Price using Liveliness in the denominator” to calculate this one.
How does this point to a bear market? “The market is now trading below the RTLR price of $39.2k, but above the Realised price of $24.2k. Again, this is often observed during early to mid stage bear markets.”
Who Sold And Who Is Still Holding Strong?
There’s no surprise here. The “Short-Term Holders (STH)” are selling. How does Glassnode define STHs, though? By the age of their coins. “Coins are considered to be owned by STHs when they are younger than ~155-days, and are statistically more likely to be spent in the face of volatility.” No surprise there either.
It’s worth pointing out that the STH’s coins are “currently held at a loss.” In fact, “as of this week, almost the entire STH supply is underwater.” That could be scary for newcomers, so those coins are at risk of being sold. At a loss. These people are going to regret their emotional decisions for life, but that’s a topic for another article.
BTC price chart for 01/24/2022 on Oanda | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
The other question here is, who’s holding strong? According to Glassnode, “Interestingly, STH supply remains near multi-year lows, which is indicative of their counter-part, the Long-Term Holders (LTHs), who appear impressively unfazed by such a severe drawdown.” Of course. People who already understood the game are not easy to shake.
How are the LTH’s coins doing? “Over 59.3% of the circulating supply has now been dormant for over 1yr, increasing by 5.8% of circulating supply in the last three months.” This sounds bullish, but Glassnode finds a way to rain on the LTH’s parade. “Whilst a rising, and large proportion of mature coins is generally considered constructive, it once again bears similarities to a bear market, a time when only the HODLers and patient accumulators remain.”
Related Reading | Bitcoin Bottom Signal From Bear Market, Black Thursday Could Save The Bull Run
Conclusions And Hopium
According to Glassnode, one could argue that the “bear market started in May 2021.” Does it feel like a bear market, though? No, it doesn’t. It doesn’t feel like a bull market, either. We may be in a new phase and the Bitcoin cycle is dead. Or maybe we’re just in a bear market as Glassnode tried to prove. Either way, LTHs are not selling.
Featured Image by mana5280 on Unsplash | Charts by Glassnode and TradingView
The differences in trading in a bullish and bearish market, explained
Understanding the difference between bullish and bearish markets can help traders minimize risk in their investment portfolio.
Bitcoin Short Squeeze Revives Trading Volume And Volatility
After what seems like a thousand years of stability and a slight downtrend, bitcoin is back. Volatility is wreaking havoc. Trading volume seems to be picking up steam. And, more importantly, the community’s morale is climbing up. In any case, what do the data and the on-chain analysis say? Are the numbers high enough to justify the excitement? Let’s explore them.
BTC price chart for 07/27/2021 on Bitstamp | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
Trading Volume Is Climbing, But, Is It A Trend?
According to Arcane Research, “On Monday, the daily trading volume in bitcoin reached $9.2 billion, which is the highest daily trading volume in bitcoin recorded since June 22nd.” That could be a good sign of a healthy market making a recovery, but hold your horses. The market had been stagnant for a while, and not only that, before the spike we had “Four consecutive days bellow $3 billion.”
Related Reading | Bitcoin Trading Volume Plunges To Lowest Level Since 2020
Even though $9.2M is a promising number, take into account that “Overall, the 7-day average trading volume remains substantially below its yearly average and trading activity in bitcoin seems to be low so far this summer.” From where we stand, there’s no way of knowing if the market is picking up or if we are witnessing a statistic anomaly. We’ll have to wait and see.
BTC Daily Volume is rising | Source: Arcane Research
Volatility Is Back In Action, But, Is It Here To Stay?
Even though traditional finance is afraid of it, the Bitcoin community thrives on volatility. And, again according to Arcane Research, “Yesterday, the markets moved towards the upside, leading the 7-day volatility to climb above the 30-day volatility.” So, volatility is back, but, are we off to the races? Don’t be so sure.
“Last summer, a similar event occurred when bitcoin was consolidating throughout the summer on declining volatility, before seeing a sudden 11% gain on July 27th, 2020. Then, the market corrected back toward the lower end of the consolidation range quickly thereafter and remained within its consolidation range throughout the summer.”
Are we in the same cycle, though? So far, 2021 has been insane for Bitcoin. All the predictions fell through. All the models seem to be failing. And there’s hope. The bull run might be over, but it also might not. And if we are still in the bull run, there’s no point comparing the situation to last summer. We might be in a whole different ball game.
BTC/ USD Volatility is wreaking havoc | Source: Arcane Research
The Short Squeeze That Generated This
Everything happened “On Monday, $750 million worth of shorts got liquidated, as bitcoin climbed from $34000 to $39500. This is the largest short squeeze we’ve recorded in bitcoin, surpassing the squeeze amid bitcoin breaking its 2017 ATH on December 16th-17th.” That catastrophic event shifted Bitcoin’s tectonic plates and put volatility, trading volume, and everything in motion. How long will it last, though? That’s the question.
Related Reading | $150 Million In Short Squeeze Liquidated As Bitcoin Scales Above $53,000
About the short squeeze is worth noting that “Binance changed their API following the May 19th crash,” so the numbers might not be precise. In fact, according to Arcane Research, the situation might’ve been “severely underestimated by Bybt. This short squeeze was, therefore, very likely far larger than $750 million.”
Featured Image by Steve Buissinne from Pixabay - Charts by TradingView
Crypto Capital Manager: Ethereum and Bitcoin Selloff Was A “Bear Trap”
Was the recent crypto crash bound to happen? Or was it engineered? Is the bull market over for good? Or is the market gaining momentum, preparing for big movements? Your guess is as good as ours, but Moonrock Capital’s Simon Dedic is of the opinion that weak hands got their foot caught in a bear trap. Once again, they fell for a rich man’s trick.
Before we explore the case further, let’s make sure we’re on the same page by consulting Investopedia’s description of what happens in a bear trap:
To increase demand and get stock prices to rise, institutions might push prices lower so that the markets look bearish. This causes novice investors to sell stock. Once the stock drops, investors jump back into the market, and the stock prices rise with the increase in demand.
And let’s read exactly what Dedic said:
I tend to believe this was just a massive bear trap.$BTC to 100k and $ETH to 9k still possible for me.
— Simon Dedic (@scoinaldo) May 25, 2021
So, were the sellers played? Let’s find out.
Related Reading | The Level Bitcoin Bulls Must Reclaim To Defend The Worst Monthly Selloff Ever
Where were we before this possible bear trap?
A mere month ago, Bitcoin was going through a long consolidation period and Ethereum was booming. The “flippening” narrative returned and all eyes were on the upcoming hard fork “London,” which will make ETH a deflationary asset. Then, the crypto crash happened. And of course, NewsBTC reported it:
A week ago, Ethereum was riding high after hitting a new all-time high of $4.4k. Since then, ETH has been caught in a downtrend, with things getting much worse due to the crypto crash.
At one point, at the height of the panic selling, the price of Ethereum dipped as low as $1.9k before wicking back up. That’s a 57% loss from its all-time high.
The situation doesn’t look as hopeless at the moment. Ethereum is on an uptrend and each coin costs $2.813 at the time of writing.
ETH price chart on Kraken | Source: ETH/USD on TradingView.com
Where are Ethereum and Bitcoin right this minute?
The market looks healthy, even if it took a beating over the weekend. Both cryptocurrencies are slowly gaining traction at comparable speed. The ride feels stable now, and we all know what that means… surprises ahead. Coindesk has Steven McClurg, CIO at Valkyrie Investments, predicting what these surprises might be:
“Due to the law of large numbers, it takes many more users today than it did a year ago to increase activity on the bitcoin network to the point it drives the price higher,” said McClurg. “ETH is getting traction due to ETH 2.0 and those staking their assets to the network in anticipation of proof-of-stake, taking out supply as demand comes in.”
Is he right? So far, stats and charts don’t show it. In fact, the trends are at the exact same level as when our sister site Bitcoinist called off the flippening:
Ethereum has still around 40% of Bitcoin’s market cap. And the percentage is exactly the same if we compare the active nodes. It already surpassed BTC in everything that has to do with transactions, from quantity to fees generated. And ETH is not even close in Google search interest and active addresses.
Related Reading | TA: Ethereum Faces Hurdles, Here’s What Could Trigger Strong Recovery
For a closer look at the stats, check here.
The Flippening, Market Cap chart | Source: Blockchain Center
Did we fall into a bear trap, then?
If we did, we’re still in there. So, we don’t yet have the necessary perspective to make a call. Certain indicators point that way, though. For example, this crypto enthusiast seems to have identified a historical pattern:
#Bitcoin Macro bull-cycles
2011:
– Duration 9 Month’s (after prev. ATH)
– Bear trap in Month #62013:
– Duration 9 Month’s
– Bear trap in Month #52017:
– Duration 9 Month’s
– Bear trap in Month 62021 / Now: We’re in Month #6
— CryptoAmsterdam (@damskotrades) May 21, 2021
And this whale is undecided but hopeful:
Not ready to rule out the possibility that we’re somewhere around here: pic.twitter.com/mXLVq3hfez
— Whale (@elwhale) May 24, 2021
In any case, bear traps only catch amateurs. This has nothing to do with a diamond-handed person such as yourself. Still, it’s nice to know where we’re standing. Or, at least, to theorize about it.
So, $BTC to 100K and $ETH to 9K? Definitvely possible for us.
Featured Image by Kaylyn Mok on Unsplash - Charts by TradingView
Everyone is buying the dip, but are they all buying BTC?
Despite Glassnode charts showing Bitcoiners are filling their bags, exchanges are seeing record inflows as investors trade their BTC for ETH.
Bitcoin Supply Lights Up With Activity Due To Trading Range Boredom
This three-months-and-counting consolidation period Bitcoin is in has many investors with the finger on the trigger. Even though we’re in the middle of an Altseason of sorts, mainly caused by the lack of price fluctuation Bitcoin is exhibiting, the hunters seem to be ready. A recent Arcane Research report shows that, in the last year, a whopping 8.45 million BTC have circulated. That’s 45% of the total circulating supply changing hands or, at least, wallets.
The last active supply circulation peak happened on February 23rd, 2018. At that time, 59% of the total was moving around. That was two months after the peak of the bull market. But, as Arcane Research points out, “We are still far away from the peak of the 2017-2018 era, both in terms of percentage and also in absolute values.” This means we could be on the verge of a new high octane ride.
Bitcoin is on the move | Source: Arcane Research
The larger the consolidation period, the bigger the uptrend
On a previous time that Bitcoin’s price flatlined, NewsBTC reported on an analyst’s prediction that came true with a vengeance.
Bitcoin could be on the cusp of seeing some massive momentum in the mid-term.
He is even setting his sights on a move to $40,700, which may act as short-term resistance.
“This consolidation on $btc has given more breathing room for our *allowed* mean reversion cushion. We could pump to 40.7k and still be within the accepted reversion band level above the basis. TLDR: Bullish on more upside for bitcoin soon.”
And over at our sister site Bitcoinist, they reported on a prediction of an imminent long-squeeze that also came true:
Bitcoin’s short-term upside potential is currently being hampered by the high funding rates for leveraged positions.
This could indicate that being long is an incredibly crowded trade and that a Bitcoin long-squeeze is imminent.
“TWAPs & daily opens seem to be really important these days. Funding is getting pretty high again though, so I don’t think there’s a whole lot of room for further upside.”
When the price fell, liquidations were brutal and wiped out Billions worth of contracts. The futures market broke all kinds of liquidation records, as traders were clearly overleveraged. That means that the road is clear. And the fear of inflation is not going anywhere:
The richest individuals in the world are now buying Bitcoin to prevent their wealth from evaporating into thin air. And if inflation expectations are only now breaking out from a ten-year downtrend, Bitcoin’s uptrend might only just be getting started.
BTC price chart on Bitbay | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
Are we being too optimistic?
Despite all those signs, nothing’s guaranteed. The trading range has been thin for months and Bitcoin’s current active supply might be on the move, but other factors might be at play. And, as NewsBTC reported, a “reset” might come sooner than later.
According to cryptocurrency analyst Dave the Wave, who has supplied accurate analysis to the community through his Twitter soapbox for years now, Bitcoin could be looking at a strong “reset.”
Things might have taken off too quickly and too powerfully for Bitcoin price this time around, causing the LMACD to become overextended and brushing up against a long-term trendline.
It should be noted that Dave the Wave thinks that, after the possible reset, we’re “off to the races again.” So, the point is that even though the sea seems calm right now, we’re bound to see incredible action soon. The stage is set for a storm of epic proportions. And Bitcoins are moving around waiting for the right time to… move even more.
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