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Fed Could Hike Interest Rates By 75 BPS, Here’s What It Means For Bitcoin

The FOMC meeting is currently looming above the financial markets, including bitcoin, given that it is just a few days away. Previous interest rate hike trends and the fact that inflation remains a prominent threat have led to a negative outlook for the FOMC meeting. It is expected that another Fed interest rate hike is on the horizon, which will no doubt have a profound effect on the crypto market.

FOMC Meeting Draws Near

The next FOMC meeting will take place on November 1-2 according to the official schedule. It happens around once every one to two months and is important as this is where the Fed decides what to do in regard to the economy and keeping it healthy.

Unlike the previous years, 2022 has been a very hard year, not just for the United States economy, but for economies all around the world. Inflation rates have been reaching levels not seen in decades and the Fed has had to tighten up its policy in response to this.

Interest rate hikes have been the norm for the last couple of months, in most cases, coming in higher in most cases than expected. This time around, Wu Blockchain has said that the expected interest rate hike is 75 BPS, with an 81% probability of this happening. If it does play out this way, then this would be the fourth consecutive interest rate hike of 75 bps by the Fed, which could have negative consequences for assets in the crypto space such as Bitcoin.

How Will Bitcoin Respond?

The past performances of bitcoin in relation to interest rate hikes by the Fed can often be a guide for what to expect in the future. If the current prediction for another 75 bps turns out to be right, then it will be an extremely volatile week for bitcoin and the crypto market.

Bitcoin price chart from TradingView.com

BTC continues to trend upward | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Back in September when the Fed had last increased interest rates, the price of bitcoin had responded quite negatively. In fact, it would prove to be the most volatile reaction to the FOMC meeting given that BTC’s price had dropped more than 5% in one minute. This was going off a three consecutive interest rate hike.

Another interest rate hike this week is expected to lead to even larger volatility in the market. This will also coincide with the profit-taking that is currently ongoing due to bitcoin’s recovery above $20,000. It could be the last straw that drags the digital asset back below $20,000 once more.

However, the interest rate hikes are not expected to continue indefinitely. It is likely that 2023 is going to see a reversal in this trend, which would present a growth opportunity for risk assets such as biotin. 

Featured image from Coinews, chart from TradingView.com

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Prepare For Volatility: Data Suggests Bitcoin Gets Chaotic During FOMC Meetings

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the market have had an interesting week-and-a-half. From the CPI report to the completion of the Ethereum Merge, it has been a rollercoaster of volatile activity across the market. Even with this, the market is still not done with its big events. The FOMC meeting is held on Wednesday, which, like in the past, promises unpredictable movements for the crypto markets.

Expect Volatility For Bitcoin

The FOMC meeting has always triggered volatility across not just the crypto markets but various financial markets. Bitcoin’s reaction to the FOMC meeting has also gotten more prominent with the increased correlation with the stock and macro markets. Given this, any FOMC meeting is expected to have a significant impact on the crypto market. 

This is no different from the FOMC meeting that is happening on Tuesday. Previously, the FOMC meeting hours have been very volatile in the space as the market awaits the results of the meeting. As such, it is expected that Wednesday will see a lot of volatility, especially during meeting hours. More specifically, volatility is expected to hit its peak between 17:00-21:00 UTC as had been observed during previous meetings.

Volatility expected during FOMC meeting | Source: Arcane Research

Naturally, bitcoin’s price will respond to the equity indexes during this time and will tend to move in tandem with it. So while investors keep an eye on the crypto market, it will be prudent to also keep an eye on the macro markets during this time as well.

High Swings In Crypto

The reaction of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can vary during this time but the wild swings are to be expected. This time around, the volatility is also expected to be very high because there is uncertainty across the markets regarding if there will be further rate hikes or not.

It actually gives an idea of the importance of the FOMC meeting to different financial markets and now the crypto market, as it becomes a larger contender. Presently, there are reports of an expected rate hike of 100bps. The market has reacted to this by pricing a 20% chance of such a hike.

BTC remains below $20,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Interestingly, the volatility from the FOMC meeting does not seem to last beyond the end of the meeting. In some cases, it has lasted a few hours more, but by the next day, the volatility usually settles and normalizes.

So, in the end, the volatility from this meeting does not command much relevance over a longer period of time. It often acts as a clue for traders regarding how trades should be constructed during this time. If rate hikes continue though, bitcoin’s price may break below $18,000 for the second time this year.

Featured image from Yahoo Money, charts from Arcane Research and TradingView.com

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