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Bitcoin Price Could Hit New All-Time High Before Halving, Here’s Why

The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a turning point, largely driven by recent trends in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Yesterday, Bitcoin’s price rose above $43,000, a movement closely tied to changing dynamics in ETF inflows and outflows, particularly involving the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

On January 29, (Bitcoin ETF Day 12), a notable shift occurred. The Bitcoin spot ETFs witnessed a substantial net inflow of US$255 million, while Grayscale’s GBTC experienced a significant net outflow of $191 million. The other nine ETFs, led by Fidelity and BlackRock, saw a combined net inflow of $446 million, making it the third-highest inflow day for Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin ETF Flow - Day 12

New All-Time High Until Bitcoin Halving?

This scenario of high inflows and reduced outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC presents an intriguing change from previous days, where GBTC outflows dominated and weighed heavily on the market sentiment.

Crypto analyst @WhalePanda, who’s part of the “Magical Crypto Friends” YouTube channels (along with Samson Mow, Charlie Lee, and Riccardo Spagni), commented on this development, stating, “Net inflow of $250 million in a day is crazy. That’s 5800 Bitcoin being removed from the market in just one day.”

He highlighted the significance of this volume, especially when compared to the daily Bitcoin mining rate of 900 BTC. MicroStrategy bought $615 million BTC between November 30 and December 26.

While WhalePanda acknowledged that inflows will slow down one day, he expects this to happen later on. “The increased price is driving more exposure, leading to more inflows, which in turn pushes the price even higher. This is a classic example of the bull cycle flywheel mechanics at play, even before the halving,” he remarked.

The renowned crypto expert further elaborated that “the amount of Bitcoin float will significantly drop over the next couple of days and once the price starts moving with limited supply left… Things can go crazy. No, not $1 million crazy. Crazy for me is breaking ATH before halving.”

In a separate post on X, @WhalePanda expressed his outlook for the week, “This is going to be a big week for #Bitcoin. With GBTC outflows decreasing and a strong inflow day last Friday, we might be seeing the beginning of a new trend.” He emphasized the potential of this momentum to become a self-fulfilling prophecy, driving Bitcoin’s price higher.

Spot BTC ETFs Remain The Focus

Thomas Fahrer, co-founder of Apollo Sats, added context to these massive spot BTC figures, noting, “The 9 New ETFs hold more BTC than Tether, Tesla, Block, and all of the Public Miners combined. Soon they will surpass MSTR, and later even GBTC.”

Bitcoin holdings

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, commented on the potential implications for BTC’s price trajectory, especially in relation to ETH: “With Grayscale outflows appearing to slow down and other Bitcoin ETF flows remaining positive, I’m curious about the future direction of the ETHBTC cross. A lower trajectory seems like the path of least resistance in the near term.”

This confluence of ETF inflows, decreasing outflows from Grayscale, and the anticipation of the upcoming Bitcoin halving are creating a unique bullish market environment. However, at press time, BTC is trading below a key resistance at $43,444.

Bitcoin price

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Analyst Predicts Bitcoin to Hit $250,000 Before Halving

In a post shared on X on January 26, crypto analyst BitQuant forecasts that Bitcoin (BTC) will recover from the current downtrend and surge past its all-time high of $69,000 to over $250,000 before the upcoming Bitcoin halving in April.

BTC to $250,000 before halving | Source: BitQuant on X

Bitcoin To $250,000 Before Halving?

From the chart shared, BitQuant notes that Bitcoin is still trending inside a rising channel. Out of the multi-year uptrend that the coin is in, this channel’s next “touch” is projected to be at around $250,000.

For now, if the trend line guides, Bitcoin has immediate resistance at about $80,000. This level should be the next key target for bulls to retest. According to BitQuant, it is likely that Bitcoin will float above this line to $250,000 by April before the network automatically halves block mining rewards.

Bitcoin price trending upward on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

Extrapolating from the analyst’s preview, the Bitcoin uptrend remains valid until the upper limit defined by the rising trend line is “touched.” Even so, when this level will be breached is not specified.

Once this line is tested, placing the coin at over $250,000, it will likely follow its historical pattern by cooling off. The depth of this retracement is not also defined but is expected to be deep since BitQuant said the coin will “die.”

BitQuant explained that this “dying” period refers to Bitcoin’s price going below its previous all-time high. The retracement will be expected. This is common after halving since supply tends to increase as demand for the coin softens. Despite this temporary setback, BitQuant remains confident that BTC will regain momentum and continue its long-term upward trend.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Issuers Buying, BTC Stabilizes Above $39,500

Though the analyst remains bullish, it is unclear how prices will pan out for now. The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently approved multiple spots for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Though issuers have been ramping up purchases, Grayscale Investments have liquidated their Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), selling shares and dumping coins via exchanges.

Recent data from Lookonchain reveals that GBTC reduced 10,872 BTC worth over $447 million on January 25. Meanwhile, eight spot Bitcoin ETF issuers added 8,744 BTC, with BlackRock adding 4,284 BTC. On January 24, GBTC reduced 13,179 BTC with Fidelity Investments, another spot Bitcoin ETF issuer, buying 4,023 BTC.

GBTC offloading BTC | Source: Lookonchain via X

With BTC finding demand, prices have started stabilizing, looking at the development in the daily chart. The coin is steady above $39,500, rejecting the intense selling pressure of January 22.

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FTX Unloads $1 Billion GBTC Shares; Will The Bitcoin Rally Be “Vicious”?

Fred Krueger, an investor and crypto analyst, is predicting a “vicious” Bitcoin (BTC) rally shortly. He cites the recent unprecedented accumulation of the coin by Wall Street heavyweights.

This surge in institutional interest coincides with the recent approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Wall Street Ramping Up Bitcoin Purchase

In a post on X, Krueger pointed to the substantial Bitcoin purchases by major financial institutions, including Fidelity Investments, BlackRock, and Ark Invest. To illustrate, the analyst noted that Fidelity was buying approximately 4,000 BTC every day. 

Related Reading: Bitcoin Goes To The Doctor: 5 Key Metrics For BTC In 2024

On the other hand, Ark, Krueger continues, has been gobbling upwards of 1,500 BTC daily. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has yet to release its Bitcoin holdings. However, based on the pace of Ark Invest and Fidelity Investment’s accumulation rate, BlackRock is likely buying coins at a faster pace. So far, Lookonchain data places BlackRock’s IBIT holdings of BTC at over 44,000.

ETF funds buying BTC | Source: Lookonchain

If anything, the rate at which these Wall Street institutions are doubling down on Bitcoin is a net bullish for price. Notably, BTC demands remain high more than a week after the United States SEC authorized the first spot of Bitcoin ETFs. That they are steadily buying suggests that institutions are bullish about Bitcoin’s potential.

The heightened pace of BTC accumulation is less than three months before the network halves its miner rewards. The Bitcoin halving event in early April will reduce miner rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. If past price performance guides, the resulting supply shock might trigger another wave of higher highs, even lifting prices above 2021’s peaks of $69,000. 

BTC Falls, FTX Unloads Millions Of GBTC Shares

Even amid the overall optimism, BTC is still struggling. Days after the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, BTC has been trending lower, shedding double digits. It even temporarily fell below $40,000 on January 23 before recovering to spot rates.

Bitcoin price trending downward on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

Analysts pin the sell-off to FTX, the defunct crypto exchange, off-loading an estimated $1 billion of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). With the FTX estate selling their stake in GBTC, prices are expected to stabilize as the unique selling event is alleviated and institutions double down, buying more BTC at spot rates.

Observers also note that GBTC outflows were matched or surpassed by the spike in inflow to other funds, mostly BlackRock’s ETF product. 

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Analyst Foresees Bitcoin Downtrend Until GBTC Is Liquidated

Chris J Terry, a cryptocurrency analyst and enthusiast, has revealed his insights on the price action of Bitcoin, predicting a continuous decline in the price of the crypto asset.

Analyst Says Bitcoin Will Continue To Drop

The crypto analyst shared his insights regarding Bitcoin with the cryptocurrency community on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), anticipating a possible “continuation of a flat or declining trend.”

He highlighted that the downtrend will continue until Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is fully “liquidated.” According to him, the liquidation will be possible with a whopping $25 billion worth of selling activity over the next few weeks.

Terry cites Grayscale’s choice to keep Bitcoin ETF fees at 1.5% as the cause of what he sees to be the “biggest strategic error” in cryptocurrency history. This implies that Grayscale’s action might have a long-term impact on the crypto market and may prevent wider adoption.

The post read:

Looks like the BTC price will continue flat/down until GBTC is liquidated, $25B of selling over the next few weeks. Grayscale decision to keep ETF fees at 1.5% will go down as the biggest strategic error in crypto history. Greedy idiots.

His analysis emphasizes how investment vehicles are interconnected and how this affects the state of the cryptocurrency market as a whole. However, this has attracted disbelief from a few famous figures in the community.

One of the figures who has expressed disbelief is Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz. He asserted that he “disagrees” with Chris Terry’s analysis because although Novogratz experts some selling pressure activity, he believes investors will move to other ETFs, especially supporting BTCO. Novogratz also pointed out that the Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) is his favorite among the products.

Furthermore, Novogratz highlights the significance of maintaining perspective in light of transient market conditions. He noted that the latest development will facilitate older investors’ or boomers’ entry into the crypto landscape.

In addition, he has highlighted the potential for enhanced leverage by having 4×5 exposure to Bitcoin via BTCO. He then shared an optimistic look, noting that “BTC will go higher in the next six months after this indigestion.”

BTC Sees $25 Million Outflows 

A recent report from Coinshares has revealed that Bitcoin witnessed an outflow of a whopping $25 million. Coinshares shared the information in its most recent weekly “Digital Asset Fund Flows.”

It also noted a massive $11.8 billion in BTC trading volume last week. According to Coinshares, this is seven times more than the average weekly trading activity recorded in 2023.

There were notable withdrawals from digital asset investment products last week, totaling about $24.7 million. Notably, this spike in trading activity indicates that ETFs account for 63% of all Bitcoin volumes on reliable exchanges.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $40,827, indicating a decline of 2.16% in the past day. Despite the price drop, its trading volume is currently up by over 81% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin

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Bitcoin ETF Makes Waves: Volumes Surge $10 Billion 3 Days

Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have once again garnered the attention of crypto enthusiasts and investors as the products have witnessed a whopping $10 billion in total trading volume in the first three days of trading.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Sees Significant Uptick In Day 3 Trading

The development was revealed by Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter). The information shared by the analyst demonstrates a firm desire for exposure to digital assets via regulated financial markets.

Seyffart’s X post delves in on the data from the “Bitcoin ETF Cointucky Derby.” According to the analyst, “ETFs traded almost $10 billion in total over the past 3 days.” 

The analyst also provided a virtual record of the data to further elaborate on the substantial trading volume. With a total volume of over $5 billion, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) stands out as the top performer among the notable financial firms.

BItcoin

Meanwhile, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) come next in line. The data shows that the financial firms witnessed an overall trading volume of $1.997 billion and $1.479 billion, respectively. 

ARK’s 21Shares ETF (ARKB) and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BTTB) followed behind with a substantial total trading volume of $568 million and $258 million, respectively. This spike in trading volume indicates that both institutional and individual investors are growing more at ease utilizing traditional investment engines to trade BTC.

Although Grayscale’s Bitcoin fund continues to gain the highest overall trading volume, the fund has seen significant withdrawals from investors seeking to lower their exposure.

There have been withdrawals totaling more than $579 million since Grayscale started trading on January 11. Currently, Grayscale is still considered the “Liquidity King” of the Bitcoin spot ETFs.

However, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas anticipates that Blackrock might oversee Grayscale to claim the title. “IBIT keeping lead to be one most likely to overtake GBTC as Liquidity King,” he stated.

3-Day Trading Surpassed 500 ETFs In 2023

Following the report, Eric Balchunas has provided a context for the massive surge of these products. The analyst did so by comparing the trading volume of BTC ETFs to all the ETFs that were launched in 2023.

“Let me put into context how insane $10b in volume is in the first 3 days. There were 500 ETFs launched in 2023,” Balchunas stated. According to him, the 500 ETFs completed a $450 million combined volume today, and the best one did $45 million.

In addition, Balchunas highlighted that Blackrock‘s BTC ETF demonstrates a better performance than the 500 ETFs. “IBIT alone is seeing more activity than the entire ’23 Freshman Class,” he stated. It is noteworthy that half of the ETFs launched in 2023 recorded an overall trading volume of “less than $1 million” today.

Balchunas also stressed the difficulty in acquiring volume, noting that it is harder than flows and assets. This is because the volume has to come genuinely in the marketplace, which gives an “ETF lasting power.”

Bitcoin

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The Grayscale Effect: The Bitcoin Price Has A New Prime Trading Hour

The crypto trading landscape is witnessing a paradigm shift with the recent introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, catalyzing a new wave of trading dynamics. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart revealed that the total trading volume of the US spot Bitcoin ETFs over a span of the first three days approached the $10 billion mark.

This substantial volume was predominantly led by Grayscale’s GBTC, with a three-day trading volume amounting to $5.174 billion, followed by BlackRock’s IBIT at $1.997 billion, and Fidelity’s FBTC at $1.479 billion, cumulating to an aggregate trading volume of approximately $9.771 billion.

Despite these impressive figures, Bitcoin’s price performance has not mirrored the trading volume’s growth, a phenomenon analysts attribute to a strategic pivot among Grayscale’s clientele. Investors are increasingly transitioning their capital from Grayscale’s GBTC, with its 1.5% annual fee, to more cost-effective spot BTC ETFs, some offering fees as low as 0.25%.

This shift, however, is not seamless due to the cash-redemption process prescribed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Consequently, investors find themselves navigating a temporal gap, redeeming cash and reallocating it to other spot BTC ETFs, typically a few days later.

Understanding The Grayscale Effect On Bitcoin Price

This operational characteristic of Grayscale’s GBTC, which does not facilitate same-day cash redemptions for BTC and operates on a T+2 or T+1 settlement basis, has given rise to a discernible trading pattern. Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, provided insight into this phenomenon, stating:

We’re seeing significant Bitcoin trading volume now during US hours, particularly between 3-4pm NY now during the ETF fix, escalating into what has lately been a predictable Grayscale dump into the close. The game is evolving.

Echoing this sentiment, Daan Crypto Trades observed a consistent pattern in Grayscale’s operations, highlighting, “Grayscale is sending X amount of Bitcoin to Coinbase ~1 hour before the market opens every trading day. Will be a good indicator to gauge how bad the outflows of GBTC are I think. 4K BTC was sent Friday. 9K BTC was sent [Monday].”

Further substantiating these observations, Maartunn from CryptoQuant remarked on the tangible outflow of Bitcoin from Grayscale’s fund, particularly to Coinbase, stating, “Data doesn’t lie, as seen once again. Shortly after the inflow of Bitcoin from Grayscale to Coinbase, the Coinbase Premium Gap, previously positive, turned negative for the first time this year, indicating strong selling pressure from Coinbase.”

He emphasized the correlation between these events and the increased trading volume on Coinbase, especially during the trading hours of the American stock market.

Crypto analyst James Van Straten further detailed the pattern of Grayscale redemptions to Coinbase Prime, noting, “We’re starting to see a pattern of Grayscale redemptions to Coinbase Prime just before the market opens. 9k Bitcoin ($387M) sent to Coinbase Prime all before 2:30 (GMT) on Jan 16. On Jan. 12, 4k Bitcoin before the market opened.”

As these patterns continue to manifest and evolve, the Grayscale effect is evidently reshaping the prime trading hour for Bitcoin, introducing a new layer of complexity and strategy in the crypto trading arena. Importantly, the Grayscale selling pressure will not last forever, but as long as it exists, it could continue to put some pressure on the Bitcoin price.

Until then, following the Grayscale flows could be crucial for determining BTC price trends. Grayscale still holds circa 587,000 to 617,000 Bitcoin, depending on the data provider.

At press time, BTC traded at $42,754.

Bitcoin price

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Grayscale Moves Nearly $1 Billion Worth Of Bitcoin In Past Month – Report

According to the latest report, asset management firm Grayscale has been transferring large amounts of Bitcoin to various wallet addresses over the past month. This data revelation comes days after the asset manager’s application to convert its Bitcoin trust to a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) was approved by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

It is believed that the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is one of the largest Bitcoin entities in the world. In September 2023, crypto analytics platform Arkham Intelligence discovered the asset manager’s multi-billion dollar BTC holdings across more than 1,750 wallet addresses.

How Much Did Grayscale Send To Coinbase?

CryptoQuant’s founder Ki Young Ju revealed  – via a post on the X platform – that Grayscale has moved about 21,400 BTC to different wallet addresses in the last 30 days. The CEO also highlighted that some of the funds were sent to Coinbase, the largest centralized exchange in the United States.

Specifically, the recent conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to a spot BTC ETF has put some spotlight on the firm’s funds movement in recent days. This is because the shares of GBTC are now redeemable for Bitcoin following the ETF approval on January 10.

However, Arkham Intelligence data on Friday, January 12, a day after the spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in the US, revealed that Grayscale’s Bitcoin trust sent 894 BTC (about $41 million) to Coinbase in a single transaction. This amount sent to the exchange represents about 0.15% of GBTC’s total holdings.

Arkham’s data shows that an additional $119 million in BTC was sent to other addresses on January 12. Interestingly, these funds outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust are believed to have caused the sudden downturn in the price of BTC on Friday.

Popular crypto trader Ran Neuner agreed with this belief, saying that the Bitcoin price is “dumping” as investors are selling their GBTC shares. Neuner said in his post on X:

GBTC held $25bn+ worth of Bitcoin that has been locked up for years with no option to be sold. As soon as the redemption option opened, for the first time people are starting to exit – as they exit the Bitcoin must be sold on the market.

Bitcoin Price Overview

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at $42,805, reflecting a 7% decline in the past 24 hours. The premier cryptocurrency has reversed most of its gains in the past week after initially falling to below $42,000 on Friday.

According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin’s price is down by about 2.5% in the last seven days. Nevertheless, BTC maintains its position as the largest cryptocurrency in the sector, with a market cap of $838 billion.

Grayscale

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Analyst Predicts $570 Billion Inflow Amid Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval

Scott Melker, a cryptocurrency analyst and advocate has pointed out a massive inflow into Bitcoin following the approval of BTC Spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).

Bitcoin Might Be Poised For $570 Million Inflow

The crypto analyst shared his projections with the entire cryptocurrency community on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter). Melker proposed that $570 billion could be invested in a Bitcoin ETF, representing just 0.5% of the overall assets managed by Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs).

In the X post, Melker pointed out that the overall assets managed by RIAs are currently valued at $114 trillion. He also highlighted that the total market capitalization of Bitcoin is currently pegged at $860 billion.

The post read:

RIAs manage $114 TRILLION in assets. If a measly half of a percent of that money eventually comes into a #Bitcoin ETF, that would be roughly 570 billion dollars. The entire market cap of $BTC now is $860 BILLION.

Several crypto analyst seems to disagree with Melker’s projections and have shared their opinions on his claims. One of the analysts who has voiced his opinions toward the prediction is top Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas.

Eric Balchunas asserted that the RIAs assets valued at $114 trillion “seems really high.” He further added that the total advisor assets are worth around $30 trillion, due to data from market tracker Cerulli.

However, Melker backed up his claims by sharing a data screenshot from Thinkadvisor. Thinkadvisor highlighted that “15,114 fiduciary investment advisors currently manage $114 trillion in assets for 61.9 million clients.”

Another crypto enthusiast who has expressed displeasure with Melker’s inflow prediction is investment advisor Rick Ferri. The advisor challenged Melker noting that his “expectations are overblown.”

Ferri asserted that despite his 35 years of advisory experience, he still doesn’t understand why Melker would make such claims. Additionally, Ferri stressed that if any adviser decides to own BTC, they would have done so through Grayscale Bitcoin (BTC).

BTC Spot ETF To Serve As A Game-Changer For Crypto Market

Melker’s post came in response to Bruce Fenton’s post on how the Bitcoin Spot ETF could be a game-changer for crypto. Fenton predicted a dramatic change in the future while highlighting that several brokers, financial advisors, and RIAs are not knowledgeable about BTC.

According to the crypto investor, financial advisors must “keep up with what the public and customers are talking about.” Additionally, he noted that Bitcoin ought to be included in many portfolios, given its past 10 years of performance and correlation.

He also added that “financial advisors will follow the money and the trends.” Fenton asserted that advisors are not stupid about money and they will be motivated to learn.

Fenton went further to say that large investment firms would spend billions promoting to their clients Bitcoin-based investments. This would lead to chief economists talking about it, public awareness of its importance, and the creation of the best ads.

Bitcoin