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Historical Trends Show What To Expect For Bitcoin Price Following The Halving

The 2024 Bitcoin halving is only two days away, and there are already varying expectations of what might happen to the BTC price once the event is completed. One way to get an idea of how it could play out for the Bitcoin price, though, is through historical data and how the cryptocurrency has performed at times like these.

Bitcoin Price Trends For Previous Halvings

There have been three halvings so far since Bitcoin was first launched in 2009 and with each one, Bitcoin has demonstrated various reactions to the event. The first halving took place on November 28, 2012, the second happened on July 9, 2016, and the last one was on May 11, 2020.

For the purpose of this report, only the last two halving will be referenced given that adoption had began to climb at the time that these two happened. The 2016 halving happened when Bitcoin was trading around $650, but in the weeks following the halving, the BTC price would drop another 30%, reaching as low as $460 before climbing back up once again.

Bitcoin halving 2016

Then, during the 2020 halving, the BTC price was trending just under $10,000, and following the halving, would see a drop in price as well. However, this drop was not as significant as the 2016 drop, with the BTC price only falling around 15% during this time.

Bitcoin halving 2020

This has formed quite a trend with the halving, where the Bitcoin price falls after the event, which is expected to be bullish. Therefore, if this trend continues, then BTC could see a sharp drop in price despite the expectation that the halving will be bullish for price.

However, it is important to consider that subsequent halvings have seen a lower post-halving crash compared to their predecessors. So, if this holds this year, Bitcoin could still be looking at a crash but to a much lesser degree. For example, the 2020 post-halving crash was half of the 2016 post-halving crash, so holding this trend, the crash this time around could only be an around 7-8% crash.

BTC Deviates From Established Halving Trends

While the historical data does suggest where Bitcoin could be headed following the crash, it is also important to note that the digital asset has deviated from a number of pre-halving trends. One of these deviations is the fact that the Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high before the halving, something that has never happened before. This could suggest that there will be a complete deviation from these established trends, meaning that a crash may not follow the halving after all.

Another deviation is that the few weeks leading up to the last two Bitcoin halvings have been green. However, in 2024, the last three weeks leading up to the halving have been red as the BTC price has been in decline. This also lends credence to the fact that there could also be a deviation from its post-halving trends.

One thing to keep in mind though, is that the crypto market has always been uncertain and Bitcoin has a habit of doing what no one expected. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has seen a pull back from the extreme greed territory, but it continues to remain in greed, which means investors are still bullish. In this case, if Bitcoin were to do the opposite of what is expected, then it could follow the established trend and crash back down.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Crypto Exchanges Bitcoin Supply Can Only Last For 9 Months, ByBit Report

Cryptocurrency exchange and trading platform, Bybit has released a new report highlighting the impacts of the upcoming Bitcoin halving event on the supply dynamics of Bitcoin within exchanges in the crypto space. The crypto firm has provided valuable insights on how the halving event would enhance scarcity and considerably influence the price of BTC. 

Exchanges Set To Face Bitcoin Supply Crunch

On Tuesday, April 16, Bybit published a new report, providing a detailed analysis of the Bitcoin halving event set to take place this month. The crypto firm disclosed that the Bitcoin reserves within the world’s crypto exchanges have been depleting at a rapid pace, leaving only nine months of BTC supply left on exchanges. 

For a clearer perspective, Bybit explains that with just two million Bitcoin left in its total supply, a daily influx of $500 million into Spot Bitcoin ETFs would result in approximately 7,142 BTC leaving exchanges daily. This suggests that it would take only nine months to completely consume all of the remaining BTC reserves on exchanges. 

Bybit has stated that a major contributor to this supply squeeze would be the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which would reduce the cryptocurrency’s total supply by 50% by cutting Bitcoin miners’ rewards in half. 

The crypto exchange has also disclosed that after the halving event, the sell-side supply of BTC flowing into Centralized Exchanges (CEXs) will become grossly reduced. Additionally, Bitcoin’s “supply squeeze will ostensibly be worse.”

BTC To Become “Twice As Rare As Gold”

In its report, Bybit compared Bitcoin’s supply after the halving event with that of gold. The crypto exchange revealed that Bitcoin was steadily growing to become one of the safest investment choices, even for the most seasoned and sophisticated investors within the crypto space. 

According to the exchange, the Bitcoin halving event would significantly impact the cryptocurrency’s scarcity factor, making it an even rarer asset than gold. 

Basing this analysis on the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio, Bybit disclosed that Bitcoin’s S2F ratio is around 56 currently, while gold’s ratio is 60. After the halving event this April, Bitcoin’s S2F ratio is projected to increase to 112. 

“Each Bitcoin halving sharpens the narrative of Bitcoin as not just a currency, but a scarce digital asset, akin to digital gold. This upcoming halving in 2024 will thrust BTC into an era of unprecedented scarcity, making it twice as rare as gold,” the Co-founder and CEO of Bybit, Ben Zhou stated. 

While highlighting the significance of Bitcoin’s rarity following the halving event, another report also disclosed that the price of Bitcoin would experience significant upward pressure post-halving. This suggests that BTC’S supply squeeze could potentially propel its price to new heights during this period. 

Furthermore, the report revealed that several crypto analysts predict that the post-halving increase in Bitcoin’s price would be less remarkable than the early pre-halving surge which saw the price of Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs of more than $73,000.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Cardano’s Dark Hour: Panic Grips Investors As ADA Loses 22% Of Its Value

As the cryptocurrency market experiences heightened volatility, one digital asset, in particular, finds itself under the microscope: Cardano (ADA).

At the time of writing, ADA was trading at $0.45, down 1.8% and 21.9% in daily and weekly timeframes, data from Coingecko shows.

With prices fluctuating and investors on edge, analysts are closely scrutinizing ADA’s movements for signs of stability or further turbulence.

Analysis Points To Critical Crossroads For Cardano

Recent analysis conducted by Trend Rider, a respected voice in the crypto community, suggests that Cardano’s price has reached a pivotal moment. The digital asset stands at a critical juncture, with its price hovering precariously near a key support zone.

Should ADA breach this support level, analysts warn of a potential plunge to $0.25. However, if Cardano manages to hold this level, it could signal the formation of a double bottom, potentially paving the way for a rally towards the $1 mark.

Amidst this uncertainty, the fate of Cardano appears intricately linked to the movements of Bitcoin, the dominant force in the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin’s Influence On ADA Trajectory

As Bitcoin charts its own course, Cardano investors are keenly aware of the impact that the flagship cryptocurrency’s movements can have on ADA’s price action.

Should Bitcoin embark on a bullish trajectory, it could trigger a sharp decline in altcoins like Cardano, followed by a swift rebound.

Conversely, a bearish path for Bitcoin could spell an extended period of bearish sentiment for the broader crypto market, including Cardano. Despite the uncertainty surrounding Cardano’s future, Trend Rider advises investors to remain calm and adhere to their investment strategies.

In addition to providing guidance for navigating the current market conditions, Trend Rider draws parallels between Cardano’s present situation and its historical performance.

Historical Comparisons Offer Hope Amidst Uncertainty

Drawing from history, Trend Rider points to Cardano’s resilience in the face of adversity. In October 2020, ADA experienced a significant drop in value, plummeting to a mere $0.10 before staging an impressive comeback, reaching a valuation of slightly over $3.

This historical precedent serves as a reminder that Cardano has weathered storms before, and may be poised for a similar resurgence in the face of adversity.

As fear levels peak amidst Cardano’s testing of major support thresholds, investors are reminded of the importance of maintaining a steady hand and a long-term perspective.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

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Lost Treasure Found? Bitcoin Miner Transfers Over $3 Million BTC After 14-Year Dormancy

According to the on-chain analysis platform Lookonchian, a long-dormant Bitcoin (BTC) wallet dating back to April 2010, recently transferred 50 BTC, equivalent to $3.328 million.

Unraveling The Transaction: An Exploration of Potential Motives

As reported by Lookonchian, 50 BTC mined over 14 years ago, when each block reward was 50 BTC, was divided into two transactions: 17 BTC ($1.1 million) for one wallet and 33 BTC ($2.2 million) for another.

The recipient wallet receiving 17 BTC has shown patterns of frequent transactions, possibly indicating its association with a cryptocurrency exchange, particularly Coinbase.

The analysis further reveals that the Bitcoin sent to this wallet was subsequently merged with funds from other wallets associated with Coinbase, suggesting a possible deposit into the exchange.

On the other hand, the remaining 33 BTC were transferred to a new wallet. This could indicate that this Bitcoin may have effectively remained within the miner’s control but under a new address, a common practice to enhance transaction privacy.

Bitcoin Recovery Amid Impending Halving

This recent activity coincides with Bitcoin’s rebound following a sharp decline that saw its price plummet from over $70,000 to $62,000 over the weekend. However, at the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $64,109, marking a 0.5% increase in value over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

This surge in price comes amidst anticipation of the upcoming Bitcoin Halving scheduled to take place in the next 5 days on April 20.

Notably, the Bitcoin Halving is a programmed event that occurs approximately every four years or after every 210,000 blocks are mined. Bitcoin miners’ reward for validating transactions and securing the network is cut in half during this event.

When Bitcoin was launched in 2009, the reward was initially set at 50 BTC per block. However, the reward has been halved, reducing the rate at which new BTC is created. This adjustment is designed to control the supply of Bitcoin, making it more scarce over time and ultimately contributing to its deflationary nature.

Furthermore, recent reports indicate that BTC miners could face losses exceeding $10 billion due to the upcoming Halving event. As Bloomberg reported, this loss could result from several factors, including miners facing intensified competition from AI companies.

Core Scientific CEO Adam Sullivan noted the tightening availability of power in the US, driven partly by tech giants like Amazon investing heavily in data centers. This competition for resources presents further obstacles for miners seeking affordable power contracts.

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradinView

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Don’t Miss The Boat! Ethereum Whales Signal Bullish Run With $40 Million Bet

Ethereum (ETH), the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is experiencing a surge in optimism in the cryptocurrency market. The emergence of two new whales, according to crypto tracking platform Spot On Chain, further adds to the bullish sentiment surrounding Ethereum.

These whales have collectively withdrawn a substantial amount of ETH, totaling nearly 11,700 coins, worth approximately $40 million, from leading cryptocurrency exchange Binance.

Their significant purchase, made when ETH was priced around $3,450, indicates their confidence in the potential for further price appreciation.

Ethereum Trading Volume Soars

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a surge in optimism, fueled by a strong performance from Ethereum (ETH) and the looming Bitcoin halving event.

ETH has seen its price jump nearly 10% in the past 24 hours, reaching $3,679 as of today. This impressive gain is accompanied by a significant rise in trading volume, which has spiked by nearly 70%, surpassing $15 billion.

Whale activity, closely monitored by market analysts due to its potential to offer valuable insights into investor sentiment, plays a pivotal role in shaping the cryptocurrency landscape.

When whales engage in large-scale purchases, it often triggers a ripple effect throughout the market. This phenomenon sees smaller investors and traders being influenced to emulate similar actions, thereby amplifying the positive momentum.

However, amidst the excitement of heightened market activity, it’s essential to acknowledge the potential consequences of increased concentration of assets in the hands of a few entities. While large purchases by whales may initially boost prices, they also pose risks to market stability.

Specifically, such concentration can lead to reduced market liquidity, making the price of assets like Ethereum more susceptible to sudden and significant fluctuations in the future. Thus, while whale activity can serve as a barometer of market sentiment, it also underscores the need for cautious consideration of its broader implications on market dynamics.

Bitcoin Halving Hype Fuels Marketwide Rally

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s impressive rally is not an isolated event. The broader cryptocurrency market is experiencing a period of bullish momentum. Bitcoin, the undisputed leader, has also witnessed a significant surge, climbing above the $72,000 mark. This upward trend is largely attributed to the anticipation surrounding the upcoming Bitcoin halving, scheduled for approximately 11 days from now.

The Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event that occurs roughly every four years. It reduces the number of new Bitcoins awarded to miners for verifying transactions on the network.

Historically, these halving events have been followed by substantial price increases for Bitcoin, as the reduced supply often leads to increased demand and scarcity. Investors are hoping for a similar outcome this time around, contributing to the current marketwide rally.

Renewed Optimism Grips Crypto Investors

The recent surge in prices and trading volumes across the cryptocurrency market suggests renewed optimism and bullish sentiment among investors. Analysts and experts are anticipating further price gains for both Ethereum and Bitcoin in the coming days and weeks.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

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Bitwise CEO Predicts $11 Billion Drop In Bitcoin Supply Post Halving

Over the last week, Bitcoin (BTC)  investors enjoyed much profit as the crypto asset gained 9.34% to trade above $71,000 based on data from CoinMarketCap. Currently, most of the BTC market is highly expectant of the potential large price gains that the current bull cycle could present. 

However, commenting on the immediate future, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley has stated that the upcoming halving event – a key part of the bull cycle – could be the most significant in Bitcoin’s trading history as a result of an impending massive decline in the token’s supply.

Bitcoin Price To Impact Supply Reduction And Token Demand – Bitwise CEO

In a post on X on March 29, Hunter Horsley shared that the Bitcoin Halving event slated for April 2024 could have the most profound supply and demand effects recorded ever in the asset’s history. For context, Bitcoin halving is a phenomenon that occurs every four years in which the block reward for BTC miners is reduced by half.

Horsley began his prediction by referencing the last Halving in 2020, during which BTC’s price was ~$9,000. The Bitwise CEO stated that Bitcoin experienced a significant decline in token supply following the Halving effect, to the tune of ~$9 million per day and ~ $3 billion per year.

Considering that Bitcoin’s price currently hovers around $70,000, Horsley believes that the expected supply reduction will likely be at least three times larger in dollars and is estimated to be $32 million per day and $11 billion. 

With a higher Bitcoin price, Horsley predicts that the expected massive decline in Bitcoin’s supply will be accompanied by a greater decrease in natural selling pressure by miners. In addition, the Bitwise CEO notes this development will concise with the current rise in institutional demand.

Generally, all factors highlighted by Hunter Horsley indicate that Bitcoin will likely experience a magnanimous price surge following the Halving event. Earlier in February, the Bitwise boss predicted BTC could attain $250,000 sooner as a result of investor demand driven by the introduction of the Bitcoin spot ETF.

BTC Price Overview

At the time of writing, BTC is exchanging hands at $70,000 with a 0.65% loss on the last day. The widely acclaimed “digital gold” is up now by 10.45% on its monthly chart  following the price correction in February,

Meanwhile, the BTC’s trading volume has declined by 23.16% and is valued at $24.67 billion. With a market of $1.1 trillion, Bitcoin ranks as the largest cryptocurrency in the world.


BTC trading at $69960 on the hourly chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Forbes, chart from Tradingview