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Is Bitcoin’s Bottom In Sight? Expert Analysis Says Yes

Bitcoin prices could be bottoming, looking at price charts, and this might be one more opportunity for the savvy to accumulate before prices rip higher, according to one optimistic analyst. Taking to X, the analyst, Cryptocon_, said the “Ultimate Oscillator” indicator suggests that Bitcoin is at a “cyclical bottom,” adding that for the “first time,” the indicator has crossed into the cycle bottom zone in the two-week time frame.

Bitcoin Likely Bottoming: Here’s Why

Whether this prognosis is accurate depends on how Bitcoin prices pan out in the next few trading sessions. However, Bitcoin prices have since added roughly 4% since Cryptocon_ first laid out the analysis.

Bitcoin is changing hands at around $28,000, up 12% from September lows. Following the sharp expansion on October 1 lifted BTC above September 2023 highs, a strong start for Q4 2023.

Bitcoin cyclical bottom| Source: Cryptocon_ on X

The Ultimate Oscillator is a momentum indicator built on moving averages. Technically, the indicator is based on the idea that prices tend to close near the highs or lows of the recent trading range.

Accordingly, based on Cryptocon_, Bitcoin is presently at “cyclical bottoms,” the same zone where BTC found support in the tail end of 2022 before bouncing off strongly in Q1 2023.

If historical performance guides, Cryptocon_ believes “Bitcoin is offering traders one last accumulation opportunity,” but “most people will squander the pullback predicting and worrying about the macro.” Current macroeconomic conditions favor another round of interest rate hikes, especially in the United States. Although the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates unchanged in the last session, there are concerns that another hawkish environment could crash the crypto market like it did in 2022.

Is BTC Heading Back To $32,000?

At press time, Bitcoin is trading above August 29 highs in what appears to be a continuation of the bull run set in motion in late August. Still, it is unclear whether Bitcoin bulls have the momentum to push on. 

The daily trading chart shows that the coin is still trending inside the bear candlestick of August 17. The bar was wide-ranging with high trading volumes, cementing the bearish preview that continues to hold from the volume analysis perspective. 

BTC price on October 2| Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

Despite buyers expecting more gains in the sessions ahead, there must be a solid close above August 17 with rising trading volumes, completely reversing losses of mid-August. This move will likely cancel out the bearish preview that, as aforementioned, holds. This might set the ball rolling for a leg up to $30,000 and $32,000 in the sessions ahead.

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Crypto Crisis Imminent, Warns Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone, Despite Bitcoin’s Surge To $28,000

On October 2, Mike McGlone, Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg, took to social media X (formerly known as Twitter) to express his concerns about the state of the crypto market. 

Despite Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent rise, McGlone highlighted a disturbing trend and raised the possibility of a cryptocurrency recession.

Factors Behind Crypto Market’s Recession Risk

McGlone pointed out the concept of “positive beta vs. negative liquidity” and its implications for the cryptocurrency market. 

Bloomberg’s senior Macro Strategist suggested that the weakness observed in the third quarter of 2023 could be either a temporary blip in the recovery or a sign of an impending recession. 

According to McGlone, the latter scenario is more likely, given that most risk assets experienced gains in 2023 but have since rolled over into the new quarter.

The strategist also drew attention to the actions of central banks worldwide, noting that many are tightening their monetary policies despite signs of contraction in the United States and Europe. 

Additionally, McGlone highlighted the ongoing property crisis in China, which carries deflationary implications. He argued that the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index’s (BGCI) relative underperformance may reflect changing conditions for an asset class that has thrived in a zero-interest-rate environment.

Crypto Crisis

Drawing historical parallels, McGlone mentioned the swoons in Bitcoin’s price preceding Federal Reserve (Fed) pivots, implying that cryptocurrencies could serve as leading indicators for broader market liquidity. McGlone suggested that a revival of liquidity may be necessary to support the crypto market.

Bitcoin Maximalist Identifies Key Factors For Remarkable Market Growth

In addition to McGlone’s forecast, increased regulatory scrutiny and implementing stringent regulations by governments and regulatory bodies can significantly impact the cryptocurrency market. 

The United States regulatory bodies have been actively cracking down on the crypto market, causing delays in what was expected to be a bullish run. Lawsuits filed in 2023 and signals of continued regulatory actions by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have created uncertainty and restrictive regulations that can dampen investor sentiment and contract the market. 

Moreover, economic factors contribute to concerns about a potential recession in the digital asset ecosystem. Cryptocurrencies are interconnected with the broader economic landscape, meaning global recessions, monetary policy changes, inflation, or deflation can affect the cryptocurrency market, potentially leading to a recession.

On the other hand, some view the largest cryptocurrencies as safe havens during significant declines in the world’s largest economies. Bitcoin maximalists, including “The Bitcoin Therapist,” assisted by Artificial Intelligence (AI), have identified key factors necessary for Bitcoin and the overall market to achieve remarkable growth. 

These factors include mass adoption, global economic uncertainty, institutional investment, limited supply, increased transaction volume, technological improvements, regulatory clarity, positive market sentiment, halving events, and a global currency crisis. 

While progress has been made in factors such as global economic uncertainty, limited supply, increased transaction volume, technological improvements, and halving events, achieving mass adoption, institutional investment, regulatory clarity, positive market sentiment, and a global currency crisis are still pending.

The strategist’s remarks underline the cautious sentiment surrounding cryptocurrencies despite recent positive movements in Bitcoin’s price. 

McGlone’s analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency market may face significant headwinds due to changing economic conditions, central bank policies, and potential liquidity challenges.

Crypto crisis

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Pro-XRP Lawyer Reveals The Impact Of SEC’s Lawsuit Against Ripple

A pro-XRP lawyer has highlighted more casualties and negative impacts the regulatory authority has inflicted on XRP and its investors as well as individuals and businesses associated with the cryptocurrency. 

So while Ripple has stated it has lost over $200 million in its fight against the US SEC, it seems that is not the only loss that has been incurred in the drawn-out battle. 

SEC Allegedly Damaged 75K XRP Followers

John E. Deaton, a pro-XRP lawyer has taken to X (formerly Twitter) to publicly admonish the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for its series of legal actions and enforcements against XRP, the native token of Ripple Labs. 

Deaton has been a strong advocate for XRP since its fight against the US SEC began in 2020, and the cryptocurrency enthusiast and lawyer has actively participated in the community, airing out his views in defense of the cryptocurrency and its value as a global payment asset. 

In a recent post, Deaton stated that the US SEC has negatively affected thousands of XRP investors and users and these people have been protesting against the SEC’s actions toward the ecosystem for three years.

“The SEC harmed a lot of innocent people in the process. 75K investors, users, developers, and small businesses have been screaming the above for 3 years,” Deaton stated. 

According to a civil filing, the SEC has destroyed more than $15 billion worth of assets owned by innocent holders of XRP who had acquired the token on secondary marketplaces.

Ripple And SEC Legal Battle Developments

RealClearPolicy (RCPC), an American policy website, recently published an article titled “The SEC is not King” on Thursday, September 30. 

In an X repost, Deaton acknowledged the article which highlighted significant aspects of the Ripple and SEC legal case from when the regulatory body filed a lawsuit against the crypto firm earlier in 2020, alleging that Ripple was selling unregistered security offerings. 

Ripple had aggressively defended itself against the SEC and achieved a partial victory after Judge Analisa Torres ruled in favor of Ripple and rejected the SEC’s allegations that sales of XRP tokens on exchanges are security sales. 

In a possible attempt to salvage its reputation and also gain the upper hand against XRP, the SEC filed an interlocutory appeal to reevaluate the Judge’s ruling and its case against the token. In light of this, Deaton published a blog post titled “The Irony of Interlocutory Appeal” last week, castigating the SEC’s appeal scheme to potentially delay the litigation.

The US SEC has also been struck by a blow that may put a dent in its case with XRP. The defense team of Ripple recently exposed a pile of internal SEC documents and secret positions about the token which could significantly undermine the SEC’s argument that XRP should be treated as a security. 

This recent development has thrown a curveball in the ongoing legal battle between the US SEC and XRP, raising questions about the SEC’s intentions for the crypto industry and its method of handling cryptocurrencies.

Ripple XRP price chart from Tradingview.com (Pro-XRP lawyer SEC)

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Bitcoin MPI Forms Death Cross, End of The Rally?

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index (MPI) has formed a death cross recently, a sign that the asset’s rally may end.

Bitcoin MPI Has Formed A Bearish Crossover Recently

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the 365-day moving average (MA) of the BTC MPI has crossed above the 90-day recently. The “MPI” here refers to an indicator that measures the ratio between the miner outflows and the yearly MA.

The “miner outflows” are the amounts these chain validators transfer out of their combined wallets. Generally, the miners take out their coins for selling purposes, so the miners outflows can measure how much dumping they are currently partaking in.

Miner outflows are usually not that unusual, though, as this cohort has to constantly sell what they mine to pay off their running costs like electricity bills. What can be notable, however, is whether their selling deviates from the norm.

The MPI provides us with information about precisely this since it compares the outflows against their 365-day MA. When the metric is greater than 0, the miners are selling more than the average for the past year, while negative values imply the opposite.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 90-day and 365-day MAs of the Bitcoin MPI over the last few years:

Bitcoin MPI

The above graph shows that the 90-day MA Bitcoin MPI (colored in orange) has declined during the last few weeks. Recently, the metric crossed below the 365-day MA, consolidating sideways.

Historically, the crosses of the two MAs of the BTC MPI have appeared to be significant for the cryptocurrency’s price. In the chart, the quant has highlighted the major crossovers that occurred during the last few years.

Whenever the indicator’s 90-day MA has observed a cross above the 365-day MA, BTC has gone off to witness some bullish momentum. Such a cross preceded the April 2019 rally, the 2021 bull run, and the rally that started this January.

On the other hand, the opposite type of cross has proven to be bearish for the asset’s value, as steep declines have followed it. Since this death cross has once again formed for Bitcoin recently, it may signal that this year’s rally has reached its conclusion.

However, the crossover is still in the process of forming, meaning that the coming weeks may be important. If the 90-day MA can turn itself around quickly, then the death cross may not form, but if the metrics continue in their current trajectory, the bearish signal would be solidified.

BTC Price

Regardless of the death cross, Bitcoin has observed some sharp bullish momentum during the past 24 hours, as the asset has surged to the $28,300 level.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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Sam Bankman-Fried’s Closest Friends Will Testify Against Him. Here’s Who Else We’ll Hear From

Several of Bankman-Fried’s former colleagues and friends will testify against the one-time crypto mogul following plea deals they struck with the U.S. Department of Justice, including his former romantic partner Caroline Ellison and childhood friend Gary Wang, who were both deeply involved in the daily workings of both FTX and its quant-driven trading shop, Alameda Research. Another two individuals, who prosecutors have yet to publicly name, may testify if granted immunity, suggesting they may also be tied to the exchange. The DOJ also announced over the weekend that prosecutors intend to call former FTX customers from around the world and investors as witnesses during the trial.

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XRP Price Bloodbath On The Horizon? Report Casts Doubt On Recent Rally

Over a billion dollars in liquidations sent the XRP price and the crypto market back from the dead and into local highs. However, new data suggests the rally might be short, pushing down the nascent sector into critical support.

As of this writing, the XRP price trades at $0.5 with a 4% profit in the last week. The cryptocurrency rallied in the previous 24 hours but has been retracing its steps over the past few hours, hinting at potential losses unless buyers step in and defend these levels.

XRP Price XRPUSDT

XRP Price Braces For Impact?

According to the trading desk QCP Capital, the current rally in the crypto market coincides with seasonality. In the nascent sector, October is known as “Uptober” because major cryptocurrencies, including the XRP price, trend to the upside.

In the past years, every Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP price rally began in October, making it the best month for the market, as seen in the chart below. However, the trading desk warned its followers on social media X about a potential reverse that could have negative effects on cryptocurrencies:

However, we are not fully convinced by this move, and we think that BTC might test super key 25k support sometime in the final quarter of 2023 (…) This aggressive bounce has been due almost entirely to exogenous factors thus far and might not have the momentum to sustain.

XRP price XRPUSDT chart 2 analysis QCP Capital crypto

The trading desk believes these factors may lack the power to sustain the current price action. In addition, the narrative around approving an Ethereum future Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) in the US could set the stage for a bloodbath.

Two years ago, when the price of Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $69,000, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a BTC futures ETF. This event marked the crypto market’s top, making the current ETH future ETF an ominous event for XRP and the altcoin market.

QCP Capital claims that the newly approved financial asset could increase selling pressure in the sector due to adding “synthetic coins” to the market. In other words, the ETH futures ETF creates a disbalance between the supply and demand forces in the sector. The firm added:

We would even go further to say a futures-only ETF is arguably detrimental to spot price – as it potentially directs demand away from the spot market into a synthetic market.

Good News In The Short Term For XRP

The XRP price could benefit from the US government shutdown in the macro arena. The analysis shows that in the past 30 years, each US government shutdown preceded a bull run for the financial market. This is the only positive news for the cryptocurrency in the medium term.

In the short term, XRP still has a chance to run back above $0.6; as for Bitcoin, the trading firm expects the $29,000 to $30,000 resistance to remain intact.

Cover image from Unsplash, chart from QCP Capital and Tradingview

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XRP Price Disappoints: Crypto Analyst Reveals Why He Will No Longer Accumulate

The sentiment around the XRP price has been mostly bullish lately with numerous predictions coming through for a potential rally. However, not everyone has joined the bull bandwagon after being disappointed by the XRP price performance. One analyst in particular has expressed its displeasure at XRP’s performance over the years, and as a result of this, the analyst wants to abandon the token.

XRP Price Value Weakens

One analyst who goes by CryptoCheck on the TradingView platform has put forward reasons for why he is no longer bullish on the XRP price. The analysis shows how XRP has underperformed the rest of the crypto market over the years, leading to the belief that the value of the token has weakened.

CryptoCheck points to the fact that XRP has been unable to reclaim its first and only all-time high even though Bitcoin and a lot of altcoins have been able to do the multiple times. The crypto trader refers to this price performance as unusual when compared to other assets in the industry.

The analyst laments the inability of XRP to put on the same kind of performance as other coins over the years despite its value proposition as being a cryptocurrency for institutions. “Other coins have long surpassed their ATH’s. But XRP made one high, and never again. This speaks of weakness in terms of value. And that can no longer be ignored,” the analyst writes.

Furthermore, CryptoCheck compares the token to the likes of Dogecoin (DOGE) which is widely known for having no value and being a meme coin. Nevertheless, DOGE has hit multiple all-time highs while the XRP price continues to lag behind. “The truth is, if I bought as much DOGE as I did XRP, my portfolio would have been up x100 compared to now,” CryptoCheck adds.

XRP price chart from Tradingview.com

Will No Longer Accumulate XRP

The culmination of CryptoCheck’s analysis comes from the fact that he will no longer be buying the token. According to the crypto trader, he had been religiously buying XRP due to his strong belief and ideology about the value proposition of the token. However, the XRP price performance has been nothing to write home about.

The analyst attributes this to low trading volume for the token and investors not being interested in buying the token. Also, CryptoCheck points to what he referred to as a “Pump and Dump” price action which has led to XRP constantly forming “weak support zones and strong resistance zones.”

Additionally, he explains that the rising unpopularity of XRP translates to weak confidence. As such, investors who are already holding the tokens are looking for a good opportunity to sell and exit, especially short-term traders.

As for the analyst, he explained that the next course of action was to sell. “I have decided I will no longer accumulate. Instead, as soon as the price reaches higher than what I bought for, I will be looking to sell my bags,” he revealed.

Ripple XRP price chart from Tradingview.com (Crypto analyst disappoints)