Author: Dalmas Ngetich

In a post on X, one analyst has picked out a key on-chain metric that could signal the beginning of a strong leg up, similar to the explosive gains 2017. Currently, Bitcoin prices remain steady and edging higher. However, the coin failed to register sharp upswings, as most traders had predicted before the Halving event on April 20.

Flow Indicator Dips: A Bull Run In The Making?

Taking to X, the analyst said there has been a sharp drop in the 7-day average Flow indicator at leading crypto exchanges like Coinbase and Binance. When this was highlighted, the Flow indicator pointed to a decline from 161,000 to 76,000 BTC, a nearly 50% drop. 

Interestingly, a similar pattern emerged in 2017 before Bitcoin embarked on a historic bull run.

The analyst said the Flow indicator dropped to 64,500 BTC across exchanges days and weeks later before prices exploded to around $20,000 in December 2017. 

For now, only time will tell if Bitcoin is preparing for a strong leg up. The coin remains within a bear formation, looking at the candlestick arrangement in the daily chart. Even though prices rose after Halving Day on April 20, sellers are in charge. As it is, the April 13 bearish engulfing pattern continues to define price action. Technically, a close above $68,000 might be the foundation for a rally towards $74,000 in the days ahead.

Bitcoin Supply Rapidly Shrinking

While the Flow indicator points to declining BTC across exchanges, another analyst has discovered an interesting development. Taking to X, another analyst noted that the available Bitcoin supply dipped below 4.6 million for the first time before April 20, when the network halved miner rewards. 

Since Halving reduces daily emissions by half, even if the current demand is sustained, the analyst says a supply squeeze will drive prices higher. Even so, as mentioned earlier, whether BTC will rally depends on the pace at which immediate resistance levels are cleared.

Historically, prices tend to rally a few months after Halving Day. However, in the past few months, there have been notable deviations. For instance, prices soared to all-time highs before Halving Day. This is the first time this has happened.

Beyond technical formations, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. Through this product, institutions are free to gain exposure through shares. These shifting dynamics will shape price action in the current epoch, possibly leading to new deviations from historical performances. 

A recent analysis paints a rosy picture of Bitcoin’s future, even with a conservative growth projection. Taking to X, Michael Sullivan predicts that the world’s most valuable coin could reach a staggering $245,000 within just five years if it maintains a mere 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). 

Bitcoin Projections: From Conservative To Exponential Growth

The analysis explores various growth possibilities for Bitcoin. Assuming the coin’s growth rate significantly contracts in the coming years, growing at just 30% CAGR, Sullivan projects the coin to reach $245,000 by 2029. 

A decade later, it will be at $909,000; by 2039, each coin in circulation will be trading at a whopping $3.37 million. If, however, the CAGR rises to 40%, Bitcoin would be worth $10.3 million in 15 years and $1.9 million in 10 years.

Still, even at these mega valuations, Bitcoin has been soaring at unprecedented rates, outperforming all traditional finance assets since launching. To demonstrate, Bitcoin registered a CAGR of 73.7% over the past four years. 

Therefore, if this trend continues, Sullivan says BTC will smash above the $1 million level a year after halving in 2028. However, half a decade later, each coin will change hands at over $16.5 million. 

A look back at Bitcoin’s history makes it clear that the coin has been on a tear. Following this historical trend and making projections for the future, BTC could be far more valuable in the next five or ten years.

There Are No Guarantees, Crypto Is Dynamic

While these projections are undoubtedly exciting for Bitcoin holders, it’s crucial to remember that they are just projections. The crypto market, just like any other tradable asset, doesn’t move in straight lines. 

As an illustration, after peaking at nearly $70,000 in 2021, prices crashed to as low as $15,600 the following year. In 2017, BTC rose to around $20,000 before tanking to below $4,000 a year later in 2018. This volatility and the dynamic market, influenced by new circumstances, don’t guarantee these lofty projections.

Nonetheless, analysts remain optimistic of what lies ahead, especially after the historic Halving event on April 20. As traditional finance players join in, finding exposure in BTC through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), prices might rise, even breaking above the all-time highs of around $74,000.

Bitcoin may be hovering below its all-time highs, but analysts are turning bullish based on a rare chart formation. Taking to X, the analyst observed that BTC has closed two consecutive months above the upper Bollinger Band on the monthly chart. 

A Rare Bollinger Band Signal Prints: BTC To $140,000?

The analyst said that historically, when Bitcoin closes two consecutive months above the upper Bollinger Band on the monthly chart, prices tend to double within three months. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin will surge to over $140,000 by July 2024, just three months after the Bitcoin halving event.

Bitcoin is trading below $73,800, the all-time high registered in March 2024. However, after weeks of lower lows, the sharp recovery earlier on April 8 suggests buyers could be flowing back. At press time, the coin is changing hands above $71,800, convincingly breaking above the liquidation level of around $72,000. 

Despite the bullish breakout, whether the uptrend continues remains to be seen. Of note is that BTC prices tend to collapse before the Halving, which is set to take place in the coming weeks, dumping to as low as 20%. BTC fell after peaking at $73,800, dropping to around the $60,000 level before snapping back higher to current levels.

A refreshing close above $74,000 might form the basis of even more gains in the days ahead, perhaps towards $100,000 in the weeks ahead.

Another analyst suggests that Bitcoin could rally to $140,000 within four weeks, especially if it follows a similar price pattern to December 2020. After breaking above the $20,000 high of 2017, Bitcoin continued to rally, peaking at around $70,000 for a nearly 3X surge.

Currently, buyers are eyeing the $74,000 mark and the all-time high. If this level is surpassed, as it was in late 2020, the possibility of Bitcoin at least doubling to $140,000 becomes more likely.

Will Halving, Macroeconomic Factors, And Spot ETFs Drive Prices?

The current bullish sentiment might continue. Possible drivers include interest in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). So far, billions have been channeled to these products, lifting demand and thus prices. The upcoming Halving event could further buoy demand, lifting prices even higher in the coming months. 

Beyond Bitcoin-driven fundamentals, analysts are also looking at market events, especially in the United States. Some speculate that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) might not slash interest by at least three times this year as labor conditions become firm and inflation slows down.

If the Fed reduces interest rates, reversing their hawkish outlook, BTC could lead other safe havens in an uptrend.