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Were Bitcoin Miners Behind The BTC Price Crash Below $60,000?

The price of Bitcoin fell drastically towards the $60,000 mark in the days leading up to the just concluded halving. On-chain data has shed light on what could very well be the reason for this price dip in the middle of all the excitement around the halving.

Particularly, data has revealed that some miners have been selling their holdings in the days leading up to the halving event, with the entire BTC holdings of miners hitting a 12-year low. 

Miners’ Bitcoin Holdings Hit 12-Year Low

On-chain analytics platform IntoTheBlock noted this interesting trend amongst Bitcoin miners. According to the platform’s “Miners’ Bitcoin Holdings,” the collective BTC reserve across various miners has now dropped below 1.9 million BTC, its lowest in over 12 years.

Interestingly, the metric shows that miner reserves have been on a continued trend of outflows since the beginning of the year, just after the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs. This means the outflow from miner wallets can be linked to increased demand from the various Bitcoin ETF wallets, with the latter now controlling over 4.27% of the total circulating wallets.

At the time of writing, CryptoQuant data puts the total number of miner reserves at 1.818 million BTC, a decrease of 22,000 BTC from 1.84 million on January 3. Additionally, this outflow from the miner reserves was exacerbated in the days leading up to the halving, as noted by IntoTheBlock.

“This indicates that miners have been net sellers leading up to the halving,” IntoTheBlock said in a social media post.

The persistent selling pressure exerted by miners may have been a contributing factor in Bitcoin’s stagnant pace between $65,000 and $70,000 over the past weeks. This outflow of BTC from miner wallets into the market seems to have flooded the market with more than enough BTC, which in turn contributed to a crash to $60,000 during the week.  

What’s Next For Bitcoin?

The practice of Bitcoin miners selling their holdings in the days leading up to the halving is not unusual, as demonstrated by their actions in past halving events. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $64,978, up 8% after rebounding up at $60,000. The much anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving has now been completed and the industry looks forward to its effect over the next few months. 

The halving is ultimately a balancing act for miners. Although miners’ revenues are cut in half, the reduced Bitcoin supply and possible price increase can help offset some of the losses over time. According to a report, Bitcoin miners could sell up to $5 billion worth of BTC after the halving, with the price of the cryptocurrency potentially falling to $52,000.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

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Battle For The Halving Block: Bitcoin Users Spend Record $2.4 Million On Block 840,000

With Bitcoin finally completing its fourth-year halving cycle, many users are aggressively competing for halving blocks, paying exorbitant amounts of fees to mine a single block. 

Bitcoin Mining Pool Pays Over $2.4 Million In Block Fees

Earlier today, the 840,000th block was added to the Bitcoin blockchain, triggering the onslaught of the highly anticipated halving event. While the price of BTC did not witness a dramatic change following the halving, transaction fees spiked to unprecedented highs. 

Amidst the massive competition, a mining pool identified as ViaBTC had successfully mined the 840,000th Bitcoin block. Cumulatively, BTC users had spent a staggering $37.7 BTC in mining fees, equivalent to $2.4 million, recording the highest fee ever paid for a Bitcoin block. 

According to reports from mempool, after ViaBTC had produced the 840,000th block, the protocol had initiated an automated reduction of miners’ reward by half, from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. In addition to the fees, ViaBTC had received a total payout of 40.7 BTC, valued at approximately $2.6 million, for mining the historic block.  

While it may seem that Bitcoin miners had thrown caution to the wind by spending over $2.4 million on a single block, the 840,000th block had a major significance within the cryptocurrency space. The historic Bitcoin block is said to hold the first Satoshis, ‘sats,’ the smallest units of BTC following the halving. 

There are several of these “epic sats,” that appear after the halving event, coveted as a rare collector’s item among cryptocurrency enthusiasts. Some even speculate that these Bitcoin fragments could be potentially worth millions of dollars. 

Including the hype surrounding these fragmented BTC, much of the competition for the Bitcoin blocks, following the halving has been attributed to the new Runes Protocol which launched at the same time as the Bitcoin halving. 

Degens Rush To Secure Infamous Rune Tokens

The Runes Protocol, created by Casey Rodamor, a Bitcoin developer, has sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency community, as degens are avidly competing to etch and mint tokens directly on the Bitcoin network. 

While mining pools were mining new Bitcoin blocks, degens had paid over 78.6 BTC valued at $4.95 million to mint the rarest Runes. This exponential surge in fees has been an unprecedented event, highlighting the increased adoption and participation of the Bitcoin network.

According to reports from Ord.io, a Rune labeled as ‘Decentralized’ was acquired for a fee of 7.99 BTC, equivalent to $510,760. While another titled ‘Dog-Go-To-The-Moon’ was obtained for a fee of 6.73 BTC, worth approximately $429,831.

Leonidas, protocol developer and host of the groundbreaking Ordinals, a system for numbering “epic sats,” has declared the Runes Protocol a remarkable success as degens have “single-handedly offset the drop in miner rewards from the halving.” He concluded that Runes have significantly impacted Bitcoin’s security budget, potentially playing a major role in ensuring the network’s sustainability.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com (Bitcoin halving)

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Fourth Bitcoin Halving Completed – Here Are The Implications

The long-awaited fourth Bitcoin halving finally occurred after BTC posted its 840,000th block. This event is significant as it is expected to have several implications for the Bitcoin ecosystem and the crypto market going forward. 

What To Expect Following The Bitcoin Halving

The Bitcoin halving slashed miners’ rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC for each block mined. This means that Bitcoin miners are set to earn a reduced income of 450 BTC instead of the 900 BTC they earned before the fourth halving. This development is expected to have a dire effect on their operations, as NewsBTC reported that they could lose a whopping $10 billion following the halving.  

While the effects of the halving are not so pleasant for BTC miners, the halving is deemed necessary for the growth of the Bitcoin ecosystem. It makes Bitcoin (BTC) deflationary by reducing the rate at which more tokens come into circulation. This could make the flagship crypto more scarce and ultimately drive up its value, as it has done in the past three halvings. 

In anticipation of history repeating itself, crypto analysts and experts have made several predictions about how high Bitcoin could rise this time post-halving. So far, the most bullish price prediction remains by Samson Mow, the CEO of Jan3 and Bitcoiner, who predicts that the flagship crypto could rise to $1 million this year. 

He added that this unprecedented price surge was possible considering that BTC’s demand is expected to continue outpacing the supply, with more institutional investors recently getting on board through the Spot Bitcoin ETFs. The imbalance between Bitcoin’s supply and demand is also why crypto analyst MacronautBTC believes Bitcoin could rise to $237,000. 

Billionaire Tim Draper also agrees that Bitcoin could attain such heights based on his prediction that the flagship crypto will hit $250,000 in 2025. 

Implications On The Broader Crypto Market

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe recently predicted a narrative shift post-halving. He expects Bitcoin to take months to consolidate while altcoins significantly move to the upside during this period. This is plausible, considering Bitcoin doesn’t experience that parabolic price surge until about six months after the halving. 

During this period, altcoins like XRP and Cardano (ADA), which have underperformed up until now, will be closely monitored as investors wait to see if they will show any sign of bullish momentum in them. Ethereum (ETH) will also be the focus of many in the crypto community as they watch how the second-largest crypto token by market cap will perform while Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates. 

Interestingly, Van de Poppe expects the narrative to shift to Ethereum and projects in the Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) and Real World Assets (RWA) sector. Therefore, such projects are also worth keeping an eye on. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com (Bitcoin halving)

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Bitcoin Halving: Anticipating Price Impact, Miner Challenges, And Long-Term Outlook

The highly anticipated Bitcoin Halving event is close, bringing with it heightened expectations regarding the long-term impact on the Bitcoin price. 

There are concerns, however, that this quadrennial event may already be priced in, as Bitcoin recently reached an unprecedented all-time high of $73,700 on March 14.

This surge broke the pattern of previous Halvings, where Bitcoin had never surpassed its previous ATH before the event. However, historical data reveals significant price increases in the year following previous Halvings.

Experts Predict Delayed Bitcoin Halving Price Impact

Analysts argue that the compounding impact of reduced issuance takes several months to materialize, suggesting that the Halving itself may not prompt a significant rally before or immediately after the event. 

Deutsche Bank analysts share this sentiment, highlighting that substantial price increases have typically occurred in the run-up to previous Halvings rather than immediately after them.

Another factor to consider is the increased production costs for Bitcoin miners resulting from the Halving. As the mining reward decreases, participating in the mining process becomes less profitable. 

This has historically led to a decline in the hashrate, the total computational power used for Bitcoin mining. JPMorgan analysts predict that production costs could rise to an average of $42,000 after the Halving.

One JPMorgan analyst wrote, “This estimate is also the level we envisage Bitcoin prices drifting towards once Bitcoin-Halving-induced euphoria subsides after April.”

While these factors may influence short-term price movement, historical data reveals that the price of Bitcoin has experienced significant increases in the year following previous Halvings. 

The respective price gains for the three previous halvings were 8,760%, 2,570%, and 594%. However, it’s important to note that each successive halving has a diminishing impact on the new supply of Bitcoin.

Mining Industry Shake-Up

In the mining sector, Halving could lead to significant revenue losses, estimated to be around $10 billion annually. 

According to Fortune, publicly traded miners have taken measures to increase their resilience, diversify their offerings, and optimize their operations. However, mining stocks have faced challenges, with some experiencing significant declines.

While larger miners may undergo a period of adjustment, smaller miners and pools may be pushed offline. This could result in a wider market share for the surviving miners. 

Experts at private asset management firm Bernstein expect the mining industry to consolidate, with “smaller and less efficient players” potentially selling assets to raise capital and shore up their balance sheets. 

The increased market dominance of the surviving miners is expected to be profitable over the long term, especially with the continued structural demand for Bitcoin from ETFs.

Timing The Bitcoin Bull Market Peak

Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital has provided insights into the potential timing of Bitcoin’s bull market peak based on historical Halving cycles and the current acceleration seen in the market. 

According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has traditionally reached its peak in the bull market approximately 518-546 days after the Halving event.

However, the current cycle has shown signs of unprecedented acceleration, with Bitcoin surpassing previous all-time highs roughly 260 days ahead of historical norms. Nonetheless, the recent “pre-Halving retrace” has slowed down the cycle by around 30 days and counting.

Taking into account this accelerated perspective, if Bitcoin’s bull market peak is measured from the moment it breaks its old all-time high, it may occur 266-315 days later. As Bitcoin achieved new all-time highs in March, this suggests a potential bull market peak in December 2024 or February 2025, according to Rekt’s analysis.

Both perspectives carry significance throughout the cycle, especially if the acceleration trend persists. However, prolonged retracements or consolidation periods can slow down the cycle, potentially pushing the anticipated bull market peak further into the future.

Bitcoin Halving

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $64,300, up from the $59,000 mark reached in the early hours of Friday.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin’s Next Move Revealed: Trading Guru Reveals This Cryptic Chart Pattern, Here’s What It Says

Legendary trader Peter Brandt has recently shared notable insights into the potential future trajectory of Bitcoin price, suggesting the possibility of a significant market move for the crypto asset.

This insight comes as Bitcoin appears to be recovering slightly from its week-long decline. The asset is up nearly 5% over the past 24 hours, with a current trading price of $64,968 at the time of writing.

Bitcoin Next Move According To This Chart Pattern

Brandt’s analysis, presented through a series of charts, outlines a distinctive pattern in Bitcoin’s historical price behavior, characterized by three distinct phases.: the Hump-Slump, Bump-Rump, and Pump-Dump cycles.

As per Brandt’s observation, while Bitcoin has completed the initial two phases of the cycle, the third phase, marked by the “pump” component, remains unfulfilled, hinting at potential bullish momentum ahead.

Meanwhile, amid heightened market volatility and uncertainty, Bitcoin has faced notable price fluctuations, experiencing a nearly 10% decline over the past week.

However, recent bullish momentum has seen the cryptocurrency surging by 3.7% in the past 24 hours, with its price briefly climbing above $65,000 after hitting a 24-hour low of $60,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

This upward movement aligns with Brandt’s suggestion of a pending bullish phase in Bitcoin’s price cycle, adding weight to the anticipation of a potential market “pump.”

Insights From Industry Leaders And Analysts

In addition to Brandt’s analysis, industry leaders and analysts have offered their perspectives on Bitcoin’s future trajectory.

Anthony Scaramucci, founder and managing partner of Skybridge Capital, has recently projected a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, forecasting a potential price surge to $200,000 following the upcoming halving event.

Scaramucci cited various factors, including the influence of new financial products like spot ETFs and increasing institutional interest, as key drivers behind Bitcoin’s anticipated price appreciation.

However, amidst optimistic forecasts, CryptoQuant, a prominent crypto analytics platform, has cautioned that Bitcoin could face a significant downturn to $52,000 if its price breaches the critical $60,000 support level.

A CryptoQuant analyst particularly noted:

If the price breaks below $60,000, we might witness a decline to $52,000 before a subsequent rise. However, given the significant dominance of institutional ETFs, I wouldn’t be surprised if they accumulate excess supply from liquidations near the short-term support level of $60,000.

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Crypto Expert Predicts A Narrative Shift Post-Bitcoin Halving

Crypto expert Michaël van de Poppe has provided insights into what to expect when the Bitcoin halving occurs on April 19. As part of his analysis, van de Poppe suggested that the attention might shift from Bitcoin once the event occurs. 

A Narrative Shift To Occur Post-Halving

Van de Poppe mentioned in an X (formerly Twitter) post that narratives will change as the halving event approaches but failed to specify what the new narrative will be when this happens. However, in a previous X post, the crypto expert laid out some of his expectations for the crypto market going forward, which included what he expected the new narrative to be. 

According to Van de Poppe, the narrative will shift to Ethereum (ETH) and projects that are focused on Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) and Real World Assets (RWA). These sectors, along with Artificial Intelligence (AI) and meme coins, have been projected to be among the leading narratives in this bull run. 

Meanwhile, the crypto expert, who has so far continued to state that altcoins are greatly undervalued, expects these crypto tokens to bounce “in their Bitcoin pairs” once the hype around the halving is over. Furthermore, Van de Poppe mentioned that altcoins will show bullish strength from this second quarter until the summer after which a correction will come in the third quarter of the year.

Before now, the crypto expert listed ten altcoins he believes could make the most price gains when the altcoin season begins in full force. These tokens include Chainlink (LINK), Celestia (TIA), Arbitrum (ARB), Polkadot (DOT), Cosmos (ATOM), DYDX (DYDX), WooNetwork (WOO), Sei (SEI), Skale Network (SKL), and Covalent (CQT). 

Expectations For Bitcoin

In the short term, Van de Poppe expects Bitcoin to experience a relief bounce to around $70,000. However, he didn’t sound so bullish about the flagship crypto’s long-term trajectory, predicting that Bitcoin will face a period of consolidation that he doesn’t expect to change in the “coming months.”

In another X post, he said, “It’s a waiting game on Bitcoin currently, as momentum is relatively gone.” He added that he expects Bitcoin to continue “the retracement and consolidation,” while altcoins will bounce up in their BTC pairs during this period. 

This predicted consolidation period looks to be the re-accumulation phase in the stages of Bitcoin halving, which crypto analyst Rekt Capital once referred to. Elaborating on what this period is like, Rekt Capital stated back then that many investors get “shaken out in this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment with lack of major results in their BTC investment in the immediate aftermath of the Halving.”

Once this period is over, Bitcoin is expected to make its “parabolic uptrend,” a phase that Rekt Capital noted historically lasts just over a year. In line with this, it is worth noting that most of Bitcoin’s price gains usually come between six months to a year after the Bitcoin halving has occurred. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin Halving Could Catalyzed $100,000 Price Surge: Bitwise CEO

As the cryptocurrency community excitedly awaits the impending Bitcoin halving, Bitwise Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Hunter Horsley has weighed in on its impact on BTC, predicting that the event could potentially propel prices to $100,000 or even higher.

Horsley expressed his optimistic outlook toward the upcoming Bitcoin Halving on the X (formerly Twitter) platform. Every four years, the Halving has historically been linked to greater price increases, and Horsley’s upbeat view indicates that this cycle might be no different from the others.

Upcoming Bitcoin Halving Is Being Underestimated

According to the CEO, the much-anticipated event is presently being significantly underestimated in the crypto space. He claims that the market has never priced in it in the past, and it will not be priced in this time either, expressing his confidence toward the occasion.

Horsley highlighted the historical relevance and transformative implications of these occurrences, drawing comparisons with past Halvings and citing the notable profits that investors achieved in 2020, 2016, and 2012. He stated that following months of debate by investors on whether the previous three halvings were priced in, Bitcoin grew by 5.4x, 2.8x, and 88x, respectively.

Given the past price developments, the Bitwise CEO anticipates this Halving to serve as a catalyst for the $100,000 target for BTC. Horsley’s prediction seems very reasonable since the figure is just about a 47% increase from the digital asset’s current price.

It is worth noting that the opinions of fully deployed current holders are not used to measure the impact of the Halving. Rather, it depends on whether there will be a significant and sustained increase in demand in addition to the daily decrease in the supply of natural sellers. 

In all, the Bitwise CEO foresees a steady growth in demand along with the conditions for a substantial Halving event this year. As investors prepare for the possible impact of this historic occasion on Bitcoin’s price trajectory, this audacious prognosis highlights the possibility of massive price increases not only in BTC but the entire cryptocurrency market.

BTC Move Into No Man’s Land

With the Halving less than 24 hours away, Cold Blooded Shiller, a cryptocurrency analyst, has reported that Bitcoin has entered No Man’s Land. “There are some interesting discussion points on BTC right now, but we have just entered No Man’s Land,” he stated.

According to Shiller, until one of the two green zones highlighted in his chart is contacted, he believes the price action is far more unpredictable. Nonetheless, there are some interesting links here for former price action and Relative Strength Index (RSI).

The analyst claimed the RSI is currently resetting on the Higher Time Frame (HTF), and the last time it occurred was back in January, following a similar breakdown from consolidation seen now.

While Shiller does not think the results will be the same this time, it’s quite reasonable if no recovery happens due to this degree of loss.

Bitcoin

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Bitcoin Miners Always Sell Into Halvings, Is This Time Any Different?

On-chain data shows Bitcoin miners have always sold as Halvings have occurred. With the next one just around the corner, how are miners behaving this time?

Next Bitcoin Halving Is Less Than Two Days Away Now

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst discussed Bitcoin miners’ behavior in the build-up to the next Halving.

The “Halving” is a periodic event on the Bitcoin network where the cryptocurrency’s block rewards (the compensation miners receive for solving blocks) are permanently slashed in half.

This event occurs approximately every four years, and according to NiceHash’s countdown, the next one will occur in just over 32 hours.

Bitcoin Halving

Bitcoin miners earn revenue from two sources: transaction fees and block rewards. Historically, the former has been quite low on the BTC network, so the miners primarily depend on the latter to pay off their running costs.

Since the block rewards are cut in half during Halvings, these events naturally deal a significant blow to the miner’s revenues. As such, it’s not surprising that the miners have generally shown a reaction to the event in the past cycles.

“One of the common dynamics that occur in every cycle of cutting the issuance of new BTC is the significant selling pressure exerted by miners,” says the quant. One way to gauge the degree of selling pressure coming from these chain validators is via the Miner to Exchange Flow metric.

This indicator tracks the total amount of Bitcoin moving from miner-associated addresses to wallets connected to centralized exchanges. As miners usually deposit Bitcoin to these platforms for selling, this flow can provide hints about their selling behavior.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 30-day moving average (MA) BTC Miner to Exchange Flow over the last few years:

Bitcoin Miner to Exchange Flow

As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day MA Bitcoin Miner to Exchange Flow had surged to high levels in the 2020 Halving event, implying that this group had potentially been participating in a selloff.

This selling push may have come from the miners planning to exit, given the sharp revenue reduction that was set to occur. The graph, though, clearly shows that no such selling pressure has emerged this time around despite the event being just around the corner.

So, what’s going on here? The analyst suggests that the Bitcoin miners may have already completed the latest round of selling in advance (as the exchange inflows from the cohort did spike in February). If this is true, the quant thinks this could benefit the market in the short term.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has continued to move sideways inside a range recently, as its price is still trading around $63,500.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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Bitcoin: Expect The Unexpected – Analyst Sees Unconventional Bull Run Post-Halving

Bitcoin has been moving lower ahead of the Halving event, going against analysts’ expectations. This price action has been unexpected and shows how the coin tends to go against predictions, basically charting its path. 

Bitcoin Breaking The Mold

In light of Bitcoin’s randomness, especially in the past few months following the approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), one analyst expects the coin to continue defying expectations by clocking in a bull run that defies historical trends.

4-year simple moving average for Bitcoin | Source: Analyst on X

The analyst cites two recent instances where Bitcoin defied expectations to justify this bullish outlook. First, following the rapid expansion in the 2020 to 2021 bull run that saw Bitcoin soar from less than $10,000 to fresh all-time highs of around $70,000, prices sharply contracted in 2022. 

Then, the United States Federal Reserve shifted its monetary policy to curb raging inflation by rapidly increasing interest rates. Following this and other market-related events, Bitcoin prices dipped below the all-time high of the previous cycle of $20,000.

By November 2022, prices fell to as low as $15,000, accelerated by the collapse of FTX. This retest of previous highs and fall below $20,000 had never happened before. 

Another anomaly occurred last month. For the first time, Bitcoin prices expanded and broke the previous all-time highs of around $70,000 before the Halving event. As Bitcoin’s past price action shows, prices only rally to fresh all-time highs after Halving.

However, this changed when BTC soared to $73,800, possibly paving the way for bulls to join in and push the coin back to unchartered territory post-Halving. 

Is BTC Ready For A Multi-Year Rally?

With this in mind, the analyst believes Bitcoin will continue uniquely shaping its path, deviating from history. For instance, the analyst thinks BTC will outperform altcoins in the coming months.

The analyst adds that increased regulatory scrutiny following high-profile collapses like FTX and Luna could dampen altcoin enthusiasm. 

The coin will ride on the fact that it is the only one with an ETF from the United States SEC receiving investments. As a result of this capital injection, Bitcoin will likely register a multi-year “up only” phase, just like gold did once its ETF was approved.

Bitcoin price trending sideways on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

Prices remain depressed ahead of this. Though prices are increasing at spot rates, the coin is within a bear formation. Currently, BTC has local resistance at around $65,000.

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Bitcoin Could Drop To $52,000 If Price Breaks Below This Mark – CryptoQuant

Amidst the ongoing fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, the price of Bitcoin has surged by 1.7% in the past 24 hours, hovering above the $62,000 mark.

However, recent warnings from CryptoQuant, a leading crypto analytics platform, suggest that Bitcoin could face a significant downturn to $52,000 if specific key levels are violated.

This cautionary note comes amidst growing uncertainty in the Bitcoin derivatives market, with derivative traders showing unprecedented caution compared to previous halving cycles.

Bitcoin Risky Level

CryptoQuant’s analysis highlights declining open interest and funding rates in the Bitcoin derivatives market, indicating a “cautious” stance among traders, particularly with the arrival of several institutional participants. CryptoQuant analyst Shiven Moodley noted:

At this halving, derivative traders exhibit far more caution than in previous instances. This season witnesses the entry of numerous new institutional players into the market.

According to the analyst, If Bitcoin’s price falls below the critical $60,000 support level, the top cryptocurrency could experience a notable correction to $52,000, signaling a potential short-term bearish trend.

However, the presence of institutional Bitcoin Spot ETFs may mitigate the severity of the decline by absorbing “excess supply from liquidations” around the $60,000 support zone.

Moodley stated:

If the price breaks below $60,000, we might witness a decline to $52,000 before a subsequent rise. However, given the significant dominance of institutional ETFs, I wouldn’t be surprised if they accumulate excess supply from liquidations near the short-term support level of $60,000.

Analysts Sound Alarm On BTC’s Fragile Position

Meanwhile, crypto trader and analyst Ali has further fuelled concerns by identifying a pivotal price level for Bitcoin. Ali’s analysis indicates that if Bitcoin drops to $50,500, over $15 billion in liquidations could occur on the Binance alone.

Such a significant liquidation event could exert immense pressure on the market, potentially leading to further price declines and heightened volatility.

This outlook echoes recent warnings from prominent analyst Crypto Rover, who has also cautioned about a potential liquidation event affecting short holders if Bitcoin climbs back to the crucial price mark of $71,600.

Despite these concerns, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. Crypto analyst Plan B, known for his Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has made bullish predictions for Bitcoin’s future price movements.

According to Plan B, Bitcoin’s upcoming Halving event will serve as a central driver for price increases, with the cryptocurrency expected to surpass $100,000 this year and exceed $300,000 by 2025.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Goldman Sachs On Bitcoin Halving: ‘It doesn’t Matter If It’s A Buy The Rumor, Sell The News Event’

Analysts at Goldman Sachs, a leading global banking and investment management firm, have offered valuable insights into the anticipated effects of the forthcoming Bitcoin halving, on the price of the cryptocurrency. They emphasize that while the Bitcoin halving is a noteworthy event, other major factors will likely exert greater influence on Bitcoin’s future value. 

Bitcoin Halving To Play Lesser Role In BTC’s Outlook

In a note to clients, Goldman Sach’s analysts have cautioned against reading too much into the past Bitcoin halving cycles and their impact on the cryptocurrency. Based on historical trends, the Bitcoin halving cycles tend to have a favorable effect on the value of Bitcoin, often triggering a bull run. 

The bank noted that whether the Bitcoin halving scheduled for April 20, becomes a “buy the rumor, sell the news event,” it would hold less significance for the cryptocurrency’s medium-term outlook.

They argue that the future performance of the pioneer cryptocurrency would be more heavily influenced by the supply and demand dynamics within the current market. Additionally, the analysts highlighted that the growing interest and demand for Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) combined with the self-reflexive nature of the crypto market would be the primary contributing factor to Bitcoin’s price action and future outlook. 

Sharing a similar perspective, analysts at CryptoQuant disclosed earlier in April that the 2024 Bitcoin halving was no longer a primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s bullish surge. They highlighted that factors such as increasing demand from large-scale investors and diminishing supply were now the key drivers of Bitcoin’s upward momentum.  

Analysts Warn Of Macroeconomic Influence On New Halving Cycle

Analysts at Goldman Sachs have predicted that macroeconomic factors such as inflation could have a significant influence on the upcoming Bitcoin halving event. 

“Caution should be taken against extrapolating the past cycles and the impact of halving, given the respective prevailing macro conditions,” Goldman Sachs analysts noted.

Unlike previous halving cycles, the present economic conditions display high inflationary pressures and interest rates, which could cause the 2024 Bitcoin halving cycle to diverge from historical patterns. In other words, the analysts have suggested that for Bitcoin’s historical halving bull runs to occur, macro conditions need to be supportive of investor risk-taking. 

Currently, the United States faces challenges with high inflation, while interest rates stand above 5%. These conditions may exert pressure on Bitcoin’s market dynamics. However, despite the prevailing circumstances, many see the digital currency as a formidable inflation hedge and a beacon of hope against escalating inflationary pressures.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin To $455,000: Expert Echoes Previous Halving Pattern

In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, Marcel Knobloch also known as Collin Brown, a crypto expert has offered an audacious prediction for Bitcoin, foreseeing a significant rally to unprecedented heights post-BTC Halving event scheduled to take happen this month.

Bitcoin Poised For Massive Growth Post-Halving

According to Collin Brown, the fourth mining reward Halving for Bitcoin will take place in the next 48 hours. This event will cut down the current 6.25 BTC per block output to 3.125 BTC per block.

Brown noted that following the last Halving event, Bitcoin witnessed over 700% growth, bringing the crypto asset to its previous all-time high of $69,000 achieved at the peak of the 2021 bull cycle. Given the impact of the previous Halving, the crypto expert has predicted the coin will reach $455,000 should BTC mirror this pattern.

The post read:

In just forty-eight hours, Bitcoin’s fourth mining reward halving will occur. This quadrennial occurrence will slash the per-block emission of BTC to 3.125 BTC from the current 6.25 BTC. After the last halving, Bitcoin prices surged 700%, which would now bring $455,000.

It is worth noting that since the cryptic developer of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, introduced the coin about 15 years ago, the Halving has been ingrained in the crypto’s program. This year’s event will happen when block 840,000 is created, which might increase BTC’s value by reducing supply.

Historically, the three previous halvings have caused the price of the digital asset to soar significantly, amassing substantial gains. Data shared by Brown shows that following the first halving event, Bitcoin saw a whopping 9,360% rise, topping out around $1,135 from $12.

However, it took the crypto asset approximately 371 days to reach the aforementioned figure after the Halving. Furthermore, the second halving, which occurred in 2016, drove Bitcoin’s price from $650 to $19,640, indicating an over 2,920% increase.

Meanwhile, the last instance secured a 700% rally, taking prices from $8,626 to the previous peak of $69,045. Primarily, it took BTC more than 500 days in the preceding two cycles to reach new records.

Considering the past trends, Brown’s forecast appears to be reasonable and possible. Should any of these trends reoccur, the crypto expert’s prediction might manifest in the following year.

BTC On The Downside

Collin Brown remains optimistic despite Bitcoin showing signs of weakness to retest its new all-time high of $73,000. Since reaching its new peak in mid-March, the value of BTC has plummeted by over 10%.

Today, the price of Bitcoin fell sharply, reaching a low of about $60,000 and reaching its lowest level since late February. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $62,916, down more than 10% over the past week. While its trading volume has increased by over 20%, its market cap is slightly down by 0.20% in the last day.

The decline in BTC’s price is considered to be triggered by recent geopolitical tensions or global turmoil. The conflict between Israel and Iran caused major sell-offs among investors, leading to a broader market downturn.

Bitcoin