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Revised Forecast: Bloomberg Analyst Cuts Probability Of Bitcoin Spot ETF Rejection To 5%

Popular Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has lowered the possibility of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) denying the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF to 5%. This latest forecast comes as crypto enthusiasts worldwide anticipate a wide-scale approval of various Bitcoin spot ETF proposals by the SEC on Wednesday, January 10.

Why The Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval Appears Nearly Certain: Bloomberg Analysts Weigh In

In October, Eric Balchunas and fellow Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart predicted that there is a 90% chance that ARK Invest and 21 shares would receive approval for their joint Bitcoin spot ETF bid on January 10, which marked the final deadline date for the SEC’s response on their application.

However, in a recent X post on January 6, Balchunas raised the probability of this greenlight to an astounding 95% after declaring that there was only a 5% probability the SEC would reject the ARK/21 ETF bid in the coming days. 

This new prediction is based on the implausibility of all scenarios, which could represent a possible delay or non-approval of the ARK/ 21 shares Bitcoin spot ETF application. In an earlier X post on January 6, James Seyffart had listed these scenarios starting with ARK/21 shares spontaneously withdrawing their ETF proposal from the SEC, which he claimed to be highly unlikely. 

Another scenario is that the SEC discovers new reasons to reject the launch of a crypto spot ETF, resulting in a drawn-out court battle between the US regulator and ARK/21Shares, a situation that Seyffart believes the SEC would rather avoid, especially following its recent loud legal loss against Grayscale investment.

The final event that the Bloomberg analyst believes could prevent the clearance of the ARK/21 Shares ETF bid is a direct intervention from the US Presidency, another scenario that appears remotely possible.  

The D-Day Approaches

The importance of ARK/21 Shares’ joint bid to the Bitcoin spot ETF saga revolves around its final deadline date for an SEC response, which is the earliest of the bunch. Now, it is believed that the SEC will rather approve several Bitcoin spot ETF applications at once regardless of their respective final deadline date in a similar fashion as it did with Ether-futures ETFs in August. 

This belief is backed by the discussions between the US regulator and various applicants in the last few weeks, leading to amendments in respective proposals, which indicates the preparation of an incoming approval.

At the time of writing, the set date of expectation remains January 10, with crypto enthusiasts highly enthusiastic about the potential bullish effects of a spot ETF on Bitcoin’s price over the year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to trade at $44,050, having gained by 4.50% in the last week.

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Bloomberg Analysts Say Ethereum Futures ETFs Could Start Trading Soon – Here’s When

According to Bloomberg analysts, Ethereum futures ETFs (exchange-traded funds) could start trading for the first time in the United States as early as next week. This comes just a few hours after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed decisions on Ark Invest and VanEck ETH spot ETF applications.

Why Ethereum Futures ETFs Could Launch Next Week 

On September 28, Bloomberg Analyst Eric Balchunas said – via a post on X (formerly Twitter) – he was hearing that the SEC wants to accelerate the launch of Ether futures ETFs. Balchunas stated that the commission wants it “off their plate” before the potential US government shutdown. 

The United States government faces a possible partial shutdown at 12:01 a.m. ET on October 1 if Congress fails to pass spending bills for the coming fiscal year, potentially affecting most government agencies’ non-essential operations.

The Bloomberg analyst claims that, in anticipation of this scenario, various Ethereum futures ETF applicants have been asked to update their documents by Friday afternoon in order to commence trading as early as Tuesday, the 3rd of October. 

James Seyffart, another Bloomberg ETF analyst, responded to Balchunas’ revelation, saying that it appears that “the SEC is gonna let a bunch of Ethereum futures ETFs go next week potentially.” It is worth noting that neither of the analysts divulged their sources for this latest development.

According to an earlier note from the analysts, there are 15 ETH futures ETFs from at least nine issuers awaiting the SEC’s approval. In their analysis, Balchunas and Seyffart put forward a 90% chance of Ethereum futures ETFs launching in early October.

The note read:

Ethereum futures ETFs have a 90% chance of launching in October, we believe, with Valkyrie’s Bitcoin futures ETF (BTF) poised to become the first to hold Ethereum exposure on Oct. 3 after a strategy change. We expect pure Ethereum futures ETFs to start trading the following week thanks to Volatility Shares” actions.

Spot Ethereum ETFs In Limbo?

Before this latest update on ETH futures ETFs emerged, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission had pushed the deadlines for ARK 21Shares and VanEck’s Ether spot ETF applications. In separate filings, the commission stated that it would designate a longer period on whether to take action on a proposed rule change for the listings of these Ethereum spot ETFs.

The SEC said:

The Commission finds it appropriate to designate a longer period within which to take action on the proposed rule change so that it has sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change and the issues raised therein.

The Securities and Exchange Commission also mentioned that it received no public comments on either proposal. Meanwhile, it set December 25 (for VanEck) and December 26 (for ARK 21Shares) as the new deadline for another delay or decision on the Ethereum spot ETFs.

The approval of an ETH spot exchange-traded fund is highly anticipated due to its potential positive impact on the Ethereum price, which has been struggling in the past few weeks. As of this writing, Ether is valued at $1,617, reflecting a 1.6% price jump in the past 24 hours.

Ethereum Futures ETFs