Arthur Hayes Unveils His Playbook For Bitcoin, Crypto And Big Tech

In his latest essay, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has laid out his investment playbook in the current global economic landscape, focusing on the potential of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, big tech, and traditional financial markets.

Dumb Trades

Hayes begins with a blunt critique of traditional investment strategies, particularly the purchase of long-term bonds in the current economic climate. He explicitly states, “The dumbest thing one can do is purchase long-term bonds with a buy-and-hold mentality.”

Hayes explains this viewpoint by highlighting the risks associated with these bonds, especially when liquidity conditions shift, saying, “You will experience a market-to-market gain today, but…the market will start to discount the impact of further Reverse Repo [RRP] balance decreases and long-end bond yields will creep higher, which means prices fall.”

Moving on to smarter investment approaches, Hayes acknowledges leveraging short-term debt, as exemplified by Stan Druckenmiller. Hayes notes that Stan Druckenmiller went mega-long 2-year treasuries. He remarked, “Great trade, brah! Not everyone has the stomach for the best expressions of this trade (hint: it’s crypto). Therefore, if all you can trade are manipulated TradFi assets like government bonds and stocks, then this isn’t a bad option.”

Hayes also argues that a trade “that’s a bit better than the medium-smart trade (but still not the smartest) is to go long on big tech.” Hayes focuses on AI-related companies. He identifies AI as a pivotal future technology, arguing, “Everyone knows that everyone knows that AI is the future. This means anything AI-related will pump, because everyone is buying it too. Tech stocks are long-duration assets and will benefit from cash being trash once more.”

Smart Trades: Bitcoin And Crypto

However, the smartest trade is to go long crypto, which has significantly outperformed other assets relative to the increase in central bank balance sheets. Hayes presented the chart below, comparing the performance of Bitcoin, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Gold against the Fed’s balance sheet since March 2020, highlighting Bitcoin’s exceptional growth.

Bitcoin Nasdaq 100 S&P 500 Gold divided by the Fed’s balance sheet

Hayes identifies Bitcoin as the primary investment target, describing it as “money and only money.” Following Bitcoin, he points to Ether as the commodity powering the Ethereum network. “Ether is the commodity that powers the Ethereum network, which is the best internet computer.”

He categorizes other cryptocurrencies, stating, “Bitcoin and Ether are crypto’s reserve assets. Everything else is a shitcoin.” He further elaborates on alternative layer-one blockchains like Solana, calling them “all overhyped, me-too, pieces of shit that won’t overtake Ethereum in terms of active developers, dApp activity, or Total Value Locked.”

Hayes also discusses decentralized applications (dApps) and their tokens. He finds this sector exciting for its high-return potential, though he acknowledges the risks: “Finally, all manner of dApps and their respective tokens will pump. This is the most fun, because down here is where you get the 10,000x returns. Of course, you’re also more likely to get rugged, but where there is no risk there is no return. I love shitcoins, so don’t ever call me a maxi!”

Geo-Economic Factors

Regarding his investment strategy in the context of current economic fluctuations, Hayes explains his focus on the net of RRP minus Treasury General Account (TGA) to gauge market liquidity, which informs his decisions on T-bill sales and Bitcoin purchases. He emphasizes the importance of adaptability, stating, “I will stay nimble and flexible. The best-laid plans of mice and men have a tendency to falter.”

Hayes also delves into geopolitical considerations, specifically the potential impact of the Hamas v. Israel conflict on oil prices and monetary policy. He notes Bitcoin’s resilience in such scenarios: “Bitcoin has proven to outperform bonds during times of war. […] The long-term US Treasury bond ETF has fallen 12% vs. Bitcoin pumping 52% since the onset of the Ukraine / Russia war.”

While he concedes that Bitcoin could fall in an initial move when Iran is drawn into the Hamas v. Israel war, it would be a “buy the dip” situation according to Hayes.

In a candid conclusion, Hayes comments on the historical context of geopolitical conflicts, expressing skepticism about the prospects for global peace: “Of course, if those in charge of Pax Americana committed themselves to peace and global harmony… nah, I’m not even going to finish that thought. These mofos have been practicing war since 1776, with no signs of letting up.”

According to Hayes, however, all roads lead to Bitcoin: “[It] will reassert itself as a real-time scorecard on the health of the war-time fiat financial system.”

At press time, BTC traded at $37,030.

Bitcoin price

Web2’s Lesson for AI: Decentralize to Protect Humanity

In order to prevent the potentially destructive impact of AI on humanity, we need open-source innovation and collective governance that is possible through blockchain protocols and Web3, rather than the monopoly defaulting structure of Web2, according to Michael Casey, CoinDesk’s chief content officer.

Could The New “China Model” Be The Reason The Country Banned Bitcoin Mining?

What is the new “China Model”? And why would that country ban an industry that made them the ultimate leaders in the most important development in recent times? The world is still scratching its head. There has to be something else to this story. Is it only control that they want? Or does China have a secret plan nobody’s been able to figure out?

We at NewsBTC have been studying the case, looking for clues, reporting on related news. After the ban, when Bitcoin’s hash rate collapsed, we posed Bitcoin Magazine’s Lucas Nuzzi’s theory that it all had to do with the Digital Yuan, China’s CBDC. Then, we found out Chinese entrepreneurs are selling small hydropower stations and wondered if decommissioning them was part of their plan. After that, the shocking reveal that China’s dominance over Bitcoin mining was already waning before the ban raised more questions than answers.

The fine people at Bloomberg might’ve found new clues by tackling a related but different question. In the article titled “The China Model: What the Country’s Tech Crackdown Is Really About,” they pose a theory about the reasons behind their attack on Alibaba and DiDi. Two of China’s giant unicorn tech companies, also world leaders in their respective fields. Bloomberg thinks that, after following Silicon Valley’s footsteps for years, China is trying a new model.

Do they have a case or do China’s motives remain a mystery for us westerners? Keep reading to find out.

What Does The New China Model Consists Of?

The article starts by summarizing what happened when Uber-clone DiDi and “Alibaba’s fintech offshoot, Ant Group Co.” tried to do public in the United States. The Chinese government started actions against both companies. Alibaba’s Jack Ma disappeared from the public eye as a result.  

“Just because you are a highly successful tech company does not mean you are above the CCP,” says Michael Witt, a senior affiliate professor of strategy and international business at Insead in Singapore. “Ant Group and Jack Ma found that out for themselves last year, and it is surprising DiDi did not get the message.”

What does this “China Model” have to do with Bitcoin mining? Well, the Chinese government seems to be cracking down on everything huge and technological that isn’t aligned with their interests. And we in the industry know how much Bitcoin those immense mines were producing.

“China is actually taking the lead in setting some boundaries around the power of Big Tech,” says Thomas Tsao, co-founder of Gobi Partners, a venture capital firm based in Shanghai. “People are missing the bigger picture. They’re trying a new model.”

Is Size the Problem For The Chinese Government?

As we learned when we analyzed the “The Death Of China’s Bitcoin Mining Industry” article, China only banned industrial Bitcoin mining. Individuals can still mine.

“Despite the government’s hardline approach, Ye is determined to carry on: “This industry is extremely volatile. High emotions and stress are involved, but that’s also its appeal. Companies are banned from mining Bitcoin, but individuals aren’t,” Ye said, adding that he plans to turn around his operation by purchasing old equipment and downsizing.”

The Chinese government was only worried about industrial-sized private mining operations. The question is why. What are they planning? 

The Chinese government seems to be playing a similar game when it comes to Big Tech.

Andy Tian, who led Google China’s mobile strategy in the 2000s and is now CEO at Beijing social media startup Asian Innovations Group, says it will be “positive for innovation” and “competition in China will be fiercer than in the U.S.,” because smaller companies will benefit from policies that rein in the largest competitors.

And they’re using the country’s unique characteristics to do this fast and mercilessly.

Angela Zhang, director of Hong Kong University’s Centre for Chinese Law and the author of Chinese Antitrust Exceptionalism, says the intervention will reshape the tech industry in China faster than it could happen elsewhere. “The case against Alibaba took the Chinese antitrust authority only four months to complete, whereas it will take years for U.S. and EU regulators to go after tech firms such as Facebook, Google, and Amazon, who are ready to fight tooth and nail,” she says.

BTC price chart for 08/10/2021 on Coinbase | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
What Does The New China Model Want To Achieve?

This is where Bloomberg’s case falls flat. They have no idea what the Chinese are thinking.

If China is abandoning the Silicon Valley model, what will it replace it with? Insiders suggest it will be less founder-driven and more China-centric.

Why is China dwarfing its biggest industries and players? Is the “China Model” just concerned with scale? Or is control their focus? Are they cracking down on people and companies with too much power that work on a global scale? We wouldn’t know. However, this paragraph’s facts and assumptions could provide a clue.

Xi has called the data its tech industry collects “an essential and strategic resource” and has been pushing to tap into it for years. Following a 2015 mandate, cities from Guiyang to Shanghai have set up data exchanges that facilitate the transfer of anonymized information between corporations. This could lead to a nationalized data-sharing system that serves as a kind of digital public infrastructure, putting a massive trove of data into the central government’s hands.

Is it data they’re after? Does Bitcoin’s pseudo-anonymity scare them? Is their crackdown on Big Tech even related to their crackdown on Bitcoin mining? There’s only one thing we can know for sure: China’s making big coordinated moves when it comes to tech. And they seem to have a plan. A “China Model,” if you will.

Featured Image by Markus Winkler from Pixabay – Charts by TradingView