Category: Cardano Price

After more than five weeks of unrelenting downside pressure, Cardano (ADA) finds itself approaching a potentially decisive juncture. In a new analysis published June 18, crypto analyst Quantum Ascend (@quantum_ascend) offered a fresh take on ADA’s price structure, warning that the final leg of a downward five-wave Elliott pattern may now be unfolding—with a critical resolution point drawing near.

How Low Can Cardano Crash?

“We dropped down into that second wave… and had it highlighted, it bounced from there. So we did call that correctly,” the analyst began, referencing earlier predictions. But despite the brief bounce, he now sees a more extended impulse playing out. “It does look like we’re turning this into more of a five-wave move down. So one, two, three, four, and working on a fifth wave now,” he explained while analyzing the one-day chart of ADA.

At the core of the bearish outlook is Fibonacci confluence. Quantum Ascend pointed out that ADA currently hovers around the 0.702 retracement level, with the 0.786 level lying just beneath it—both key zones often associated with deeper corrections in Elliott Wave theory. “Makes complete sense for us to go ahead and drop in right to this area at the very minimum,” he noted.

Yet despite the grim technicals, the analyst maintains that no structural damage has occurred—at least not yet. “As long as we hold the 51 cent level, nothing’s broken, it’s not a problem, right?” he reassured.

The broader context, however, is less encouraging: “We need Bitcoin to catch a little bit of a bid or Ethereum or something. We need some kind of good news to come in to alleviate a little bit of this because the market’s just pretty much been bleeding… for over a month now.”

ADA has underperformed relative to its peers since early May, with sentiment sliding alongside price. But Quantum Ascend encouraged viewers not to overreact to the current downtrend. “All it is is an opportunity to dollar cost average,” he said, before addressing the exhaustion many long-term holders are feeling. “I know what you’re saying, QA. I’ve been dollar cost averaging for seven months. I get it. I’ve been there.”

Rather than panic-sell or obsess over day-to-day moves, the analyst recommended mental distance and patience. “Go do something fun, it’s beautiful, it’s summer. Go do something else, anything else. But this thing is gonna resolve itself and alt season is around the corner,” he said.

Despite short-term bearishness in the chart, his long-term conviction remains intact. “World War III is not starting. I could not have more conviction in all those things.”

With ADA potentially entering the final leg of a corrective structure and broader markets searching for a catalyst, all eyes are now on whether support zones hold—or if Cardano is headed even lower before the long-awaited resolution finally arrives.

At press time, ADA traded at $0.6158.

Cardano staking pool operator (SPO) Sssebi (@Av_Sebastian) has ignited a debate by asserting that Cardano’s ADA could reach double-digit territory this year. In a thread that began, “These are the ingredients for $10 $ADA in 2025,” he listed five developments he believes will transform the eighth-largest cryptocurrency from a $0.70 token into a $10 asset. Each of those “ingredients” is now taking shape—and each comes with its own uncertainties.

#1 Cardano Becomes Bitcoin’s DeFi Layer

At the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas, Input Output (IO) stunned attendees by moving a live Bitcoin Ordinal across a new BitVM-based bridge to Cardano. IO called the demonstration “a preview of what is to come,” adding that the “Cardinal” protocol aims for full integration so BTC holders can lend, borrow and stake inside Cardano’s extended-UTxO environment. By transplanting Bitcoin liquidity onto a programmable ledger without wrapped custodial tokens, Cardano positions itself as a settlement layer for so-called BTCFi applications—an addressable market that today tops $1 trillion in dormant value.

#2 The Midnight “Glacier Drop” Airdrop

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson told Consensus 2025 in Toronto that Midnight, his privacy-focused sidechain, will airdrop both NIGHT governance tokens and DUST privacy tokens to “approximately 37 million wallets across eight major blockchains”—with “zero allocation to venture capitalists.” “Every Consensus there’s a new token saying, ‘my thing is better,’” he said. “We’re going to give this away and let users decide.” The sheer scale dwarfs recent airdrops and could seed tens of millions of new ADA-capable addresses once Midnight’s cross-chain fee model pushes traffic back to the base chain.

#3 A US Listed Cardano Spot ETF

In February NYSE Arca filed to convert the Grayscale Cardano Trust into a spot ETF. The Securities and Exchange Commission acknowledged the application on 24 February, starting a 240-day clock that now runs to 22 October 2025. The agency’s first-phase deadline of 29 May was pushed to 15 July, following the pattern that preceded January’s Bitcoin ETF approvals.

Grayscale has argued that ADA’s on-chain transparency and staking mechanics make it “substantially resistant to manipulation,” echoing the language that ultimately persuaded regulators on Bitcoin. An approval would give traditional investors a regulated conduit to stake-enabled yield—something no US crypto ETF yet offers.

#4 ADA In The US Strategic Reserve

President Donald Trump’s March executive order created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a US Digital Asset Stockpile to hold crypto seized in federal cases. A subsequent Truth Social post surprised markets by naming “XRP, Solana and Cardano” for inclusion alongside Bitcoin and Ether; ADA jumped more than 70% intraday.

Though the order bars fresh purchases of altcoins, Treasury accounting shows roughly $493 million in non-Bitcoin assets—ADA among them—already earmarked. Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov called the move “a reputational boost, signaling the US. views digital assets as strategic.” Inclusion in a sovereign reserve legitimises ADA for conservative allocators and could ease the path for futures and options listings.

#5 The Ouroboros Leios Upgrade

Hoskinson labels Leios “the capstone of the entire Ouroboros agenda … the fastest cryptocurrency on the planet.” In a May 1 livestream he said simulations show “tens of thousands of transactions per second” without sacrificing decentralization. The upgrade introduces parallel input, ranking and endorsement blocks, allowing throughput to be dialed up as adoption demands. If main-net integration lands in H2 2025, Leios would coincide with Midnight’s launch and the ETF review window—an alignment bulls see as catalytic.

ADA trades near $0.70 today, implying a market capitalization of roughly $25 billion. A jump to $10 would push valuation toward $350 billion, rivaling Ethereum’s 2024 peak.

Cardano (ADA) is hovering at $0.71, but the weekly structure that veteran chartist Maelius (@MaeliusCrypto) published on X suggests that the lull may be only a pause before the next leg higher. The analyst’s chart compresses seven years of ADA/USD history into one pane and shows that – despite a 45 % retracement from the late-2024 peak – the coin has not violated the rising dashed trend-line that has connected every cycle low since the 2020 Covid panic.

Cardano Price Ready For Liftoff?

In fact, the most recent dip stopped inside a long-standing demand band that now stretches from roughly $0.57 to $0.78 and immediately printed a textbook higher low (HL) while never closing a week beneath that dynamic support. Price action is again trading above the 50-week exponential moving average, currently near $0.66, after reclaiming it with two decisive green candles.

Back in March 2024 the same moving average acted as a springboard for a vertical breakout that carried ADA to a higher high (HH) just shy of $1.31 – the top of the dotted, upward-sloping channel that has contained every impulsive rally since 2020. Because the upper channel boundary now lies close to $1.50, Maelius argues that a clean break of the demand zone could unleash enough momentum to retest that ceiling.

Momentum gauges back the thesis but have not yet flashed full confirmation. The weekly relative-strength index sits at 49 and has been squeezing into a falling wedge since the March high; it is carving a sequence of higher lows that mirrors price, yet the down-sloping resistance line – drawn from the HH reading near 82 – still caps any advance. The Wave-Trend Oscillator tells a similar story: it produced a glaring bearish divergence at the 2024 top, bled into oversold territory around −50, and is only now curling upward, with the fast and slow curves on the verge of a bullish cross.

“ADA looks dope, or is just me?! Would like to see RSI breakout w/ decisive move on WTO to get super-confident, but price will be higher when (and if) we get it,” Maelius wrote when he released the chart. In other words, momentum confirmation may lag behind price, as it did in previous cycle accelerations during 2020 and 2023.

From a pure market-structure perspective, ADA remains in an unbroken sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the weekly chart, the prevailing down-trend line from the 2021 record high was breached more than a year ago, and the recent correction resembles nothing more sinister than a throw-back to new support.

As long as weekly candles respect the lower edge of the grey demand block (~$0.57) and the multi-year rising trend-line, the path of least resistance points north – with the next confluence of resistance stacked near $0.81 (the March-2024 swing high) as well as the December 2024 high at $1.31 and the upper channel wall around $1.50.

Should the RSI pierce the 60 level and the Wave-Trend Oscillator confirm with a bullish cross, Maelius contends that the market will already be trading at materially higher prices, validating his conviction that a fresh surge is only a matter of time.

At press time, ADA traded at $0.709.