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Samson Mow On Bitcoin Halving: Brace For Supply Shock, Omega Candle In Sight

Samson Mow, the chief executive at Jan3, recently spoke to Forbes about the latest Bitcoin halving and its potential to catalyze what he refers to as the “Omega candles” – significant price movements that could elevate Bitcoin to the $1 million mark.

According to Mow, halvings ensure a controlled distribution of Bitcoin, maintaining scarcity and value.

The Mechanics Of Halving And Its Market Implications

Samson Mow detailed in the interview with Forbes the mechanics behind Bitcoin halvings—a critical process built into Bitcoin’s framework by its creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.

This mechanism is designed to halve the block rewards given to miners every 210,000 blocks, or approximately every four years, reducing the reward by 50%.

So far, the most recent halving has reduced the reward for mining from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per mined block. However, initially, miners received 50 BTC per block.

Still, due to the halvings, this amount has decreased over time to manage inflation and extend the mining lifecycle of Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million coins. If not for these halvings, the total supply of Bitcoin would have already been mined.

In the same discussion, Mow highlighted the significant impact of newly approved spot-based Bitcoin ETFs, which received SEC approval earlier this year. He believes these ETFs, combined with the reduced block rewards from the halving, could precipitate a “supply shock” in the BTC market.

Mow further speculated on the occurrence of what he calls “Omega candles”—large price movement events in the Bitcoin market.

He noted that even before the recent halving, the daily demand for Bitcoin was significantly outstripping supply, predicting these Omega candles as almost certain events due to their high volatility and substantial price changes.

Mow views these developments as marking the beginning of a new era for Bitcoin, coinciding with its next, or fifth, halving in the coming four years.

Bitcoin Bright Future And Market Performance

Regarding positive sentiment on Bitcoin, Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered also supports this bullish outlook, projecting substantial inflows into BTC akin to those experienced by gold with the advent of gold ETFs.

Kendrick suggests that the maturation of the spot ETF market could channel between $50 and $100 billion into BTC.

However, despite the post-halving price not reaching the anticipated heights, BTC has demonstrated resilience and potential for considerable growth. Meanwhile, analysts remain confident, predicting significant long-term value increases.

For instance, Michael Sullivan’s analysis suggests a possible reach of $245,000 by 2029 if BTC maintains a 30% compound annual growth rate, underlining the optimistic projections shared by several market experts.

This optimism is further supported by recent trends, including a 7.1% increase in Bitcoin’s price over the last week, which indicates a possible recovery on the horizon.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Key Trend Driving Altcoin Market Toward $425 Billion: Analyst

Amid the bullish sentiment around the crypto landscape, the Altcoin overall market cap has displayed positive strength as many investors and traders are throwing capital into several altcoins ahead of the bull cycle. 

Altcoin Market To Rally Toward $425 Billion

Since Bitcoin has surged to a new record high, many cryptocurrency analysts anticipate a surge in the altcoin market cap. Rekt Capital, a cryptocurrency expert and trader, has shared a positive prediction regarding the altcoins market cap with the community on X.

The expert analysis delves into the current state of the market and its potential to surge higher in the coming months. His projections came in light of the altcoin season index showing advancement, which suggests that its season is almost here.

According to the analyst, the market has been “redirected into the blue-circled testing area,” which was caused by rejection from the “red-circled circle zone.” However, the market has rebounded since then, indicating an increased interest from market investors.

Altcoin

Furthermore, Rekt Capital noted that the market has surpassed the “$315 billion red line of resistance.” As a result, the red line resistance level has now been changed to a “new support level.” Due to this, the crypto analyst anticipates a surge to the “light blue circle” at the $425 billion threshold in the upcoming months.

The post read:

The red-circled area rejected the Altcoin Market back into the blue-circled retesting zone. Since then, the Altcoin Market Cap has recovered, broken beyond the red $315bn resistance, and turned recently into new support. Next is the light blue circle, over time.

However, Rekt Capital also asserted in another recent post that the “$315 billion mark is still being retested by alts market cap new support.” It has been unable to move past it despite today’s double-digit declines on several altcoins.

Even though the market is still retesting the aforementioned level, Rekt Capital is confident that it will “revisit the $425 billion resistance” soon. He anticipates the market revisiting the level before the Bitcoin Halving event, expected to take place in April.

Alts Gains Are Sustable And Likely To Crash

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Bitcoin technology firm JAN3, Samson Mow, has also shared his insights regarding the altcoin market. Despite anticipating a rise in the altcoin market, Mow highlighted that he expects alts to “crash in the upcoming weeks.” 

According to Mow, alts have been monitoring the “increase in Bitcoin” after launching BTC Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). However, altcoins do not possess “the $500 million to $1 billion” daily inflows seen with Bitcoin.

Consequently, this should be the “major sign” that their gains “can not” be maintained. “MSTR has a $30 billion market cap, Solana is $73 billion. That is absurd. A correction is overdue,” he added.

Altcoin

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BitMEX Co-Founder Bitcoin Forecast: BTC To Reach $1 Million Amid Banking Turmoil

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and a well-known figure in the crypto community, has made headlines with a bold prediction for Bitcoin (BTC).

Hayes, recognized for his unique views of the crypto space, shared his thoughts on Bitcoin’s potential trajectory in light of the current financial challenges the New York Community Bank (NYCB) faces.

NYCB, grappling with significant financial troubles, was reported by Bloomberg as having its credit rating downgraded to “junk” by Moody’s.

Hayes interprets the bank’s struggle and the broader banking sector’s difficulties as indicators of systemic issues in traditional banking. He posits that these challenges could lead to greater reliance on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

The Road To $1 Million: A Bitcoin Rally Postulated

Hayes’s perspective is shaped by the view that the conventional banking model is facing sustainability issues. He argues that to address these challenges, the US Federal Reserve could print more money, leading to a deeper financial crisis.

In such a scenario, Hayes believes Bitcoin is a viable alternative, offering a degree of insulation from traditional banking sector problems. This outlook is not new to Hayes, who has consistently advocated for Bitcoin as a hedge against the instability of traditional financial systems.

Delving deeper into his prediction, Arthur Hayes envisions a scenario where Bitcoin could soar to $1 million. This prediction is not unique to Hayes, as other prominent crypto figures, including Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, share similar views.

Mow has even recently expressed confidence that Bitcoin could rapidly ascend to $1 million, potentially within days or weeks. However, he acknowledges that the exact starting point for this surge is yet to be determined.

Hayes’s recent commentary aligns with his previous analyses. In a Medium post, the BitMEX Co-Founder drew parallels between Bitcoin’s performance during the March 2023 banking crisis and its potential future trajectory.

Hayes suggested that similar to the 40% increase experienced during the previous banking crisis, Bitcoin could witness a significant rally following the current challenges.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Halving Events: Catalysts For Bitcoin’s Value Surge

The conversation around Bitcoin’s potential price surge is linked to its halving events. Occurring approximately every four years, these events halve the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks, reducing the rate at which new BTCs are created.

The next Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April this year, will decrease the daily production of Bitcoin from 900 to 450 coins. Historically, these supply reductions have led to significant price movements in Bitcoin’s value, lending credence to predictions of substantial future price increases.

While enthusiasts like Hayes and Mow are bullish about Bitcoin’s prospects of $1 million, there are voices of caution in the crypto community. Tuur Demeester, another Bitcoin evangelist, has recently expressed skepticism regarding Bitcoin’s ability to reach the $1 million mark by 2028, the next Bitcoin halving after this year.

In response to a graph shared by investor Fred Krueger, which projected Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2028, Demeester acknowledged the unpredictable nature of markets and their potential to defy even well-constructed models.

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Expert Reveals Key Macro Indicators For Bitcoin: A Roadmap To Next Rally?

Bitcoin advocate and CEO of Jan3, Samson Mow, has pinpointed a range of macroeconomic indicators that could signal an impending rally for Bitcoin. Mow focuses on exchange-traded inflows (ETF), Bitcoin’s Hashrate, and whale activity on prominent exchanges like Bitfinex.

The Jan3 CEO also mentioned the 200-week moving average (WMA) in forecasting Bitcoin’s trajectory. The recent data shared by Cypherpunk on X highlighting significant whale accumulation on Bitfinex further supports Mow’s Bitfinex whale indicator, suggesting an increased interest from large-scale investors in the flagship crypto.

Broader Economic Indicators

Mow also looks beyond the crypto-specific data, considering global economic factors like Tether’s USDT Assets Under Management, government debt payments, and Debt-to-GDP ratios. The Bitcoin advocate believes these factors, along with nation-state adoption of Bitcoin, real inflation rates, and M3 money supply, could profoundly impact Bitcoin’s performance.

Notably, Samson Mow has remained steadfast in his ambitious prediction for BTC, maintaining a $1 million price target for the crypto. Mow recently cautioned about the potential ‘max pain‘ accompanying a rapid ascent of Bitcoin to this monumental valuation.

Furthermore, Mow has recently suggested that this significant price milestone could materialize relatively quickly, possibly within days or weeks. However, according to the Jan3 CEO, the starting point for this potential surge is “TBD” (to be disclosed).

Bitcoin Latest Trajectory And Prediction

Despite a recent dip below $39,000 last week, BTC has shown a slight increase, with an uptick bringing its price above $42,000. This recovery, though slight, aligns with the optimistic predictions of various analysts and experts, including Samson Mow.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

SkyBridge Capital’s founder, Anthony Scaramucci, has also joined the chorus with an optimistic prediction for Bitcoin. Scaramucci’s analysis suggests a potential 300% increase in Bitcoin’s value post-halving, with a long-term price target of $400,000.

His estimates, based on historical data and market trends, indicate that the peak bullish period for BTC could be about 18 months after the halving event. These predictions are further supported by the recent developments in Bitcoin ETFs, including the filing of the first-ever Bitcoin spot ETF in Hong Kong, indicating a growing institutional interest in BTC.

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Expert Calms Mt. Gox Bitcoin Liquidation Worries, Says “Creditors Aren’t Likely To Sell Soon”

The ongoing saga of the Mt. Gox exchange casts a shadow over the Bitcoin community, even years after its dramatic collapse. Recent developments have stirred the pot again, with Mt. Gox reaching out to former users to confirm ownership of accounts linked to Bitcoin payments.

This move comes amid ongoing efforts to compensate creditors, primarily in Japanese yen, through their PayPal accounts. With the repayment process expected to continue this year, the crypto community remains on edge regarding the implications of releasing Mt. Gox’s substantial Bitcoin holdings, amounting to 142,000 BTC and 143,000 BCH, in addition to 69 billion yen.

Expert Optimistic Take On Gox Coin Release

Amid the swirling rumors and speculation, renowned Bitcoin advocate and CEO of Jan3, Samson Mow, has stepped forward to offer his perspective, seeking to alleviate concerns regarding the potential market impact of unlocking “Gox coins.”

Mow believes creditors’ long wait has cultivated resilience to prevent a sudden, mass sell-off of these assets. According to Mow, even if some creditors decide to sell, the market is well-equipped to “absorb” the impact without significant disruption.

This view was echoed in response to a user named Spoonman on X, who suggested that around half of the creditors might be inclined to sell. Mow confidently stated that such selling would not co-occur, reinforcing his belief that the market can handle the situation smoothly.

Bitcoin Unexpected Reversal

Interestingly, the Bitcoin market has recently shown signs of recovery, defying some analysts’ expectations of a continued downturn. At present, Bitcoin is experiencing a 3% increase over the past 24 hours, with its trading price hovering above $40,000

However, it’s important to note that this uptick follows a significant decline, with Bitcoin down by 5.7% over the past week and over 10% in recent weeks.

This modest recovery contradicts the bearish forecast presented by Bitfinex in their latest Alpha Report, which anticipated further market downturns. Bitfinex analysts pointed out the vulnerability of Bitcoin’s price due to the reduced profitability of short-term holders.

According to the analyst, this group of investors’ potential reaction to the market conditions could lead to critical support levels being tested at around “$38,000 and $36,000,” as per the report.

However, contrary to prediction, Bitcoin has surged slightly far away from these highlighted support zones. For context, the asset currently trades for $40,037 at the time of writing.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView