Is Hyperinflation Inevitable? Jack Dorsey Says It’ll “Change Everything”

When Square’s boss Jack Dorsey talks about hyperinflation, the world listens. And Twitter reacts. Since so-called developed economies are now feeling the pain that inflation brings, the concept is in everyone’s mind. Every human has a front-row seat to witness the consequences of the United State’s relentless money printing. And, since the Dollar is still the reserve currency of the world,  they’re all feeling it too.

Related Reading | Bullish For Bitcoin: US Inflation Expectation Breaks Out From Decade Long Downtrend

This is Jack Dorsey’s tweet:

Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It’s happening.

— jack⚡️ (@jack) October 23, 2021

As you can see, he doesn’t merely talk about inflation. He goes for “hyperinflation,” which caused adverse reactions in the replies and the quoted tweets. They accused him of fear-mongering and quoted official numbers at him. And the nay-sayers probably have a point here, because the US is far removed from the reality that word implies. However, one thing’s for sure: money printer goes brrrrrrrr… and it hasn’t stopped working since Covid hit.

Negative And Moderate Reactions To Jack Dorsey‘s Tweet

This is an example of an unnecessarily insulting response from a traditional finance person. 

2/ step back and it’s disturbing that a lot of most powerful financial figures/oligarchs are invested, literally and figuratively, in various huckster schemes and libertarianish fantasies of state and civilizations collapse.

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) October 23, 2021

This man has obviously not done his homework regarding Bitcoin, so his argument is invalid. And doesn’t require a response. Plus, he’s being insulting to get attention, which he got. So, good for him and his dopamine levels. Let’s hope he has fun staying poor.

This is a Venezuelan economist with a moderate answer to Jack Dorsey.

I don't think it will. But it doesn't need to happen for things to get ugly. https://t.co/Cj85mJ8o7x

— Eduardo Gavotti (@EduardoGavotti) October 23, 2021

Since Venezuelans have first-hand experience with hyperinflation, let’s take what he says into account. The US is just feeling what inflation does. So-called developing economies live with that concept on their backs every second of every day.

BTC price chart for 10/23/2021 on Bitstamp | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
Informative Reactions To Jack Dorsey’s Tweet

The Human Rights Foundation’s Alex Gladstein, a notorious Bitcoin maximalist, had this to say to Jack Dorsey.

Those shocked by this tweet live in a bubble of financial privilege.

*1.3 billion* live under double, triple, or quadruple-digit inflation: Turkey, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Iran, Lebanon, Venezuela, Cuba, Sudan, and beyond.

It’s already one of the world’s biggest humanitarian crises. https://t.co/P83opDagdu

— Alex Gladstein 🌋 ⚡ (@gladstein) October 23, 2021

He’s not lying. Hyperinflation is “already one of the world’s biggest humanitarian crises.” However, the US is far away from “Turkey, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Iran, Lebanon, Venezuela, Cuba”, and Sudan’s situation. And, since the Dollar is still the reserve currency of the world, they have a comfortable cushion to resist the constant money printing’s effects.

Serial entrepreneur and former Coinbase CTO, Balaji Srinivasan, answered Jack Dorsey with a fully-fledged idea. A “censorship-resistant inflation index.”

I wrote a spec for a censorship-resistant inflation index. It’s framed for a startup, but Square could easily do this. In a crisis, accurate inflation info would be something people checked Twitter for every day. @milessuter @moneyball @jack https://t.co/SYb2mfxjex

— Balaji Srinivasan (@balajis) October 23, 2021

In the project, he brings forth some hard truths:

“If inflation is a government-caused problem, we can’t necessarily rely on government statistics like the CPI to diagnose it or remediate it. Indeed, in places with high inflation, censorship and denial is the rule rather than the exception.”

If you are technically capable, there’s still time to send your proposal and earn “A $100k Prize for a Decentralized Inflation Dashboard.” Be aware that “if you use Chainlink’s oracle tech in your project, the best dashboard will be eligible to receive a $100k grant in LINK tokens.” Those tokens are in addition to the main prize.

Poor Understanding Of The Terminology

In a Twitter Spaces room specifically dedicated to Jack Dorsey’s tweet, notorious podcaster Preston Pysh concluded.

“I think people’s understanding of the terminology, deflation, inflation, is just grossly misunderstood. And so, when you say we’re going to have these deflationary events that are then going to lead to more QE, which is then going to result in more inflationary events. I completely agree with you, but we’re talking that there’s so much information loss in such a simple word as deflation and inflation. So the deflationary event is that this whole system is constructed as credit.”

When he says QE, Preston refers to Quantitative Easing, which Investopedia defines as:

 “A form of unconventional monetary policy in which a central bank purchases longer-term securities from the open market in order to increase the money supply and encourage lending and investment. Buying these securities adds new money to the economy, and also serves to lower interest rates by bidding up fixed-income securities.”

Related Reading | Jack Dorsey Plans to Build A Decentralized Exchange For Bitcoin

That being said, Preston asks:

“How many people in the US, or in the world, have that context when that’s not their expertise, right? They didn’t get a major in macroeconomics, or finance, or whatever. So, it’s just all buzzwords that people throw around. And, in the meantime, no one really even understands what those definitions even represent.”

For more information about inflation, check out the Bitcoinist Book Club analysis of Saifedean Ammous’ “The Bitcoin Standard.”

Featured Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay – Charts by TradingView

Is Evergrande Defaulting? Is This The Reason For China’s War Against Bitcoin?

The biggest property developer in China, Evergrande, seems to be on the verge of collapse. They apparently owe $300B. Is bankruptcy on the table? There’s a better question, though. Is Evergrande the only company in the sector with these kinds of debts? Or is Evergrande just a symptom of a widespread disease? Also, how does this relate to Bitcoin? Do we present a valid case in the following article? Is this “China’s Lehman moment,” as the pseudonymous Bitcoin analyst suggests?

Related Reading | New To Bitcoin? Learn To Trade Crypto With The NewsBTC Trading Course

What we know for sure is that “China’s major banks have been notified by the housing authority that Evergrande Group won’t be able to pay loan interest due Sept. 20,“ according to Reuters. Plan B’s comment sets the tone, and the video shows the intensity of the situation:

China's Lehman moment. The money printing will be massive, I repeat MASSIVE! This is good for #bitcoin https://t.co/lAdSMhnk3L

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) September 15, 2021

Check yesterday’s date. Well, on September 15th, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. Let’s quote Investopedia for a quick recapitulation.

“At the time of its collapse, Lehman was the fourth-largest investment bank in the United States with 25,000 employees worldwide. It had $639 billion in assets and $613 billion in liabilities. The bank became a symbol of the excesses of the 2007-08 Financial Crisis, engulfed by the subprime meltdown that swept through financial markets and cost an estimated $10 trillion in lost economic output.”

Is China living through a similar situation right this minute?

How Did China Evergrande Get Here?

A few days ago, on September 13th, the South China Morning Post seemed cautiously optimistic about the situation. They explained the root of the issue:  

“Reports about missed payments to contractors, attempts to reschedule payments on wealth management products, and failure to sell assets have prompted Chinese regulators and the central bank to intervene to prevent a shock to the financial system.”

At the time, the big news was that they hired “Houlihan Lokey and Hong Kong-based investment bank Admiralty Harbour Capital to assess its capital structure, evaluate the liquidity and explore ways to ease its current liquidity crunch.” And you know what that meant:

“Hiring such financial advisers means Evergrande has come to a serious stage of listing what it owns, what it owes and what are the best plans” to extricate itself, said Lung Siu-fung, an analyst with CCB International. 

The writing was on the wall.

Evergrande price chart on HKEX | Source: 3333 on TradingView.com
Where Are We Now? Is China Really In Trouble?

Apparently, China Evergrande was caught in a loop. The company was pre-selling apartments and using that money to fund other projects, in which they also pre-sold the apartments and the cycle started again. Evergrande bonds are suspended, and there’s a chance they won’t be active ever again. They might be worthless. The stock is near its all-time low, it has lost nearly 80% of its value this year.

Completing the story, CNBC informs:

“The company warned investors twice in as many weeks that it could default. On Tuesday, Evergrande said it’s at risk of a cross default, which means such risks could spill into other related sectors.

Evergrande said Tuesday its property sales would continue to deteriorate significantly this month, adding to its severe cash flow problems.”

Is there a possibility that Evergrande’s problems are the symptom of a widespread disease? That’s the $1M question. Is China’s real state sector really in trouble? For that answer, we have to go to ZeroHedge’s report:

“Country Garden, the nation’s largest developer by sales, plunged 16% in the past two days, while Gemdale slumped 12% as a  gauge of property shares in Shanghai tumbled almost 5% in the period, with valuations firmly below book value. Following the news, Guangzhou R&F Properties drops 10.8% to the lowest since Dec. 2008 while Greentown China -9.1%. At this point, one can safely call it a crisis.”

How Does Evergrande Relate To Bitcoin?

China’s Bitcoin policy doesn’t make sense. Regulating themselves out of the leadership position in the most important industry of our times is beyond comprehension. There has to be something else going on. We at NewsBTC have been on the case. We explored the Digital Yuan CBDC angle. We looked at ads selling small hydropower stations. We discovered China’s dominance over the Bitcoin hashrate was waning before the ban. And we detailed the so-called new “China Model.” 

The guaranteed outcome of fractional reserve banking: Impairment of promises. It's just a matter of when and at what magnitude. The impairment of credit will cascade to other balance sheets unless central planners debase the currency via QE, UBI, and/or debt forgiveness. BRRRRR

— Preston Pysh (@PrestonPysh) September 15, 2021

Under Plan B’s original tweet, two comments attract attention. Investor and podcaster Preston Pysh feels that the situation is “The guaranteed outcome of fractional reserve banking: Impairment of promises. It’s just a matter of when and at what magnitude.” And the person behind Documenting Bitcoin goes conspiratorial and says, “They knew this was coming. Perhaps this is why they “banned” bitcoin.” That, as you might imagine, opens a huge can of worms.

Related Reading | Since China’s Mining Ban, Bitcoin Hashrate Has Recovered by 68% And Counting

Full of confidence, Plan B responds, “Yes, and they closed the exits, typical they always do that.” Bad for the people in China but, in general, bullish for Bitcoin. To recap: the government saw this coming from a distance. They knew the crisis was going to repeatedly hit the country and banned Bitcoin mining to scare the population into not buying the hardest asset ever created. Bitcoin, the true hedge against the collapse of every economy. In any case, the Chinese government will probably try to print its way out of this one. And somehow it’s going to use this crisis to unveil their Digital Yuan CBDC.

Does the theory sound coherent to you? Or is there even more to this story?

Featured Image by Li Yang on Unsplash – Charts by TradingView