Posted on

Toncoin Walks A Tightrope At $2.80 As Market Tension Builds – What Next?

In a recent post on X, Michael Steinbach highlighted that Toncoin’s current price is at $2.80, which he considers one of the most exciting levels of the year. With momentum building, Steinbach noted that traders everywhere are now asking the same question: Is a breakout finally underway, or is a sharp sell-off just around the corner?

Toncoin Locked In A Narrow Range Between $2.70 And $2.80

Analyzing the daily chart, Michael Steinbach points out that Toncoin has been locked in a tight range between $2.70 as support and $2.80 as resistance for several weeks now. He warns that jumping into the market without a clear plan is a recipe for losses, especially when others are already navigating these well-defined zones with precision.

He highlights the RSI sitting at 39, a relatively weak position. While it’s not yet in oversold territory, Steinbach notes that buyers may be holding off for deeper levels. Back in April, a strong rebound occurred from below 30, making the 30–32 zone a critical area to watch for potential bullish reactions.

In terms of risk, Steinbach warns that a break below the $2.70 support could hand control over to the bears. If that level fails, the next downside targets to watch are $2.50 and, in a worst-case scenario, $2.00. He reminds traders that repeated tests of a support zone tend to weaken it over time, and when it finally cracks, the fallout can come fast.

Whether watching for a breakout or a breakdown, having a plan is essential. Reacting after the crowd moves rarely pays off; it’s the calm, pre-planned decisions that give traders the edge when volatility strikes.

Breakout Or Pullback? Define The Setup Before Entering

In outlining the bullish scenario, the analyst noted that if Toncoin manages to secure a daily close above the $2.80 resistance, momentum could quickly follow through. This breakout could open the path toward $3.00, with an extended target near $3.40, representing a potential 26% gain from current levels. That’s the kind of upside savvy traders prepare for.

So, what’s the key takeaway? According to the analyst, successful trading doesn’t rely on gut feeling; it requires well-defined triggers. That means either entering on a confirmed breakout above $2.80 with a stop-loss just below, or stepping back and waiting for a pullback that aligns with RSI signals. The focus should always be on minimizing risk while allowing profits room to grow.

As for now, the analyst sees the trend as sideways to slightly bearish. Until the chart sends a crystal-clear signal, the best approach is patience — no FOMO trades, no blind bets, just disciplined setups.

Toncoin

Posted on

TON Holds The Line: Consolidation Break Could Trigger Fresh Momentum

Toncoin (TON) has been quietly building strength, defending the $2.80–$2.95 support zone with remarkable consistency. After weeks of consolidation, the recent break above a falling trendline has caught traders’ attention, hinting at a possible shift in momentum. As TON coils just above this key structure, the stage may be set for a breakout — one that could ignite fresh upside if bullish pressure continues to build.

Buyers Defend Key Levels On The Chart

In a recent post on X, Alts King pointed out that TON is showing notable strength as it continues to hold above the $2.80–$2.95 support zone. This range has acted as a reliable floor for several weeks, with buyers consistently stepping in to defend it. 

Furthermore, Alts King further observed that a falling trendline, which has long constrained TON’s price action, has now been broken. This technical breakout could mark the early stages of a trend reversal, opening the door for a more sustained bullish move. 

Toncoin

Looking forward, Alts King believes that if the support zone continues to hold firm, TON may be setting up for a potential rally toward the $6.87 level. To validate this bullish thesis, Alts King recommends watching for the formation of higher highs and higher lows on shorter timeframes. These structural patterns are key indicators of healthy upward movement and would confirm growing confidence among market participants as TON tries to shift out of its consolidation phase.

Resistance Zones That May Test TON Momentum To $6.87

As TON begins to show signs of renewed strength, its path toward the $6.87 target isn’t without resistance. One of the first major hurdles lies around $3.04, a support level turned into resistance during the last sell-off. Price action near this range has already shown hesitation in the past, making it a critical level for bulls to reclaim convincingly.

Above that, the $4.54 level could serve as the next challenge. This zone aligns with prior swing highs and consolidations seen on the daily chart, where TON was previously rejected before resuming downward movement. Breaking through this level would require strong volume and confirmation, especially as traders may look to take profits from lower entries near the $2.80 support base.

TON

Finally, before TON can reach the anticipated $6.87 resistance, it must clear the psychological barrier around $6.00, which also coincides with a rounded top structure observed during a prior rally. This level may attract selling pressure from short-term traders aiming to lock in gains. However, only with sustained bullish momentum and the formation of higher highs can TON overcome these layers of resistance and build a real case for a breakout beyond $6.87.

TON

Posted on

Toncoin Heading Toward 40% Breakout, Pattern Could Suggest

An analyst has pointed out how Toncoin (TON) is currently trading inside a Triangle pattern that could potentially set the stage up for a 40% move.

Toncoin Has Been Stuck Inside A Triangle On The Daily Timeframe

In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a pattern that Toncoin has recently been moving inside. The pattern in question is a Triangle from technical analysis (TA), which forms when an asset’s price observes consolidation between two converging trendlines.

The upper line of the pattern is likely to be a source of resistance in the future, while the lower one is that of support. A breakout of either of these lines can imply a continuation of the trend in that direction.

There are a few different types of Triangles in TA. Three popular ones include the Ascending, Descending, and Symmetrical variations. The orientation of the trendlines relative to each other defines which type a particular triangular channel falls under.

In an Ascending Triangle, the upper trendline is parallel to the time-axis. This means that as the price travels inside the pattern, its consolidation shrinks toward a net upside. The Descending Triangle involves just the opposite case; the upper line is sloped downward while the lower one is flat.

The third variation, the Symmetrical Triangle, has its trendlines at a roughly equal and opposite slope. In this pattern, the price’s range tightens to a point in a sideways manner.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the Triangle pattern that Toncoin has seemingly been trapped within during the past few months:

Toncoin Triangle

From the graph, it’s visible that the Triangle that the 1-day price of Toncoin has been following looks similar to a Symmetrical Triangle, but it’s not a perfect one; there is a slight bias to the downside.

The cryptocurrency most recently found support at the lower line and has since climbed toward the midway point between the trendlines. The coin’s price is now not too far from the apex of the pattern.

Generally, breakouts become more likely as consolidation becomes tighter, so it’s possible that TON may be approaching one. According to the analyst, a breakout, if it happens, could potentially end up leading to a 40% move for Toncoin.

As for which direction a breakout might take the asset in, Symmetrical Triangles usually have both sides at equal probability. Since the Triangle in the current case is slightly angled down, however, an exit below the lower line may be a bit more likely.

It now remains to be seen how Toncoin’s price will develop in the coming days and if the pattern will play any role.

TON Price

At the time of writing, Toncoin is trading around $3.3, up over 2% in the last seven days.

Toncoin Price Chart

Posted on

TON Bullish Pattern Signals Breakout Ahead — 40% Rally Loading?

Toncoin (TON), the native token of The Open Network (TON), has climbed over 5% in the past 24 hours, signaling renewed market demand. This rebound comes on the heels of a broader market downturn that saw TON decline alongside other major cryptocurrencies late last week. Amidst these small-scale movements, crypto analyst Ali Martinez notes the altcoin appears to be preparing for a major price breakout.

Toncoin Charts 40% Move As Triangle Hints At Breakout

In an X post on May 31, Ali Martinez shares an insightful take on the TON market. Using the 4-hour trading chart, the expert analyst highlights that TON’s price movement over the past four months has created a symmetrical triangle pattern hinting at the strong potential of a major price breakout.

The symmetrical triangle is a neutral chart pattern that reflects price compression due to the formation of higher lows and lower highs. Inherently, this chart pattern suggests neither the buyers or sellers are in affirmative control of the market, indicating there is much potential for a 40% price swing on either side.

TON

Currently, Toncoin trades around $3.16 following the recent price bounce. If market bulls force  a breakout from the upper boundary around $3.28, the altcoin is expected to trade as high as $4.55-$4.65. Meanwhile, a breakdown at the lower boundary around $3.10 could result in a market price between $1.80-$1.90.

Interestingly, TON’s relative strength index currently sits at 49.37 facing the upward direction which also suggests a neutral market while noting that bullish momentum is starting to build. A cross over 50 would provide bulls confirmation as TON makes its way to the overbought zone.

TON Market Overview

As earlier stated, TON continues to trade at $3.16 reflecting market gains of 5.12% and 4.62% in the past one and seven days, respectively. Telegram LLC which served as initial developers of TON and offers a deep integration with the cryptocurrency project has registered a series of positive developments contributing to these recent price leaps.

Most notably, Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced the platform’s partnership with xAI which would grant users in-app access to Grok, the prominent generative AI model. As part of this one year partnership, Telegram is to receive $300 million in cash and equity investment as well as earn 50% of all xAI revenue generated via the messaging platform.

With a market cap of $7.79 billion, Toncoin ranks as the ninth largest cryptocurrency in the world despite a year-on-year loss of 49.98%. 

TON

Posted on

Toncoin Open Interest Spikes 33%—Will History Repeat With A Pullback?

Data shows the Toncoin (TON) Open Interest has registered a spike in the past day. Here’s what could happen next, according to historical trends.

Toncoin Open Interest Has Hit Its Highest Since February

In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Open Interest for Toncoin. The “Open Interest” here refers to a metric that keeps track of the total amount of perpetual futures positions related to TON (in USD) that are currently open on all derivatives platforms.

When the value of this metric rises, it means the investors are opening up more positions related to the asset on the market. Generally, the total leverage in the sector goes up when new positions appear, so this kind of trend can lead to higher volatility for the cryptocurrency’s price.

On the other hand, the indicator going down suggests that investors are closing their own positions voluntarily or being forcibly liquidated by their exchange. Either way, the asset can behave in a more stable manner following such a trend due to the drop in leverage.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the Toncoin Open Interest over the last few months:

Toncoin Open Interest

As displayed in the above graph, the Toncoin Open Interest has just seen a very sharp spike, a sign that traders have opened up a large number of futures positions. More specifically, the metric’s value has gone up from $143 million to $190 million over the last 24 hours.

From the chart, it’s visible that this quick 33% jump initially came as the coin’s price witnessed a rapid increase, but interestingly, it maintained its upward trajectory even as the asset saw a pullback.

“Past spikes like this have often preceded corrections – worth watching closely,” notes Glassnode. The last time the Toncoin Open Interest formed this pattern was at the end of March/start of April. What followed back then was a price drawdown of about 32%.

TON isn’t the only digital asset that has seen an uptick in speculation recently. As the analytics firm has pointed out in its latest weekly report, Bitcoin has also been observing a major rise in its Open Interest.

Bitcoin Open Interest

As is visible in the chart, the Bitcoin Open Interest fell to a low of $36.8 billion in April as the cryptocurrency’s price itself went down. Since then, however, the indicator has shot up by 51% alongside the bull rally, reaching the $55.6 billion mark. The report explains that this suggests “a build up of leverage is underway.”

TON Price

At the time of writing, Toncoin is trading around $3.34, up more than 11% in the last 24 hours.

Toncoin Price Chart

Posted on

Toncoin Eyes Notable Uptrend After Breaking Above This Key Chart Pattern

Toncoin (TON) is starting to make waves again, showing signs of renewed strength after successfully breaking out of a long-standing descending channel on the daily chart. This breakout marks a pivotal moment for the token, potentially signaling the end of the recent downtrend and hinting at the early stages of a fresh uptrend.

As the crypto market shows signs of renewed vigor, Toncoin appears to be positioning itself as one of the standout performers of this emerging cycle. Whether this breakout marks the beginning of a sustained uptrend or faces temporary headwinds will depend on both technical follow-through and broader market sentiment.

A Potential Uptrend In The Making

According to Profit Demon in a recent post on X, Toncoin is demonstrating significant strength by staying above the descending channel on its daily chart. This technical formation is crucial as it signals a shift in market dynamics after a period of weakness and decline.

Profit Demon noted that TON had previously faced a sharp correction. However, the latest price action indicates a recovery, with Toncoin finding solid support at a key level. This level now serves as a critical foundation, offering the potential for a new upward move.

Toncoin

He further emphasized that if the bullish momentum continues to grow, TON could target several key resistance levels. With the current market sentiment favoring a recovery, Toncoin’s price may rise toward the $4.10 level. A successful breakout above this mark would solidify the bullish trend, propelling it to the $4.90 and $5.60 marks.

Can Toncoin Sustain Current Trends and Trigger A Rally?

For TON to sustain its rally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) plays a key role. The RSI should stay within the optimal range of 40 to 70, avoiding overbought conditions above 70. If the RSI remains above 50 and outside overbought territory, Toncoin will have room for further appreciation. A breakout above key resistance levels while keeping the RSI in this range would strengthen the bullish case.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is another critical indicator to monitor. Currently, the MACD has shown signs of bullish divergence, suggesting that momentum is shifting in favor of the bulls. For the rally to continue, the MACD line should remain above the signal line, confirming that buying pressure outweighs selling pressure. 

Lastly, volume analysis is essential in confirming the strength of the price movement. A rally supported by increasing volume signals that the trend is backed by real demand and a temporary spike. To sustain an upward movement, trading volume must rise as TON breaks through resistance levels. Higher volume indicates genuine interest from traders, which strengthens the trend, while lower volume may suggest a lack of conviction, limiting the rally’s longevity.

Toncoin

Posted on

Toncoin Takes A Hit With 12% Correction After Failing To Break $4.34, More Pain?

Toncoin rally has hit a roadblock, with the price slipping 12% after failing to breach the key $4.34 resistance level. The strong upward momentum that previously fueled TON’s gains lost steam as sellers aggressively defended this price zone, triggering a wave of profit-taking and increased bearish pressure. 

With momentum cooling off, market participants are now watching key support levels to see if bulls can regain control. A decisive hold above crucial zones could set the stage for another breakout attempt, while continued weakness might expose Toncoin to further downside.

12% Correction: Understanding The Price Drop

Toncoin’s recent 12% correction following its failure to break through the $4.34 resistance level has raised concerns among traders and investors. To understand this price drop, it’s essential to examine the factors at play. A correction of this magnitude typically reflects a shift in market sentiment, often driven by profit-taking, a rejection at key resistance levels, or an overall weakening of bullish momentum.

After a failed breakout attempt at $4.34, the market faced a pullback, where the price retreated as sellers gained control. This is a natural response in the market when an asset struggles to sustain momentum after reaching a significant barrier. The 12% drop suggests that some traders may have begun to lock in profits after the recent rally, while others opted to exit positions as the price failed to move higher. 

Toncoin

Additionally, broader market conditions and technical indicators have likely contributed to Toncoin’s recent 12% correction. In tandem with this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has shifted into a bearish crossover. The MACD’s bearish signal, coupled with the fading market sentiment, suggests that bullish pressure is weakening, which likely fueled the selling activity.

Such a correction is not unusual in volatile markets like cryptocurrency and is often viewed as a natural market reset. However, it signals a loss of immediate bullish momentum, with the price now testing the $2.36 support level. This level should be closely monitored as it will determine whether Toncoin can stabilize or if a further downside is likely.

What’s Next For Toncoin? Potential Scenarios Post-Correction

After Toncoin’s 12% correction, the key question is what lies ahead for the cryptocurrency. The price has faced a strong rejection at the $4.34 resistance level, and now, as it approaches critical support levels, several scenarios could unfold.

If Toncoin holds its ground before or at the $2.36 support level, it could signal a potential rebound, with the price stabilizing and setting up for another push toward the $4.34 resistance. 

On the other hand, if the $2.36 support fails to hold, Toncoin could face a further downside, resulting in the creation of new lows. In this scenario, the market sentiment would need to shift, and Toncoin would have to demonstrate resilience to regain upward momentum.

Toncoin

Posted on

Toncoin (TON) Renewed Upswing Signals Strong Market Confidence

Toncoin (TON) has been steadily climbing since facing a rebound at $2.36, reinforcing a bullish outlook and reflecting increasing investor confidence. Unlike volatile price swings seen in other assets, TON’s consistent rise signals strong underlying demand and market stability. The cryptocurrency has successfully held key support levels, preventing major pullbacks and allowing buyers to take control of the trend.

With momentum building, market participants are closely monitoring resistance levels that could determine the next phase of TON’s price action. Should buying pressure continue to increase, the cryptocurrency could be poised for further gains, potentially testing higher resistance zones. 

Can Toncoin Sustain Its Renewed Upswing?

Toncoin recent price resurgence has strengthened bullish sentiment, but the sustainability of this uptrend remains a critical focus. The cryptocurrency has managed to establish solid footing above the $2.36 key support level. However, maintaining this momentum will depend on several technical and market factors.

The cryptocurrency is currently maintaining its upward momentum as it approaches the $4.34 resistance level and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This steady climb indicates growing bullish strength, with buyers continuing to push the price higher despite potential resistance.

A decisive breakout above the $4.34 resistance level could strengthen the ongoing uptrend, setting the stage for Toncoin toward the $6.13 resistance mark. If buying momentum remains strong and the price clears this key level, it could open the door for a potential test of its all-time high of $7.29.

Toncoin

Technical indicators such as the MACD suggest that momentum remains in favor of the bulls, but increasing resistance pressure might lead to volatility. Sustained buying pressure will confirm the uptrend and push the price beyond these critical technical barriers.

Volume analysis further reinforces Toncoin’s upward momentum, with trading volume increasing by over 10%, indicating strong market participation. Should volume continue to rise alongside price movement, it could validate the strength of the uptrend and enhance the likelihood of further gains.

Potential Downside Risk

If Toncoin faces rejection at a key resistance level, monitoring critical support zones will be essential to assess the strength of its uptrend. The first major support level to watch is around $2.36, where buyers previously showed interest. A dip to this level is likely to attract fresh demand and stabilize the price.

A breakdown below this level could indicate a shift in momentum, accelerating selling pressure and leading to a deeper decline. If buyers fail to defend critical support zones, the price may struggle to recover, increasing the risk of establishing new lows.

Toncoin

Posted on

TON Price Jumps 20% Following Positive News On Telegram Founder

The TON price has reclaimed the $3 mark with an over 20% spurt on Saturday, March 15. This price spike was triggered by the news of a French court approving the departure of Telegram founder Pavel Durov from France.

Telegram Founder Reportedly Cleared To Leave France

According to a report on Saturday, Durov was granted permission by a French court to depart the country, where he faces several charges of enabling organized crime. One of AFP’s sources said that the Telegram founder had been authorized to leave France for “several weeks.”

Durov’s legal troubles began on August 24, 2024, after he was detained at the Le Bourget airport in Paris. A few days later, France’s Prosecutor’s Office brought several charges against the Telegram founder centered around running a messaging platform that allegedly enabled illegal activities.

On August 28, Durov was released on a $6 million bail, albeit with restrictions on his movement and travels. The French prosecutors demanded that the Telegram founder remain in the country until the conclusion of their investigation.

While the current condition of Durov’s case remains unclear, a source close to the case stated the Telegram founder was allowed to leave France temporarily after the investigating judge approved his request to modify the conditions of his supervision. “A third source said Durov had departed for Dubai,” AFP reported.

Durov’s arrest led to an uproar within the crypto community at the time, as experts assessed the implications of such a move on the future of technology and encryption. Moreover, it marked another incident in the worrying trend of holding founders and developers accountable for the use of their platforms.

It is worth mentioning that, as of press time, there has been no official word from Telegram and Durov confirming the report.

TON Price Up 20%

Following the report of Durov’s departure from France, TON (native cryptocurrency of The Open Network) reacted with a more than 20% price spike. As with the general crypto market, the altcoin has struggled to build any momentum in the past few months.

After reaching the local high of $6 in early December, the TON price has since been on a steady decline. On Tuesday, March 11, the cryptocurrency dropped beneath the $2.5 mark for the first time in over a year.

As of this writing, the TON price stands at around $3.4, reflecting an almost 18% surge in the past 24 hours. According to CoinGecko, the token’s performance has improved to a positive 17% gain in the past seven days.

TON Price

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Posted on

Is Toncoin Building a Foundation for a Long-Term Comeback? Analyst Weighs In

Toncoin (TON) continues to face a challenging market environment, struggling to reverse its recent downward trajectory. Trading below the $4 mark, the asset’s price performance over the past weeks has remained largely in the red.

Amid these conditions, CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost has shed light on some underlying trends, highlighting that long-term investors are still seeing positive returns despite the overall bearish climate.

Evaluating TON’s Long-Term Viability and Market Stability

According to Darkfost in the post uploaded on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, long-term holders—those who have maintained their positions for over a year—are currently enjoying a 69% profit, even as short-term investors face losses.

Long term holders percentage gains.

This dynamic raises questions about TON’s potential as a long-term investment, prompting a closer look at the project’s ecosystem and liquidity. A key metric in this regard is the total value locked (TVL) on the network.

Despite market-wide downturns affecting numerous altcoins, data shared by Darkfost revealed that TON’s TVL remains steady at $300 million, maintaining a level of stability since the start of 2024. This resilience in liquidity and locked value suggests a level of sustained confidence in the platform’s fundamentals.

Toncoin: Ecosystem Activity and the Role of Workchains

Beyond price and profitability, another important indicator of TON’s long-term potential lies in its blockchain activity. Darkfost notes that examining the masterchain and workchain can provide valuable insights into the project’s adoption.

The TON workchain, a flexible blockchain layer designed for executing smart contracts and handling user transactions, has demonstrated consistent activity throughout the year.

Notably, the “Hamster Kombat” phenomenon earlier in 2024 caused a noticeable uptick in network usage, highlighting the workchain’s capacity to support various applications and drive engagement.

Meanwhile, the masterchain serves as the network’s backbone. By storing global configuration data, validator states, and hashes from all workchains, the masterchain ensures that the entire ecosystem runs smoothly.

Toncoin (TON) master chain active addresses

According to Darkfost, the ongoing growth of the masterchain highlights TON’s structural stability and increasing adoption. These factors collectively point to an ecosystem that has not only maintained but also expanded its operational scope amid broader market challenges. The analyst wrote:

In conclusion, the TON ecosystem has developed impressively throughout 2024, maintaining robust activity and a solid TVL despite a general decline in crypto market interest. TON appears to have established itself in the crypto ecosystem for the long term.

Toncoin (TON) price chart on TradingView

Featured image created with DALL-E Chart from TradingView

Posted on

Key Metrics Indicate Toncoin Accumulation Continues Despite Price Struggle

After a steady decline, Toncoin (TON) has seen a slight price increase over the past day, rising by 1.7% to $3.85. This movement comes amidst ongoing discussions about its longer-term performance and accumulation trends.

According to an analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Shiven Moodley, there are indications that TON holders are positioning for a potential rebound.

Moodley’s observations, which are detailed in a recent post on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, suggest that the asset may be entering an accumulation phase despite its recent downward trajectory.

Toncoin Shows Signs of Accumulation

Moodley points to several metrics as evidence. The 180-day Sharpe Ratio, a measure of risk-adjusted returns, signals a period of accumulation. This is further supported by stable TVL (Total Value Locked) in lending protocols and a noticeable reduction in speculative trading activity.

Notably, the asset’s volatility has declined since the price spikes in December 2024 and February 2025. If this trend persists, it could imply that selling pressure is diminishing, potentially paving the way for a future rebound.

Key on-chain indicators also paint a picture of potential opportunity. The Normalized Risk Metric (NRM), which evaluates TON’s valuation relative to historical moving averages, highlights accumulation at a price level of $3.82.

Toncoin (TON) Normalized Risk Metric (NRM)

Additionally, record lows in the Long-Term NRM suggest that longer-term holders are increasingly accumulating TON at these levels. Historically, similar setups have preceded market recoveries, giving investors a reason to believe that a medium-term price reversal may be on the horizon.

Moodley wrote:

It remains to be seen whether TON’s price action can stage a full recovery. However, long-term accumulation traders are best positioned to benefit from macro policy changes that could shift sentiment in the broader crypto market. The conditions could align for a potential rebound with selling pressure fading and risk metrics signalling a low-risk environment.

On-Chain Metrics Hint at Long-Term Opportunity

Another metric Moodley pointed out is the Risk Exposure Ratio—which tracks leveraged positions within TON’s DeFi ecosystem—it has recently reached a new high, exceeding 0.24 in early 2025. This suggests a growing influence of leveraged activity.

Toncoin (TON) Risk Exposure Ratio

However, if the ratio begins to decline, it could indicate a stabilization in market conditions, potentially leading to more stable price movements.

Furthermore, the Probability of Spend metric shows that coins older than 400 days are unlikely to move, indicating strong conviction among long-term holders. This trend has historically correlated with phases of accumulation and recovery.

As Moodley notes, short- to medium-term holders appear to be exiting their positions, likely contributing to the recent price weakness. Meanwhile, long-term holders remain consistent, suggesting a belief in the asset’s long-term potential.

If selling pressure continues to ease and risk metrics improve, TON could be setting the stage for a more favorable market environment. In this scenario, long-term investors may be well-positioned to benefit from potential macroeconomic shifts that could ultimately boost Toncoin’s value.

Toncoin (TON) price chart on TradingView

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Posted on

Toncoin (TON) Investors Sitting On 54% Profit Despite Price Plunge

On-chain data shows the Toncoin investors are holding a significant amount of unrealized profit even after the recent bearish action in the asset’s price.

Toncoin Is Still Trading A Notable Distance Above Its Realized Price

In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about the latest trend in a few indicators related to Toncoin. The first metric of relevance is the “Realized Price,” which tells us, in short, the cost basis of the average investor on the TON network.

When the spot price of the cryptocurrency is trading above this indicator, it means the holders as a whole can be assumed to be carrying a net amount of unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being under the metric implies the dominance of loss in the market.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm, that shows the trend in the Toncoin Realized Price over the last few years:

Bitcoin Realized Price

As displayed in the above graph, the Toncoin price has been above the Realized Price for a while now, which means the investors on the whole have been enjoying gains. This arrangement hasn’t changed even after the drawdown that the coin has witnessed recently.

Historically, the Realized Price has acted as a support level for the asset. The reason behind this is the fact that investors can be likely to react to dips to their cost basis by buying more, if the mood in the market is bullish.

At present, the metric has a value of $2.43, which is significantly under the spot price. Based on the historical pattern, Glassnode notes that the level “remains a crucial level for potential buying pressure.”

The next indicator shared by the analytics firm is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. This metric keeps track of the ratio between the spot price and Realized Price of Toncoin.

Toncoin MVRV

From the chart, it’s apparent that the ratio has gone down recently and has reached a value of around 1.54. “This means that, on average, investors are sitting at ~54% unrealized profit,” explains Glassnode.

While the overall market has been able to withstand the recent downturn, it doesn’t mean that there has been no panic loss selling at all for Toncoin. As the below chart for the Realized Loss shows, the buyers who got in during the top ended up realizing a massive amount of loss in the price plunge.

Toncoin Realized Loss

TON Price

At the time of writing, Toncoin is trading around $3.77, up almost 3% in the last 24 hours.

Toncoin Price Chart

Posted on

Analyst Says Toncoin (TON) May Be Primed for Major Recovery—Here’s Why

Toncoin (TON) has faced a prolonged downturn, struggling to regain upward momentum after a tough week. Although it recently recorded a slight daily gain, the asset remains trapped in bearish territory, trading below the $4 mark.

Despite this challenging price performance, analysts suggest that Toncoin may be nearing a significant accumulation phase.

Key Metrics Indicate Potential Recovery

Amid these market conditions, a CryptoQuant contributor, Crazzyblockk, recently shared a detailed outlook on TON. In a post titled “TON Enters Key Buy Zone – A Prime Opportunity,” the analyst outlined key findings from the Ton Price Models.

These models indicate that Toncoin has reached the 0.6x 250-day moving average bottom zone—historically considered a strong accumulation level. Crazzyblockk notes that this data-driven model suggests TON is undervalued, presenting a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors.

Notably, the Ton Price Models leverage historical data to identify oversold conditions and potential entry points. According to Crazzyblockk, assets trading near 0.6x–0.8x of their 250-day moving average often signal strong buy conditions.

Toncoin (TON) price models.

Historically, these levels have served as ideal accumulation zones before major market upturns. The analyst emphasized that TON’s current price position aligns with previous setups that have led to significant price recoveries, making it a promising target for data-driven investment strategies.

Toncoin Price Performance And Outlook

Meanwhile, Toncoin’s price on the higher time frame has continued to demonstrate a bearish move. In the past two weeks alone, this metric has fallen by a double-digit of 23.4% and roughly a 54.3% decrease away from its all-time high of $8.25 registered in June 2024.

However zooming in, TON has shown resilience recording a slight increase of 2.8% in the past day. This uptick although little has been able to push TON’s price above $3.8 nearing the $4 mark.

Toncoin (TON) price chart on TradingView

Interestingly, while TON’s price has risen today, its daily trading volume is notably lower compared to last Friday, when the asset was trading at a similar price level. Last Friday, TON’s trading volume exceeded $214 million. However, as of today, it has decreased to $161.2 million.

One possible explanation for this drop in trading volume could be a shift in investor behavior, with some market participants holding their positions rather than actively trading, potentially in anticipation of continued price appreciation.

Speaking of price appreciation, a renowned crypto analyst known as Ali on X has recently shared an interesting analysis on Toncoin using the TD Sequential indicator.

This indicator is a tool that helps identify potential trend reversals and exhaustion points in price movements. It works by counting a series of consecutive price bars that close higher (in an uptrend) or lower (in a downtrend) than previous bars, forming a sequential count.

Once the count reaches a certain number—often 9 or 13—the indicator suggests that the prevailing trend may be losing momentum and could reverse or pause. According to Ali, TON is on the verge of a rebound based on this tool.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Posted on

New Data Suggests Toncoin (TON) Might Be Undervalued—Here’s What It Means

Toncoin (TON), which once saw significant hype leading to consistent new highs, has struggled to regain upward momentum. After a series of steady declines in the past week, the asset’s price has now slipped below the $4 mark, leaving investors concerned about its near-term potential.

This prolonged downtrend has caused speculation about whether TON might be approaching a crucial turning point that could result in a major reversal in price.

TON’s NMR Hits Rock Bottom: A Golden Opportunity for Investors?

Amid the bearish trend, Joao Wedson, a contributor on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake Platform, recently highlighted some intriguing insights.

In a recent post, titled “TON Reaches NMR Lows: A Signal for Medium- to Long-Term Accumulation,” Wedson explained that the Normalized Metric Risk (NMR) for TON has hit its lowest levels yet.

This indicator assesses the asset’s valuation by comparing its current price against weighted moving averages, including 50-day and 374-day averages. By factoring in logarithmic differences and time-weighted adjustments, the NMR offers a deeper perspective on TON’s market standing.

Toncoin (TON Normalized Risk Metric

Wedson’s analysis suggests that TON’s current low valuation phase could present a potential opportunity for investors. According to his findings, the NMR’s historic low levels indicate that the token might be undervalued.

For those who adopt a medium- to long-term investment horizon, this may be an opportune moment to begin accumulating TON, with the expectation that its price will appreciate over time.

However, it’s worth noting that such a strategy is not without risks. While historically low valuation metrics may hint at future growth, the broader market conditions and TON’s overall adoption will play critical roles in determining whether this approach pays off.

Toncoin Price Performance And Outlook

Meanwhile, Toncoin is currently trading at $3.78—this market price marks not only a 1.1% decline for Toncoin in the past 24 hours but also adds to the prolonged bearish trend in TON in recent weeks marking a 22.5% drop in TON price over the past two weeks.

Notably, so far, TON has fallen roughly 54% from its all-time high of $8.25 registered in January last year. Interestingly, despite this bearishness, another CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost has highlighted a bullish indicator for TON.

According to Darkfost, TON’s risk appetite has soared, “signaling an influx of liquidity into the TON ecosystem.”

Toncoin (TON) price chart on TradingView

 

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Posted on

Is Toncoin Set for a Comeback? Key Market Signals Point to a Possible Rebound

While the broader cryptocurrency market appears to be gradually recovering, Toncoin (TON) has yet to join the upward trend. Over the past week, TON has faced significant challenges, seeing its price dip by 5.4%.

Amid this price performance, a CryptoQuant analyst has highlighted signs of a potential reversal, especially as recent data sheds light on underlying market dynamics that could impact the coin’s near-term trajectory.

Toncoin Open Interest and Potential Reversal Signals

The CryptoQuant analyst Joao Wedson has provided an intriguing perspective. In a recent post titled “TON: Signs of a Reversal?” Wedson highlighted a pattern within the open interest data that could hint at a price rebound.

This analysis comes at a critical time, with market participants seeking any indicators that TON might stabilize and regain lost ground. Wedson’s analysis centers around the weekly variation in Toncoin’s open interest—a measure of the total number of outstanding derivatives contracts on the asset.

Toncoin (TON) open interest delta.

According to the data, the open interest delta has shown a consistent increase whenever TON experiences volatility spikes. Historically, these patterns have been observed ahead of significant price surges, raising the possibility that a similar recovery could be on the horizon.

TON Market Performance

In recent weeks, TON’s price action has been noticeably less bullish. Even as the broader cryptocurrency market experiences gradual gains, TON has struggled to recover, consistently declining and now down roughly 11% over the past two weeks.

This divergence from the broader market’s upward momentum may suggest that TON is facing its own bearish pressures, whether driven by chart patterns or on-chain factors.

For instance, Renowned crypto analyst Ali recently highlighted that TON has faced significant transfers to exchanges signaling increasing sell-offs.

Although TON is trading at $4.84 as of now, up 0.4% on the day, this small increase has not been enough to lift the asset out of its current correction. The continued decline in TON’s price has not only reduced its market capitalization but also significantly diminished its daily trading volume.

Toncoin (TON) price chart on TradingView

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Posted on

Is Toncoin Price Gearing For A Rebound At $5? This On-Chain Metric Suggests So

The cryptocurrency market was in a somewhat uncertain phase over the past week following the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States. This uncertainty is demonstrated by the diverse performance of various assets in the market.

The Toncoin price, for instance, experienced an almost 9% price decline in the last seven days, giving emphasis to the bearish half of the market. According to the latest on-chain data, the cryptocurrency might be preparing for a price rebound after its recent struggles.

Is It Time To Buy Toncoin?

In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, an analyst with the pseudonym Maartunn shared their latest on-chain observations and how it could offer into TON’s price trajectory. The relevant metric here is the Normalized Risk metric (NRM), which evaluates the price risk of an asset compared to its historical price data.

This on-chain indicator can be used to determine whether a cryptocurrency (Toncoin, in this case) is in a favorable or unfavorable risk position. Typically, the value for the Normalized Risk metric ranges from 0 to 1, with values closer to 0 signaling lower risk while values closer to 1 signaling higher risk.

Toncoin

As observed in the highlighted chart, the Normalized Risk’s value is currently closer to zero, implying that the TON price is approaching the low-risk territory. Historically, low values of this metric have been correlated with local price bottoms for Toncoin.

For example, the price of TON slumped to around $5.3 before climbing to $6.8 in August 2024 while the Normalized Risk metric was well beneath 0.1 at the time. Similarly — about a month later, the altcoin’s price jumped to $5.9 after sliding down to $4.6 while the Normalized Risk indicator was around 0.1.

Nevertheless, Maartunn noted that it may take some time for this indicator to “fully bottom out and reach its lowest risk level.” Nevertheless, recent on-chain data suggests that the Normalized Risk metric is nearing a key turning point, implying a strong rebound might be on the cards for the TON price.

TON Price Overview

As of this writing, the price of Toncoin stands at around $5.08, reflecting a mere 0.7% increase in the past 24 hours. This sluggish single-day action underscores the uncertainty in the market — and to be frank, Toncoin’s struggles over the past few weeks.

The TON price has been unimpressive on broader timeframes, failing to successfully break above the $6 mark in the past month. According to data from CoinGecko, the altcoin’s value has declined by nearly 15% in the past month.

Toncoin

 

Posted on

Toncoin Gears Up For A Fresh Rally With Bullish Momentum Building

Toncoin is showing promising signs of recovery, with bullish momentum gradually building as renewed buying interest suggests a shift in market sentiment. After a period of consolidation, the cryptocurrency is gaining traction, fueling optimism for a fresh rally. 

The steady increase in trading activity and improving technical indicators highlight the bulls’ intent to challenge critical resistance levels, which could set the stage for a stronger upward trajectory. However, the path to recovery faces potential obstacles, including resistance barriers and profit-taking by short-term traders, limiting the rally’s momentum. 

Thus, sustaining the current bullish trend will be key in determining whether Toncoin can reclaim higher ground and achieve a more robust recovery. The coming sessions will be pivotal as traders closely monitor price action, volume trends, and support zones to assess the rally‘s strength in the long term.

Technical Indicators Align For A Move-Up

Currently, Toncoin’s capability for a rally is gaining momentum as technical indicators align, pointing to a move upwards. After failing to break below the $5 mark successfully, the cryptocurrency is now showing signs of an uptrend.

Buying pressure is beginning to outweigh selling activity as indicated by the Composite Trend Oscillator’s recent shift away from oversold conditions. As the signal line and the RSI line of the indicator approach neutral territory, TON may be gearing up for a strong surge as traders regain confidence in its upside potential.

Toncoin

Furthermore, Toncoin is attempting to move above its key support levels, signaling possible bullish momentum. The 4-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) turning upward shows that the price is gaining traction in the short term. This shift is important, particularly because the SMA acts as a trend-following indicator, confirming that the market may be entering a phase of sustained positive movement. 

If Toncoin continues to hold above key support levels and the SMA remains positive, especially succeeding in testing and breaking through nearby resistance zones, it might lead to further gains.

Toncoin Road To Recovery: Overcoming Resistance Zones

TON is steadily making its way toward recovery, focusing on overcoming key resistance zones that have previously capped its price progress. If the cryptocurrency maintains its rally and breaks through the $6 resistance, it may trigger a more powerful rally, attracting additional traders and driving the price toward the $7.2 mark. However, should Toncoin fail to sustain its rally, it could face a retracement toward lower support levels, possibly revisiting areas like $5.

This downward move is capable of dampening bullish sentiment, which might lead to a consolidation period or further downside. Therefore, as the altcoin navigates these challenging levels, its ability to break through and uphold positive momentum will be crucial in determining the next phase of its price action.

Toncoin

Posted on

Toncoin Stabilizes Above $5: Is Now The Time To Buy TON?

Toncoin (TON) has shown signs of recovery, trading above $5.5 after experiencing price declines in recent weeks. This rebound has not only boosted TON’s market capitalization by some millions but also brought investors to ponder on Toncoin’s potential for a sustained rally.

Particularly, as the TON market stabilizes so far, questions about investor sentiment and market risk are coming to the forefront.

Is Now The Time To Buy TON

A CryptoQuant Quicktake Platform contributor Darkfost recently analyzed Toncoin’s market behavior, focusing on the annualized realized volatility over a one-week period.

This metric as shared by the analyst has dropped below the 0.25 threshold, offering insights into the prevailing investor sentiment and perceived market risk. While low volatility is often associated with reduced risk, it may also indicate waning market interest or growing investor caution.

Toncoin (TON) realized volatility over one week.

Notably, the decline in realized volatility is a significant development, as periods of low volatility have historically been followed by market reversals. Darkfost emphasized that reduced volatility often signals diminished investor interest, which can present both opportunities and challenges for traders.

On the one hand, such periods may highlight reduced market risks, offering potential entry points for long-term investors. On the other hand, they require careful analysis, as low volatility alone cannot guarantee future price movements.

Darkfost suggested that monitoring these low-volatility periods closely, alongside other indicators, is essential for making informed decisions. Additional evaluation of broader trends and corroborating signals is necessary to identify whether these zones represent genuine buying opportunities.

Toncoin Market Performance And Outlook

In recent weeks, TON’s price has shown little movement in either a bullish or bearish direction. Despite the broader crypto market experiencing a recent downturn, TON has managed to hold steady above the $5 mark, avoiding any significant drops below this level.

Even as the broader crypto market now begins to recover, TON has struggled to break past the $5 threshold, indicating that it may be encountering resistance at this price point. At the time of writing, TON is trading at $5.22, reflecting a modest 0.5% increase over the past day.

Toncoin (TON) price chart on TradingView

Interestingly, despite this encountered resistance above $5, TON appears to still be seeing significant movement behind the scenes. Just yesterday, the network registered over 100% in large transaction volume reaching nearly $8.5 billion

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Posted on

Toncoin Could See A 65% Surge In The Next 43 Days—Here’s Why

The cryptocurrency market has shown heightened activity in early 2025, with Toncoin (TON) emerging as one of the spotlighted assets following an analysis shared by a CryptoQuant analyst, Burak Kesmeci.

According to recent data, the 90-day percent return metric for TON indicates the early stages of an uptrend, raising expectations of a sustained rally in the coming weeks. This trend has been observed historically, with similar metrics signaling substantial gains in past bull cycles.

Historical Data Suggests Strong Price Potential

Kesmeci disclosed that historical analysis reveals that TON has previously demonstrated notable performance following reversals in the 90-day percent return metric.

For example, in August 2023, TON rose from $1.72, delivering a 65% gain over 70 days. Similarly, in February 2024, the asset surged by 258% in just 43 days after a similar metric reversal. The most recent example, recorded in November 2024, saw TON climb 32% within 11 days.

Toncoin (TON) 90-day percent return.

These instances suggest that when the 90-day percent return metric crosses into positive territory, it often serves as a precursor to significant upward price movement. The current trend, which began just seven days ago, has sparked optimism among investors who are considering short-term accumulation strategies.

Kesmeci reveals that if historical trends persist, TON could experience a median gain of 65% over the next 43 days. The analyst wrote:

Currently, we observe that the “90-day percent return” metric for TON has entered a bull trend for the fourth time. It has been only 7 days since this reversal. Based on previous data: Expected duration: 43 days (median value) Potential percentage return: 65% (median value) These insights suggest that TON is likely to continue its upward trend in the short term.

However, it is worth noting that market conditions and external factors, such as overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency sector, could influence the trajectory of this trend.

Toncoin Market Performance

Since the year began, Toncoin has been unable to make a significant movement towards the upside. Instead, the altcoin has continued to face consistent decline. Over the past two weeks, TON has now plunged by a double-digit performance of nearly 12%.

Toncoin (TON) price chart on TradingView

This has brought the asset’s price to currently trade below $6 as of today marking a 7.5% decline in the past 24 hours. Interestingly, despite the consistent decline from TON in recent weeks, the asset’s daily trading volume has seen an opposite trend.

Particularly, in the past 7 days, TON’s daily trading volume has moved from $200 million last Wednesday to now sitting at roughly 344 million as of today. Given the current trend in TON’s price, it is worth noting that this increase in TON’s trading volume might be from the continuous selling pressure in the TON market.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Posted on

Toncoin Price Recovery Continues — Is The Dwindling Staking TVL Ratio Bullish?

The Toncoin price recovery has been one of the few bright spots in the cryptocurrency market over the past week. The climate of the broad market has been sluggish in the festive period, with the two largest assets Bitcoin and Ethereum struggling to make a mark.

With the Toncoin price now approaching the $6 mark, it appears that the altcoin is now fully in its recovery phase. According to a pseudonymous analyst, a recent on-chain phenomenon suggests that the price rally for TON is only just beginning.

What Happened Last Time TON Staking TVL Ratio Was At A Low Level?

In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, an analyst with the pseudonym Joaowedson discussed the dynamics between the staking TVL ratio and Toncoin price. According to the analyst, there is a correlation between the amount locked on TON and price movements.

The Quicktake analyst highlighted a trend whereby investors withdraw their assets in order to explore trading opportunities whenever there is a price increase. This phenomenon has also been observed in the TON ecosystem, with the TVL metric dropping in recent weeks.

Joaowedson noted that the staking TVL ratio has reached new lows, coinciding with what appears to be a bottom for the price of Toncoin. Ultimately, this suggests that the odds of an increase in the Toncoin price are higher.

Toncoin price

While the idea of reduced interest in staking leading to price growth seems counterintuitive, it can be justified by the increase in liquidity available for trading. 

The Quicktake analyst explained:

When investors withdraw funds from staking, they often transfer them to exchanges for quick trades. This movement increases demand for the token, driving prices higher.

From a historical perspective, a similar situation occurred in March 2024 when the staking TVL ratio shrunk significantly as the TON price soared to new highs. “Interestingly, as interest in staking diminished, funds started migrating to centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX) like Ston.FI and Dedust, boosting the TVL in those categories,” Joaowedson added.

With investors more willing to make their assets available for trading, there is a higher likelihood of price increases due to growing demand. If this holds true, the Toncoin price could return to around its recent highs.

Toncoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the Toncoin price stands at around $5.78, reflecting a 0.5% decline in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the value of TON is up by more than 6% on the weekly timeframe.

Toncoin price