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Bitcoin Network Fundamentals Could Sustain $265,000 Price, CryptoQuant CEO Explains

The CEO of analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained how the Bitcoin network fundamentals could support a market cap three times the current size.

Bitcoin Hashrate/Market Cap Ratio Could Reveal Ceiling For Cycle

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has talked about what the network fundamentals could reveal about how much more market cap Bitcoin can sustain.

BTC is a cryptocurrency that runs on the proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism, meaning that validators called miners compete with each other using computing power to get the chance to add the next block to the blockchain.

Miners have to pay constant electricity costs to run this computing power. Generally, these chain validators do so by selling their block rewards. These rewards are fixed in BTC value and given out at a more or less constant rate, so the main variable in miner finances is the asset’s USD value.

Mining-related economics are very much related to the cryptocurrency’s price. A metric central to the miners is the Hashrate, a measure of the computing power this cohort has connected to the Bitcoin blockchain.

Below is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day average value of this BTC indicator over the past year.

Bitcoin Mining Hashrate

As the graph shows, the Bitcoin Hashrate has been riding an uptrend during this period, largely due to the rally that the asset’s price has enjoyed in this window.

To relate this fundamental metric with the price of the asset, the CryptoQuant CEO has referred to the “Hashrate/Market Cap Ratio,” which is an indicator that keeps track of how the market cap (that is, the total valuation) of the cryptocurrency compares against its Hashrate.

Here is the chart shared by Ju that shows the trend in this metric over the last few years:

Bitcoin Hashrate/Market Cap Ratio

The graph shows that the Bitcoin Hashrate/Market Cap Ratio has been at low levels compared to the highs the metric achieved during the 2021 bull run.

This is despite the fact that the asset’s price is currently at similar levels to back then. The reason behind this trend is that the network’s Hashrate is now more than three times what it was then.

If the ratio’s high from the previous cycle top is where the cycle peak will also be observed this time around, then it means that the asset’s market cap could increase over three times from its current value.

Based on this, Ju suggests that the current network fundamentals could potentially sustain a price of $265,000.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $62,300, up more than 9% over the past week.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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Cardano Offering Better Buying Window Than Other Top Coins, Santiment Reveals

The analytics firm Santiment has revealed that Cardano (ADA) currently shows a slightly better buying opportunity than the other top coins.

Cardano May Be Showing A Good Buying Opportunity According To RSI

In a new post on X, Santiment discussed how the top assets in the cryptocurrency sector have been performing regarding the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

The RSI here refers to a technical analysis (TA) indicator that tracks the velocity and magnitude of recent changes in any given commodity’s price.

This momentum oscillator is generally used to judge whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued right now. The indicator displays its value on a scale that runs from zero to one hundred.

When the RSI is above 70, the corresponding asset may be considered overbought and due for correction. On the other hand, the metric being below 30 implies potential oversold status, with a probable price rebound.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the 1-day RSI for some of the top cryptocurrencies by market cap:

Image

As the above graph shows, Cardano currently has the lowest 1-day RSI value out of these top cryptocurrencies at around 32.4. Although the asset isn’t yet inside the actual underpriced zone, this value that’s close enough could still suggest that ADA is providing a good entry point right now.

As Santiment points out, most of the top assets appear to provide a slight buying opportunity. Shiba Inu (SHIB) is currently the lowest one next to ADA, with an RSI value of 38.4.

Both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have prices slightly undervalued to a similar degree, as their RSI values are around the 41 mark. Dogecoin (DOGE) is more or less neutral at the moment, as the metric is just under 50 for the memecoin.

Toncoin (TON) appears to be the riskiest buyout of these top assets if RSI is anything to go by, as the metric stands at 55.1 currently (note that the chart has wrongly marked TON as ETH, as Santiment has admitted in a reply to a user under the post). Nonetheless, this value is still quite close to the neutral level of 50.

It now remains to be seen how the Cardano price develops from here, given that the RSI has flagged it as perhaps the most undervalued of the top coins.

ADA Price

Cardano hasn’t been able to recover from last month’s crash so far. All attempts at a surge have failed, with the coin slumping back to consolidation around the current $0.44 level.

Cardano Price Chart

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PEPE Whales Move $21 Million Worth Of Coins – Here Are The Destinations

On-chain data shows PEPE whales have moved large amounts of the memecoin during the past day. Here’s where these tokens have been heading.

PEPE Whales Have Been Active On The Network Today

According to data from the cryptocurrency transaction tracker service Whale Alert, two large PEPE transactions have occurred in the space of a few hours during the past day. Both of these moves are of a scale that’s typically associated to the whales, humongous entities that can carry some influence in the market thanks to their ability to make such large transfers.

Because of their position on the network, their moves can be worth watching, as they may end up reflecting on the price of the cryptocurrency. As for how exactly the asset may be impacted by the transfers of these investors can come down to what they intended to achieve with the moves.

It can be hard to say about any exact motive, but the details of the transactions on the blockhain can sometimes provide hints about the context surrounding it.

Below are the details of the first PEPE whale transfer from the past day:

PEPE Whale Inflow

As is visible, the sending address in the case of this PEPE whale transaction was an unknown wallet, meaning that it was unattached to any known centralized platform like an exchange. Such wallets are usually the investors’ personal, self-custodial addresses.

The receiving address, on the other hand, does have a platform affiliated to it: the cryptocurrency exchange Binance. Thus, it would appear that the whale moved 1,238,332,920,144 PEPE (worth over $10.5 million at the time the transfer went through) from their personal wallet to the custody of the exchange.

Transfers of this type are known as exchange inflows. The investors make exchange inflows whenever they want to make use of one of the services that these platforms provide, which can include selling. As such, exchange inflows can end up being bearish for the price.

If the whale, in the current case, indeed made the deposit to sell, then PEPE could naturally be negatively impacted, given the large scale of the transaction. Fortunately for the investors of the meme coin, though, the second transaction from today is actually the exact opposite of this transfer; it’s an exchange outflow.

PEPE Whale Outflow

As displayed above, this PEPE whale moved coins from Binance to an unknown wallet through this transaction. Investors generally transfer to personal addresses when they plan to hold in the long term, as it’s safer to do so outside the custody of central entities. Thus, it’s possible this whale plans to HODL these coins.

Interestingly, the amount involved in this move, 1,241,850,000,000 PEPE ($10.5 million), is quite similar to the exchange inflow. Given that the same exchange is also involved in both, it’s possible that the same whale may in fact be responsible for the both of them.

Though, since the addresses don’t quite match, it’s still uncertain. Either way, the fact that an equal-sized exchange outflow has occurred mere hours after should be able to balance out any bearish effects arising out of the inflow, at least in theory.

PEPE Price

At the time of writing, PEPE is floating around the $0.000008445479 mark, up more than 21% over the past week.

PEPE Price Chart

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Bitcoin To Reach Escape Velocity? Analyst Makes The Case

An analyst has explained how Bitcoin seems to be showing a good setup to reach escape velocity based on the trend in this indicator.

Bitcoin VWAP Oscillator Has Been Showing A Bullish Divergence

As explained by analyst Willy Woo in a new post on X, a bullish divergence has appeared to be forming in the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) oscillator of the cryptocurrency.

The VWAP is an indicator that calculates an average price for any given asset, taking into account not only the price but also the volume. More formally, it’s calculated as the cumulative price sum multiplied by the volume divided by the cumulative volume.

This metric puts a higher weight on the price at which more volume is traded. Usually, the exchange-reported volume is used to find the metric, but for a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin, the entire transaction history is visible to the public thanks to blockchain data. Woo has used on-chain volume instead to calculate the VWAP for BTC.

The VWAP oscillator, the actual indicator of interest here, is a ratio between the asset’s spot price and VWAP. Here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in this metric over the past couple of years:

Bitcoin VWAP Oscillator

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin VWAP oscillator has been in the negative territory for the past month but has recently shown a turnaround.

Although the metric is heading up, it’s still very much contained inside the red zone. At the same time as this rise, the cryptocurrency’s price has been heading down instead.

According to Woo, this is a bullish divergence forming for the asset and it’s also one that has a “lot of room to run,” since tops in the coin have generally occurred when the oscillator has reached a point of reversal at relatively high levels inside the positive zone, which should still be quite far away.

“Seems like a good setup for BTC to reach escape velocity,” notes the analyst. It remains to be seen whether the bullish divergence will end up bearing fruits for the asset.

In some other news, the Bitcoin whales (investors carrying 1,000 BTC or more) participated in buying around the recent lows of the asset. Still, market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock has revealed that the accumulation sprees from these large investors have been displaying an overall downtrend.

Bitcoin Whale Accumulation

From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin whales have been buying at each of the dips in the last few months, but it’s also visible that the scale of this buying has been diminishing with each one.

This could be a sign that the appetite for buying among these investors, although still present, is getting smaller with each dip.

BTC Price

When writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $63,500, up over 1% in the last seven days.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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Bitcoin Relative Open Interest Lowest Since Feb, Analyst Says “Hard To Be Bearish”

Data shows the Bitcoin Open Interest as a percentage of its market cap has been at lows recently, a sign the derivatives side has been healthy.

Bitcoin Open Interest Is Now Less Than 2% Of The Market Cap

As explained by analyst James Van Straten in a new post on X, the derivatives side of the market has looked “extremely healthy” while BTC’s latest recovery has occurred.

The metric of interest here is the “Open Interest,” which keeps track of the total amount of derivatives-based Bitcoin positions that are currently open on all centralized exchanges.

When the value of this indicator goes up, it means that the investors are opening up more positions on the market right now. Generally, the total leverage in the market rises when such a trend takes place, so the price of the asset could end up turning more volatile following it.

On the other hand, a decline in the metric suggests users are either closing up their positions of their own volition or getting forcibly liquidated by their platform. The cryptocurrency may behave in a more stable manner following such a decrease.

Now, here here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Open Interest over the past few years:

Image

In the graph, the Open Interest is displayed as a percentage of the asset’s market cap (that is, the total valuation of the entire BTC circulating supply at the current spot price).

It would appear that the indicator has registered a drawdown recently and has slipped under the 2% mark. This would suggest that the positions on the derivatives market now make up for less than 2% of the market cap.

From the chart, it’s visible that the metric had earlier spiked to a high as the coin’s rally towards a new all-time high had taken place. Interestingly, the market cap was rapidly going up in this rally, but this ratio was still trending up, implying that speculation had been growing at a rate faster than the price.

This may have been a sign that the derivatives side was starting to become overheated. In the drawdown that had followed the price top, the investors had started getting liquidated, leading to the ratio registering a decline.

The most recent price drop had helped reset the market further, bringing the ratio down to levels not seen since February. Bitcoin has been mounting a recovery effort in the past few days, but so far, the derivatives market has remained cool. “Hard to be bearish here,” says the analyst.

It now remains to be seen if the health of the market would continue to look optimistic in the coming days, thus potentially allowing for the recovery to go a step further.

BTC Price

Bitcoin had returned back above $65,500 earlier, but the asset has since seen a small pullback as it’s now down to $64,100.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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XRP Forms On-Chain Signal That Led To 16% Crash Last Time

On-chain data shows that many old coins have moved on the XRP network recently, a sign that proved to be bearish for the coin last time.

XRP Age Consumed Metric Has Registered A Large Spike

According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, XRP has just observed a large movement of dormant coins similar to what the asset witnessed last month.

The indicator of interest here is the “Age Consumed,” which shows “the amount of tokens changing addresses on a certain date, multiplied by the time since they last moved,” as per Santiment’s definition.

When this metric has a high value, it means that a large number of coins previously dormant have finally been moved to the blockchain. Old coins are generally less likely to become involved in selling, as they belong to the more resolute hands in the market. As such, any large movements of these coins can be worth noting since it’s not an event that happens too often.

The below chart shows the trend in this indicator for XRP over the past month or so:

XRP Age Consumed

From the graph, it’s visible that the XRP Age Consumed registered a sharp spike at the start of this month, implying that some old hands have decided to break their silence.

This latest spike has been quite massive in scale and has been reminiscent of another spike that was seen last month. Interestingly, this previous spike occurred shortly before the price of the cryptocurrency tanked 16%.

Thus, the previous spike would have corresponded to some HODLers moving to sell their coins. It’s possible that the latest large dormant coin movement was also made for a similar purpose, and hence, it can prove to be bearish for XRP.

Santiment points out that this may not be so after all, though, saying:

There is an argument that this old coin movement is related to potential #buythedip interest from key stakeholders, and prices have been climbing mildly since this May spike occurred.

While this dormant coin movement may turn out to be bullish this time around, there is another signal brewing for the asset that can also be something to keep an eye on.

As highlighted in the same chart, the Total Open Interest for XRP, which keeps track of the number of derivative positions currently open on all exchanges related to the asset, has been going up recently.

This metric is now at a 3-week high of $483.4 million, implying that there is a notable amount of speculation in the market right now. Historically, this has led to volatility in the price.

In theory, this volatility can take the asset in either direction, but it’s worth noting that the crash last month occurred after the Open Interest hit extreme levels. So far, though, the indicator hasn’t quite yet reached the same highs.

XRP Price

XRP is yet to make any significant recovery from the crash last month as its price is still trading around $0.52.

XRP Price Chart

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Crypto Analyst Says Cardano “Ready For A Parabolic Bull Run,” Here’s Why

An analyst has explained how, if the historical pattern followed by the ADA price is to be believed, Cardano seems ready to go on a parabolic bull run.

Cardano May Be Set For A Bull Run Based On Historical Trends

In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed what hints history may contain regarding where ADA’s price would go next from here. First, here is a chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend the cryptocurrency followed back in 2019:

Cardano 2019 Trend

From the graph, it’s visible that the asset had first consolidated inside a parallel channel during this period. A “parallel channel” in technical analysis (TA) refers to the region bounded by two parallel trend lines.

The upper line of the pattern connects the tops in the price, while the lower one joins the bottoms. When consolidating inside the channel, the price is probable to find resistance at the upper end and support at the lower one.

A break out of either of these lines can imply a continuation of the trend in that direction. As is visible in the chart, ADA managed to break out of this past parallel channel with a 75% surge. The asset then followed this rally up with a correction of around 56% before finally lifting off into a massive 4,095% bull run.

Interestingly, just like in 2019, Cardano was stuck inside a similar parallel channel in 2023. The chart below shows this recent pattern for the cryptocurrency.

Cardano 2023 Pattern

As displayed in the graph, Cardano broke out of this latest parallel channel a while ago, this time with a rally of around 72%. Recently, though, the asset has lost this bullish momentum, as it has seen a drawdown of 50%. According to the analyst, however, this can, in fact, set the stage for a new bull run.

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes! If that is the case for Cardano, we should be positioning ourselves for what’s coming, understanding that the recent price correction might just be one of the last buy-the-dip opportunities ADA will give you.

It now remains to be seen whether ADA will repeat the pattern from the last bull run or not. This is more about the long-term view, though, so where might the asset go in the short term? This may be answered by a signal that the analyst has shared in another X post.

Cardano TD Sequential

As Martinez explains:

The TD Sequential, which timed the Cardano top, now presents a buy signal on the ADA daily chart. It anticipates a one to four daily candlesticks rebound that could put an end to the ADA corrective phase.

ADA Price

At the time of writing, Cardano is trading around $0.464, down 3% over the past week.

Cardano Price Chart

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Bitcoin Loses Historical Level, Analyst Says “Reclaim And Bounce, Or Die”

An analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin recently closed below a historically important on-chain level, a failure to reclaim which could spell trouble for BTC.

Bitcoin Fell Below Short-Term Holder Cost Basis In Latest Crash

In a new post on X, Maartunn discussed BTC’s recent close below the realized price of the short-term holders and stressed its importance in reclamation.

The “realized price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that tracks the price at which the average investor on the Bitcoin network acquired their coins. In other words, it measures the average cost basis in the BTC market.

When the spot value of a cryptocurrency is below this metric, it means that the average investor in the market is carrying their coins at a loss right now. On the other hand, being above the indicator suggests that the holders as a whole are in the green currently.

In the current topic, the realized price of the entire Bitcoin market isn’t of interest but rather of only a subsection: the short-term holders (STH).

The STHs are the BTC investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. These holders represent the inconsistent side of the market, who easily show a reaction whenever a change like a crash or rally occurs in the sector.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the realized price specifically for these investors over the past year:

Bitcoin STH Realized Price

The realized price of the Bitcoin STHs is floating around $58,500. During the latest crash, Bitcoin went as low as below $57,000, meaning that the plunge has put these investors under pressure.

Historically, the average cost basis of the STHs has been significant for the cryptocurrency, as it has taken turns acting as support and resistance, depending on the market’s phase.

During bullish trends, this metric often acts as a point of support. The chart shows that when Bitcoin had declined near this level earlier in the year, it had found a rebound.

The metric acts as resistance during bear markets, keeping the price below it. These patterns may be related to how investor psychology works.

In bullish periods, the STHs might view their cost basis as a profitable buying opportunity, so they accumulate during dips in it, thus helping the price turn around. In bear markets, these investors could look at the level as a point of exit, as they may not believe the price will go up any further.

After closing below the STH realized price earlier, Bitcoin is now fighting to reclaim this historical level. It now remains to be seen if support will once again be found or if the level will truly become lost.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has climbed back above the STH realized price, trading above $59,300. This is certainly a sign in the positive direction, but it’s hard to say whether this recovery will last.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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Bitcoin On Track For $1 Million Per BTC “Fair Value”, Analyst Says

An analyst has explained how the “fair value” of Bitcoin appears to be on track to achieve the $1 million milestone by 2035.

Bitcoin Total User Count Could Forecast Fair Value Path Forward

In a new post on X, analyst Willy Woo has discussed about how the fair value of Bitcoin could look like in the future based on the growth curve in the total user count on the network.

The “total user count” here refers to the total number of investors present in the BTC space. Often, this metric is equated with the total number of addresses on the network carrying a balance, but in reality, it’s not the most accurate method as a lot of investors own multiple wallets.

To make an estimation of an adoption curve, Woo has referred to all past studies done on the user count. The analyst shared the below chart in an X post a few days back.

Bitcoin Total User Count

The early part of the chart here is based on Glassnode’s on-chain clustering of addresses into “entities.” An entity is a collection of Bitcoin wallets that Glassnode has determined to belong to the same investor.

For the next part of the curve, Woo has added the Cambridge and Crypto.com data on verified exchange users. Finally, the analyst has projected the resulting growth rate forward.

According to this curve, there are a total of 426 million Bitcoin investors at the moment, with the number estimated to hit the 0.5 billion milestone by October of this year. Interestingly, the price of the cryptocurrency has been oscillating around this total user count growth curve throughout the years, as the below chart depicts.

Bitcoin Price Vs Adoption

More specifically, this oscillation in the price around the adoption curve of the cryptocurrency has existed since 2012. This means that in the pre-2012 period (the shaded region in the graph), this pattern doesn’t quite hold.

“In the early days price was slow to catch up to user count, BTC didn’t even have a price until the 1000th user came in,” notes Woo. “Price discovery started with early markets like New Liberty Standard and MtGox. By Aug 2011 Bitstamp launched and we had multiple global exchanges to properly price the asset.”

Now, if the growth curve of Bitcoin is taken as a guide for its future value as well, then the analyst projects a $1 million per BTC fair value by the year 2035. “Fair value” here is based on the line around which the asset has been oscillating.

From the chart, it’s visible that BTC has historically gained distance over this line during bull markets, so the peak value in future rallies can be significantly more than this fair value.

It now remains to be seen how the price of the cryptocurrency will develop in the coming years and whether this relationship between it and the total user count will continue to hold or not.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has observed a plunge of more than 8% over the past week, which has brought its price down to $58,600.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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Crypto Analyst Predicts 244% Shiba Inu Rally Based On Bull Flag

An analyst explained how Shiba Inu could be heading towards a massive rally based on a bull flag pattern that forms in its daily chart.

Shiba Inu Has Been Consolidating Inside A Bull Flag Recently

In a new post on X, analyst Ali has discussed about a bull flag that has recently appeared in the daily price of Shiba Inu. The bull flag is a pattern in technical analysis (TA) that, as its name suggests, is shaped like a flag on a pole.

The pattern forms when an uptrend is followed by a period of consolidation inside a parallel channel toward the downward direction. The starting uptrend makes up for the pole, while the channel acts as the flag.

Like other TA patterns, the consolidation channel or flag here comprises two parallel lines. The upper level connects the price tops, while the lower one joins the bottoms.

When the asset retests either of these levels, it’s probable to undergo a reversal, with the upper line of the channel acting as a point of resistance and the lower one as support.

A break above the resistance line is considered a bullish signal for the price. The uptrend resulting from such a break may be the same length as the flag’s pole.

On the other hand, a drop below the flag (that is, a breakdown of support) invalidates the formation and may even suggest the takeover of bearish momentum for the asset.

Similar to the bull flag, there is also the bear flag in TA, which works much in the same way, except that it occurs during a downtrend (with the flag signifying consolidation towards the upside following a downward pole).

Now, here is the chart shared by Ali that shows the bull flag pattern Shiba Inu has potentially been forming on its daily price recently:

Shiba Inu Bull Flag

From the graph, it’s clear that the Shiba Inu 1-day price has been consolidating inside what appears to be a bull flag pattern channel in the past few weeks.

“I’m placing buy orders around $0.000018343, aiming for a bullish breakout that sends $SHIB to $0.000072323,” says the analyst. The former level is about where SHIB should meet the flag’s support next if it continues in its current trajectory, while the latter target is based on the height of the pole.

A run to the bullish target of $0.000072323 would imply a rally of more than 244% from the current spot price of the cryptocurrency, while from the lower support of $0.000018343, any such surge would correspond to a growth of over 294%.

It remains to be seen whether Shiba Inu will show a break above this bull flag pattern and, if it does, whether the price will benefit from bullish effects.

SHIB Price

At the time of writing, Shiba Inu is trading around $0.00002110, down more than 18% over the past week.

Shiba Inu Price Chart

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Bitcoin Greed No More: Sentiment Back At Neutral After $57,000 Plunge

Data shows that Bitcoin sentiment has cooled off to neutral from greed following the asset’s latest plunge to the $57,000 level.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Has Returned To Neutral Levels

The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator created by Alternative that shows the average sentiment among investors in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency market.

This index estimates sentiment by considering five factors: volatility, trading volume, social media data, market cap dominance, and Google Trends.

The metric uses a scale that runs from zero to 100 to represent this average sentiment. All values under 46 suggest that investors are fearful, while those above 54 imply a greedy market. The zone between these two cutoffs naturally corresponds to the territory of neutral mentality.

Now, here is what the Bitcoin sentiment looks like right now, according to the Fear & Greed Index:

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index

As displayed above, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is at a value of 54, implying that investors share a neutral sentiment currently. However, the neutrality is only just, as the metric is right at the boundary of the greed region.

This is a significant departure from yesterday’s sentiment: 67. The chart below shows how the indicator’s value has changed recently.

Bitcoin Neutral

As the graph shows, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has been declining recently. For most of February and March, as well as the first half of April, the indicator was in or near a special zone called extreme greed.

The market assumes this sentiment at values above 75. As the asset price struggled recently, the mentality cooled off from this extreme zone and entered the normal greed region. With the latest crash in BTC, the index has seen a sharp plunge, now exiting out of greed altogether.

Historically, cryptocurrency has tended to move against the majority’s expectations. The stronger this expectation, the higher the probability of such a contrary move.

This expectation is considered the strongest in extreme sentiment zones, as well as extreme fear and greed. As such, major bottoms and tops have often occurred in these territories.

The all-time high (ATH) price last month, which continues to be the top of the rally so far, also occurred alongside extreme values of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index.

With the sentiment now cooled to neutral, some investors may be watching for a fall into fear. This is natural because a rebound would become more probable the worse the sentiment gets now.

BTC Price

During Bitcoin’s latest plunge, its price briefly slipped below $57,000 before surging back to $57,300.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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Bitcoin To $92,190: Crypto Analyst Reveals Path To ATH Target

An analyst has explained what path Bitcoin might need to follow to surge to a new all-time high (ATH) target of $92,190.

Bitcoin Needs To Breach This Resistance Barrier To Rise To New ATH

In a new thread on X, analyst Ali discussed whether the BTC price has hit the top. The one signal the analyst has pointed out that may point towards the top has been the massive scale of profit-taking that the market has seen recently.

Ali is waiting for another confirmation before the top can be confirmed. In the scenario that the top gets validated, these are the targets the analyst has marked based on on-chain data.

Bitcoin URPD

The above chart shows the Bitcoin UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data from Glassnode, which tells us how many coins were last bought at what price levels.

Generally, the cost basis is an important level for any investor, so they are likely to show some reaction when a retest of it happens. This reaction is the largest when many investors share their cost basis around the same level.

When this retest happens from above, the holders may respond by buying more, as they could see the drop as a dip opportunity. As such, large cost basis zones below the current price can prove to be centers of support.

“If the market top is confirmed, BTC could drop toward $51,530 or even $42,700!” notes Ali, given that these two levels are the next major support lines for the coin.

The analyst says, however, that if BTC can instead break the $66,250 level, which is a source of major resistance right now since these loss holders may be desperate to exit at their break-even, then this bearish outlook could become invalidated.

An on-chain pricing model could provide some hints about what might happen when such a break occurs.

Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Bands

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Pricing Bands is a model that, in short, tells us about where the different multipliers of the average cost basis of the entire market currently lie.

The chart shows that the market cost basis is currently at $28,800. Historically, three multipliers of this metric have been relevant for the asset: 0.8x, 2.4x, and 3.2x.

The 0.8x level is where bottoms occur, while the 3.2x line is a probable spot for tops to form. Bull rallies in proper have occurred after a breach of the 2.4x level.

At present, the 2.4x level lies at $69,150. “By rising above $66,250, Bitcoin will gain the strength to push towards $69,150. And if this resistance barrier is breached, BTC can advance toward a new all-time high of $92,190,” explains Ali.

This ATH target is based on the fact that the 3.2x level is equivalent to $92,190 at the moment. It remains to be seen whether the top is already in and BTC would retest the lower levels or if more is left to this rally.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $61,100, down more than 7% over the past week.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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Bitcoin Dominance: Traders Preferring The OG To Dogecoin & Other Altcoins

On-chain data suggests Bitcoin has recently experienced an influx of investors while Dogecoin, Cardano, and other altcoins have seen a slowdown.

Bitcoin Total Amount Of Holders Rise While Altcoins See Flat Movement

According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, the number of Bitcoin investors has sharply increased recently. The on-chain metric of interest here is the “Total Amount of Holders,” which keeps track of the total number of addresses on a given network carrying some non-zero balance.

When the value of this indicator goes up for any asset, it can be due to several things. The first and most obvious contributor to this trend would be adoption, as a fresh influx of users would naturally create more addresses.

Another contributor could be old investors returning to reinvest in the coin after selling out their balance earlier. The indicator would also increase when investors spread out their holdings among multiple wallets for reasons like privacy.

In general, some net adoption occurs whenever the Total Amount of Holders goes up. Historically, adoption has been a constructive sign for any blockchain in the long term.

Naturally, when this metric’s value goes down, it implies that some investors have decided to exit from the cryptocurrency as they have completely cleaned out their wallets.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Total Amount of Holders for some of the top assets in the sector: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP (XRP), Cardano (ADA), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Chainlink (LINK).

Bitcoin Total Amount of Holders Vs Dogecoin

As displayed in the graph, Dogecoin started 2024 with some rapid adoption as its Total Amount of Holders had been observing a sharp uptrend. However, this growth only lasted for the first couple of months, as the metric has since flattened for the memecoin.

Other altcoins like Chainlink and Cardano have also witnessed flat action in the metric in this period. The trend had been just the opposite for Bitcoin, where more or less flat movement had occurred in its number of investors earlier in the year, but the asset has seen some uptrend in the metric this month.

It’s possible that investors were previously attracted to Dogecoin and other networks, but now that markets have been undergoing bearish price action, traders are back to preferring the original cryptocurrency.

Overall, DOGE’s holders are still up 13.8% in the past three months, while BTC’s growth stands at 2.6%. Naturally, the latter’s userbase is also larger, so a relatively small percentage could be due to that.

Cardano is among the few networks in the sector that have observed negative action in the Total Amount of Holders during this window, although the decrease is a mere 0.1%.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has been struggling to make any recovery run count recently, as its price is back at $63,000 after the latest failed attempt.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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This Bitcoin Metric Foreshadowed Recent Price Drops, Quant Reveals

A quant has pointed out how a Bitcoin metric may have detected selling pressure in the market, and therefore, the subsequent price drops, in advance.

Bitcoin CDD Registered Spikes Before Recent Price Plunges

In a new post on X, an analyst has discussed about how the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) on-chain indicator may be used to identify selling pressure in the market early.

A “coin day” refers to the quantity that 1 BTC accumulates after staying still on the blockchain for 1 day. When a token stays dormant for a while, it naturally accumulates some number of coin days, and once it’s finally transferred on the network, its coin days counter resets back to zero.

The coin days that this token had been carrying prior to this movement are said to be “destroyed” by the transaction. The CDD keeps track of the total number of such days being reset across the network on any given day.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the CDD for Bitcoin over the last couple of months:

Bitcoin CDD

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin CDD observed a large spike just a few days ago. Whenever this metric’s value shoots up, it means that a large amount of coins previously dormant are now on the move.

Such transfers are generally correlated with the long-term holder whales, who are large entities who carry their coins for significant periods, and thus, accumulate a large number of coin days.

Often, when these dormant entities finally break their silence, it’s for selling-related purposes. As such, spikes in the CDD can be an indication that the HODLer whales have decided to do some selling.

In the chart, the quant has highlighted the major spikes that the indicator observed during the last two months. It would appear that following the onset of such spikes, the asset’s price has generally gone on to witness some bearish action.

The aforementioned spike from a few days ago, too, has proven to be bearish for the asset so far as it occurred when Bitcoin had recovered towards $67,000, and the price has since erased this recovery. It would appear that some of these diamond hands had looked at this surge as an exit opportunity.

Last month, the CDD had seen two spikes even larger than this recent one. These spikes had occurred near what continues to be the top for the rally so far. Thus, the selling pressure from HODLers may have played a role in this top and the subsequent drawdown that followed.

Given the relationship that this metric has appeared to have held with the Bitcoin price, it may be worth keeping an eye on it, as it may continue to indicate the onset of selling pressure in the near future as well.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has continued its bearish trajectory during the past day as it has now slipped towards the $62,300 level.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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XRP Whales Are Active: Here’s Where They Are Sending Coins

On-chain data shows the XRP whales have been active during the past day. Here are the destinations their moves have been heading to.

XRP Whales Have Moved Around Big Amounts In Last 24 Hours

According to data from the cryptocurrency transaction tracker service Whale Alert, several large XRP transactions have been witnessed on the blockchain in the past day.

More specifically, five transfers in total that are of scale often attributed to the whales have occurred on the network inside this window. Since whale transactions involve the transfer of a significant sum of capital, they can sometimes cause fluctuations in the market.

The implications any whale transfers might have for the market depend on their intent. However, the exact purpose behind any transfer can be hard to ascertain. Nonetheless, the address details of the transaction may provide at least some hints about the context surrounding it.

First, here are the details regarding the oldest XRP whale transfer from the past day:

XRP Whale Deposit

As is visible above, this transaction involved the movement of 29.74 million XRP, worth $15.7 million at the time of the transfer. The sender was an unknown wallet, likely a whale’s address.

On the other hand, the receiver was a wallet attached to a known centralized platform: the cryptocurrency exchange Bitso. Thus, the whale here made a deposit to the exchange from their personal address.

Investors usually make such transactions whenever they want to use one of the services platforms like these provide, including selling. As such, exchange inflows can prove to be bearish for the price.

The second-oldest whale transaction from the past 24 hours was also an exchange inflow, this one towards Bitstamp. Interestingly, the sending address for this one was the same as the Bitso deposit, so the same whale was probably behind both of these moves.

The large investor shifted 27,430,000 XRP ($14.5 million) to the exchange in this second move. Naturally, if the whale has made these large moves for selling, they could be a bad sign for the asset’s price.

Though, perhaps fortunately for the XRP investors, two exchange outflows have also occurred recently, which may cancel out these inflows. Below are the details of the two larger withdrawals.

XRP Withdrawal

In this move, a whale took out around 26.67 million XRP ($14 million) from Binance. Today’s exchange outflow also involved Binance, with another 20.85 million tokens ($10.6 million) leaving the platform.

The fifth and final transfer was the largest during the past day at a whopping 100 million XRP ($53 million), but this move involved unknown wallets on both sides so it’s impossible to say why the move would have been made.

The reason could have been anything, from a change of wallets to selling through over-the-counter (OTC) means.

XRP Price

XRP had recovered to $0.57 earlier in the week, but it appears that the coin has lost this progress; it’s back at $0.52 now.

XRP Price Chart

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85% Of Altcoins In “Opportunity Zone,” Santiment Reveals

The on-chain analytics firm Santiment has revealed that over 85% of all altcoins in the sector are currently in the historical “opportunity zone.”

MVRV Would Suggest Most Altcoins Are Ready For A Bounce

In a new post on X, Santiment discussed how the altcoin market looks based on their MVRV ratio model. The “Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio” is a popular on-chain indicator that compares the market cap of Bitcoin against its realized cap.

The market cap here is the usual total valuation of the asset’s circulating supply based on the current spot price. At the same time, the latter is an on-chain capitalization model that calculates the asset’s value by assuming the “true” value of any coin in circulation is the last price at which it is transferred on the blockchain.

Given that the last transaction of any coin would have likely been the last time it changed hands, the price at its time would act as its current cost basis. As such, the realized cap essentially sums up the cost basis of every token in the circulating supply.

Therefore, one way to view the model is as a measure of the total amount of capital the investors have put into the asset. In contrast, the market cap measures the value holders are carrying.

Since the MVRV ratio compares these two models, its value can tell whether Bitcoin investors hold more or less than their total initial investment.

Historically, when investors have been in high profits, tops have become probable to form, as the risk of profit-taking can spike in such periods. On the other hand, a dominance of losses could lead to bottom formations as selling pressure runs out in the market.

Based on these facts, Santiment has defined an “opportunity” and “danger” zone model for altcoins. The chart below shows how the market currently looks from the perspective of this MVRV model.

Bitcoin MVRV Ratio

Under this model, when the MVRV divergence for any asset on some timeframe is higher than 1, the coin is considered to be inside the bullish opportunity zone. Similarly, if it is less than -1, it suggests it’s in the bearish danger zone.

The chart shows that MVRV divergence for a large part of the market is in the opportunity zone right now. As the analytics firm explains,

Over 85% of assets we track are in a historic opportunity zone when calculating the market value to realized value (MVRV) of wallets’ collective returns over 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month cycles.

Thus, if the model is to go by, now may be the time to go around altcoin shopping.

ETH Price

Ethereum, the largest among the altcoins, has observed a 3% surge over the past week, which has taken its price to $3,150.

BNB Price Chart

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Bitcoin Forms Death Cross & TD-9 Sell Signal: Brace For Impact?

An analyst has explained how Bitcoin is forming both a death cross and TD sell signal, which may lead to potential dips in these targets.

Bitcoin Looking In Trouble As 12-Hour Chart Forms Two Bearish Signals

In a new post on X, analyst Ali discussed two signals that have recently formed in Bitcoin’s 12-hour chart. The first of these is a “death cross,” which occurs when an asset’s short-term simple moving average (SMA) dips below its long-term SMA.

Regarding the death cross, the 50-day and 100-day SMAs make up for the short-term and long-term trend lines. Historically, such formations have been considered bearish signals, with the price potentially suffering once the pattern is confirmed.

The other signal that has appeared for the cryptocurrency involves the Tom Demark (TD) Sequential. This indicator is popularly used for finding locations of probable tops and bottoms in any asset’s price.

The TD Sequential has two phases: the “setup” and “countdown.” The first phase, the setup, is said to be complete once the asset has gone through nine candles of the same polarity. After these nine candles, the price may have reached a likely reversal point.

Naturally, if the candles in the setup’s formation were red, then the signal would be a buy one, while if the prevailing trend were bullish, the reversal would be towards the downside.

Once the setup is complete, the countdown phase begins. This phase works much like the setup, except that candles are counted up to thirteen instead of nine. After the countdown’s completion, the commodity may be assumed to have reached another potential top/bottom.

Now, here is the chart shared by Ali that highlights how signals about both of these technical analysis patterns have been witnessed in the 12-hour price of Bitcoin recently:

Bitcoin Death Cross & TD-9 Sell

As is visible in the graph, the 12-hour price of Bitcoin first saw a death cross form with the 50-day SMA moving under the 100-day SMA. Then, it observed the completion of a TD Sequential setup, with the indicator suggesting a reversal to the downward direction.

Since this double bearish pattern has appeared, BTC has been heading down, suggesting that these signals may already be in effect. “If BTC falls below $63,300, brace for possible dives to $61,000 or even $59,000,” says the analyst.

From the current price of the cryptocurrency, a potential drawdown to the first of these targets would mean a decline of 4.6%, while one to the latter level would suggest a drop of nearly 8%.

BTC Price

So far, Bitcoin has managed to prevent falls under the $63,300 target listed by the analyst, as it currently floats around $64,000.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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Bitcoin Whales Continue Buying, Now Hold 25.16% Of All Supply

On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin whales’ holdings have grown to 25.16% of the entire supply, and their net accumulation has continued recently.

Bitcoin Investors With 1,000 To 10,000 BTC Have Continued To Buy Recently

According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, the BTC whales have accumulated more than 266,000 BTC since the start of the year. The indicator of interest here is the “Supply Distribution,” which keeps track of the percentage of the total circulating Bitcoin supply that the various wallet groups are holding right now.

The addresses are divided into these cohorts based on the number of coins they currently have in their balance. The 10 to 100 coins group, for example, includes all wallets that own at least 10 and, at most, 100 BTC.

The Supply Distribution sums up the amount that investors belonging to a particular group as a whole are carrying and calculates what percentage of the supply they contribute.

The 1,000 to 10,000 BTC cohort is of interest in the current discussion. At the current exchange rate, the lower limit for this cohort is $65 million, while the upper one is $650 million.

Clearly, the investors belonging to the group are quite massive, and as such, they are popularly known as “whales.” As the whales can quickly move large amounts, they have the potential to influence the market. Due to this, their behavior can be worth watching.

There are whales beyond this cohort’s 10,000 BTC upper limit as well, but at such massive scales, entities like exchanges also start coming into play, who aren’t exactly normal investors.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Supply Distribution for the 1,000 to 10,000 coins group over the last few months:

Bitcoin Whale & Sentiment

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Supply Distribution for this key investor group has observed a net rise over the year 2024 so far. The whales have bought 266,000 BTC ($17.2 billion) over this period.

However, this accumulation hasn’t been consistent. As is visible in the chart, the whales sold into the rally that would eventually lead to the asset’s new all-time high, and they bought back in once the drawdown was over.

As BTC has consolidated, so has its supply. Still, the latest change in the metric has been towards the upside, implying that these humongous holders are perhaps backing the current recovery push.

Following the latest accumulation, the 1,000 to 10,000 coins group holds 25.16% of the supply, which means that more than a quarter of all Bitcoin in circulation is sitting in the wallets of these large investors.

While whale buying is bullish, the current investor sentiment may not be so. As the data for the “Weighted Sentiment” metric attached by Santiment in the chart suggests, investors are currently showing FOMO towards the asset.

Historically, Bitcoin has tended to move against the majority’s expectations, so FUD/fear has been ideal for uptrends to start. FOMO/greed, on the other hand, has been where tops have become probable.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $64,700, up more than 7% over the past week.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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Newbie Bitcoin Whales Hold 2x As Much As Veterans: What’s Behind This Trend?

On-chain data shows the new whale entrants in the Bitcoin market now hold almost twice as much as the veterans. Here’s what could be behind this shift.

Bitcoin Newbie Whale Holdings Have Been Rapidly Growing Recently

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed about how the holdings of the new whales compares against the old ones in the market right now.

The on-chain indicator of interest here is the “Realized Cap,” which, in short, keeps track of the total amount of capital that the investors have used to purchase their Bitcoin.

This capitalization model is in contrast to the usual market cap, which simply measures the total value that the holders as a whole are carrying based on the current spot price.

In the context of the current topic, the Realized Cap of the entire market isn’t of interest, but rather specifically that of two segments: the short-term holder whales and long-term holder whales.

Whales are defined as entities on the network who are holding at least 1,000 BTC in their balance. At the current exchange rate, this amount is worth $66.6 million, so the whales are clearly quite massive holders. Because of these large holdings, these investors can hold some influence in the market.

Based on holding time, the whales can be subdivided into two categories. The short-term holder (STH) whales are those who acquired their coins within the past 155 days, while the long-term holder (LTH) whales have been holding since longer than this timespan.

Now, here is the chart shared by Ju that reveals the Realized Cap breakdown between these two Bitcoin whale cohorts:

Bitcoin Realized Cap

As is visible in the above graph, the Realized Cap of the STH whales has historically not been too different from that of the LTH whales, but that appears to have changed recently.

The metric has pulled away for these new whales this year with some very sharp growth, as its value has now reached the $110.6 billion mark. This means that the STH whales have collectively bought their coins at an initial investment of a whopping $110.6 billion.

The Realized Cap of the LTH whales, on the other hand, has continued its usual trajectory, floating around $66.9 billion currently. This means that there is now a massive gap between the indicator for these two cohorts.

But what’s the reason behind the sudden emergence of this brand-new trend? As mentioned before, the STH cutoff stands at 155 days, which means that the Realized Cap of the STH whales would signify the total value of the purchases made by the whales over the last five months.

In the past five months, there has been one event in particular that has stood out, which has also never been present in any of the prior cycles: the approval of the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The spot ETFs provide an alternative mode of investment into the asset through a means that’s familiar to traditional investors. These funds have been bringing in some unprecedented demand into BTC and as their holdings also fall under the 155 days mark, they would count as STH whales.

Bitcoin has also been rallying this year, so all this new investment would have had to purchase at relatively high prices, thus causing the Realized Cap, which correlates to direct capital flows, to inflate even further.

BTC Price

Bitcoin is now trading at $66,400 after witnessing a surge of more than 6% over the past week.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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Is The Bitcoin Top Already Here? This Historical Pattern Says So

A historical pattern currently forming in a Bitcoin on-chain indicator could suggest that a top may be near for the asset, if not already in.

Bitcoin SOPR Ratio Is Forming A Historical Top Pattern Right Now

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed about a pattern regarding the SOPR Ratio. The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us whether the Bitcoin investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss right now.

When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means that profit-selling is dominant in the market currently. On the other hand, the metric being under the threshold suggests the average holder is moving coins at some net loss.

In the context of the current topic, the SOPR itself isn’t of interest; rather, it is a different version called the SOPR Ratio. The name may be a bit confusing as SOPR already contains a “ratio,” but the latter ratio here corresponds to the fact that this indicator compares the SOPR of two Bitcoin cohorts: the long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs).

These investor groups make up for the two main divisions of the BTC market done based on holding time, with 155 days being the cutoff between the two. The STHs are those who bought within the past 155 days, while the LTHs include the HODLers carrying coins for longer than this timespan.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin SOPR Ratio over the history of the cryptocurrency:

Bitcoin SOPR Ratio

As displayed in the above graph, the 7-day MA Bitcoin SOPR Ratio had been heading up throughout 2023 and early parts of 2024, but recently, the metric has hit a top and reversed its direction. Whenever the SOPR Ratio is higher than 1, it means the LTHs, who are generally known to be resolute hands, are participating in a higher degree of profit-taking than the STHs.

It would appear that as BTC had observed its rally and approached a new all-time high (ATH), these diamond hands had started harvesting some of the gains they had earned over their long holding time. And once the price set a new ATH, these investors participated in peak profit-taking. Since then, their profit-selling has been dropping off, although they are still harvesting notably higher gains than the STHs.

In the chart, the analyst highlights how this pattern has been repeated at different points in the asset’s history. While the scale of the peak LTH profit-taking has been heading down over the cycles, it’s still true that the metric’s top has coincided with tops in the price during each of them.

As the line drawn by the quant suggests, it’s possible that the latest peak in the metric may have in fact been the top for this cycle. This is only, however, assuming that the pattern of diminishing returns in the indicator holds to the exact degree judged by the line.

It’s possible that the peak will still be higher than the current levels, while at the same time being lower than the previous cycle’s peak, thus still being in-line with the historical Bitcoin pattern.

Whatever the case be, though, the fact that the SOPR ratio has apparently hit a top could still be a bearish signal, if only in the short term.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has been making some steady recovery over the last few days as its price has now surged back above $66,100.

Bitcoin Price Chart