November To Witness Over $450M In Token Unlocks: Aptos And Avalanche Take The Lead

The crypto market is set to experience significant token unlocks in November, with projects such as Aptos (APT), Avalanche (AVAX), and Hashflow (HFT) leading the way.

These unlocks are anticipated to release more than $320 million worth of tokens, contributing to the overall $450 million set to enter circulating supplies in the crypto market this month.

It is worth noting that such substantial releases could have immediate and long-term effects on both the price and availability of these digital assets.

Aptos And Top Players In November’s Token Release

Token unlocks are events where previously locked tokens become available for trading, often increasing a project’s circulating supply. These events are critical moments for projects, as they can signal maturation and a new phase of market dynamics. 

Aptos, a Layer 1 blockchain created by former Meta executives, is expected to have the most significant token unlock by value, releasing 24.8 million APT tokens, currently representing about $165.6 million at today’s price.

Aptos’s upcoming unlock on November 12 is not just substantial in value but also notable for its distribution, with core contributors, investors, the community, and the Aptos Foundation all set to receive portions of the release.

Meanwhile, Avalanche, another Layer 1 blockchain, is preparing for its considerable token unlock later in the month on November 24, which will see 9.54 million AVAX tokens (valued at approximately $99.3 million at today’s price) released, marking 2.7% of its circulating supply.

Hashflow, a multi-chain decentralized exchange, is slated to have the largest token release by circulating supply percentage. It is poised to unlock 160.38 million HFT tokens, approximately 73.9% of its circulating supply, on November 7, injecting roughly $42 million into the market.

The distribution of these tokens will span early investors, ecosystem development, the core team, and community rewards, adding another layer to the economic activities of the project.

Other Notable November Token Unlocks

Other projects like Optimism (OP), ApeCoin (APE), and Sui (SUI) are also scheduled for significant token unlocks this November. However, they pale in comparison to the top three in terms of value. Optimism is set to unlock 24.16 million OP tokens worth $32.4 million.

Apecoin (APE) is poised for an unlock of 15.60 million APE tokens worth $19.5 million, and SUI is to unlock 34.62 million tokens valued at $14.6 million at today’s market prices.

Each unlock carries potential implications for the broader crypto market, as they may affect liquidity, trading volume, and investor sentiment. Furthermore, out of these six tokens above set to unlock this month, Aptos and Avalanche are the top gainers.

Aptos (APT) price chart from TradingView

Currently, both assets are up 38% and 22%, respectively, in the past 14 days. APT trades at $6.82, down by 2% over the past 24 hours, while AVAX trades at $11.02, down by 2.7% over the same period, at the time of writing.

Featured image from Unspkash, Chart from TradingView

Brace For Impact As $200 Million In Crypto Is Being Unlocked In October

In a sudden turn of events for what is usually expected to be a bullish month for the crypto industry, a series of token unlocks set to take place this month is now threatening this bullish momentum. With around $200 million in various altcoins expected to flood the open market, the current market rally may end up being short-lived.

$200 Million In Crypto Being Unlocked

Token tracking website Token Unlocks has revealed that around $200 million in various cryptocurrencies are being unlocked at various intervals through the course of this year. The tokens being unlocked range from SUI to Optimism to Aptos’s APT, among others.

A screenshot shared by Wu Blockchain on X (formerly Twitter) showed a list of tokens expecting large crypto unlocks in October, as well as the percentage of supply they represent and their equivalent dollar value. The first on the list is SUI.

SUI’s upcoming token unlock is by no means the largest on the list. But it is significant and will be the first to take place this month. Set to happen on October 3, 34.62 million SUI tokens (4.37% of supply) worth $17.11 million will flow into the open market.

Following this just a couple of days later on October 7 is the Immutable X (IMX) token unlock. This unlock will see another 1.55% of the total supply (18.08 million tokens) worth $10.91 million unlocked. Aptos follows five days later on October 12 with 4.54 million APT tokens accounting for 1.91% of supply and worth $25.81 million.

ApeCoin’s unlock of 15.6 million tokens will then take place on October 17. This represents 4.23% of supply and is worth $19.50 million; the third-lowest of the bunch.

The highest on the list in terms of dollar figures is the Axie Infinity token unlock. This crypto unlock will happen toward the end of the month on October 20, with 15.13 million tokens representing 11.50% of the total AXS supply. The dollar value of these tokens is $71.24 million going by current prices.

Last but not least, is another Optimism OP token unlock. It is slated for October 30 and 24.16 million tokens, similar to previous unlocks, will be brought into circulation. This translates to 3.03% of supply with a dollar value of $35.03 million.

In total, 31 crypto projects have scheduled token unlocks for the month of October. Other notable but smaller unlocks include DYDX’s $4.51 million unlock, CYBER’s $6.87 million unlock, FLOW’s $3.44 million unlock, and Space ID’s $3.98 million token unlock.

Crypto total market cap chart from Tradingview.com (Token Unlock)

Optimism (OP) Climbs 6% A Day As Crypto Market Rebounds, What’s Next?

Optimism (OP) has posted notable gains today, October 2, trading at $1.45, with a 5% increase in the last 24 hours. Furthermore, its price has gained 15% in the last seven days. 

OP’s rise coincides with the improvement in the general crypto market, which showed a remarkable recovery. However, whether OP will sustain the ongoing rally remains to be seen. But a close look at a few technical indicators may provide vital insights into its next price moves. 

OP Approaches Overbought Zone As Buyers Sustain Rally

OP continues to show positive price momentum as buyers dominate the market. Also, it has formed a fifth consecutive candle on the daily chart, confirming active accumulation by traders. Its rally became prominent on September 29, when it broke above the Donchian Channel (DC) median band.

OP flipped the $1.41 resistance level to support today and edges closer to the upper band of the Donchian Channel towards the $2.50 resistance level. If the buyers sustain the rally above the $1.50 resistance, OP will likely move into the overbought zone. 

Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has risen above its signal line, displaying a strong buy signal. Also, the Histogram bars are green, confirming that the buyers are still active. More so, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator displays a value of 64.2 and is rising to the overbought region of 70. 

Based on these indicators, OP will likely enter the overbought zone in the coming days, implying that accumulation will continue. However, traders should look out for bearish resistance at the $1.50 level that could serve as a potential entry point for sellers. 

OPUSD price chart

What Could Be Behind OP’s Recent Gains?

Besides the general recovery in the crypto market, Optimism records exciting developments in its ecosystem. One notable change is a September 29, 2023, proposal to change Optimism’s security model. 

According to the proposal, the OP team aims to hand over the admin key for the OP Mainnet to public and decentralized participants. These participants will be the Security Council held accountable for Optimism’s Governance. 

Although this proposal awaits approval, it creates engagement in the OP ecosystem, thus increasing investor interest and activity. And this increased activity exerts higher buy pressure on the token. 

Furthermore, the Optimism Superchain is another innovation driving ecosystem growth. According to blockchain data provider Covalent, the Superchain is an interlinked blockchain network of individual chains tagged “OP chains.” 

Interestingly, builders can use the Superchain to engage in on-chain development. However, they must comply with the Law of Chains, a set of community rules on how teams support public goods and decentralization. 

The OP Mainnet is the first member of the Superchain. Again, it has recorded increased daily active addresses, higher than Arbitrum, which is declining in on-chain activity. 

BuildOnBase, created by Coinbase, is the second member of the Superchain, aiming to attract billions of users. BuildOnBase ranked as one of the best-performing chains in 2023 and the fastest L2 to reach 100,000 users in 56 days. 

These developments are likely driving the growth in the Optimism ecosystem, evident in its recent price surge. 

Upcoming Optimism Unlock Threatens To Drag OP Below $1

The Optimism native token OP is now in the line of fire with millions of tokens set to be released into circulation. This threatens the altcoin’s price which is already on a downward spiral after carrying out its 3rd airdrop.

Optimism Set To Unlock 24 Million Tokens

In the latest iteration of its token unlock events, the Optimism network is looking at over 24 million tokens being unlocked and brought into circulation. On-chain token tracking website Token Unlocks reports that the 24.16 million token is worth approximately $30.7 million at current prices.

The token unlock event will take place on September 30, which is less than four days from the time of writing. This will see the equivalent of 3.03% of the total OP supply being released into circulation at once.

Optimism OP unlock

This is coming just one month after the network locked an equivalent amount on August 30. Just like the August unlock, the 24.16 million tokens are allocated to two groups. 12.75 million tokens worth $16.19 million are going to Core Contributors and 11.41 million tokens worth $14.49 million will go to Investors.

The Optimism unlock event is the largest of the over $54 million in token unlocks expected to happen over the next seven days. Other notable unlocks include SUI unlocking 4.9% of supply worth $16.92 million and Yield Guild Games (YGG) unlocking 6.7% of supply worth $2.55 million.

Gauging The Impact on OP Price

A good way to figure out how the OP price might react is to look at historical performance during similar events. In the case of the OP price, there is no need to look too far back as the last token unlock event happened only a month ago.

On August 30, Optimism unlocked an identical number of tokens and the price reacted negatively to this new supply. OP initially held tight around the $1.5 mark but once the unlock was completed, the price of the token nosedived, dropping from $1.5 to $1.3 in the span of two days.

This shows that token unlocks, especially with the size of the upcoming Optimism unlock, are inherently bearish for price. If the historical pattern holds, then the OP price could easily succumb to the bears and threaten the $1 mark. At the very least, the impact of this new supply could lead to a 10% decline, which would put the OP price just above $1.1.

Even now, OP is already feeling the impact of the incoming bearish sentiment. Over the last week, the price has plummeted more than 10%, bringing it below the $1.3 resistance.

Optimism (OP) price chart from Tradingview.com (token unlock)

NEAR Protocol’s Daily Active Addresses Spike, Will Prices Follow?

In the past month, there have been more daily active addresses on the NEAR Protocol than in Ethereum and its layer-2 protocols, including Arbitrum and OP Mainnet, Artemis data from September 25 reveals.

Artemis, an institutional data platform for digital assets, shows that the number of daily active addresses on NEAR Protocol has been consistently above the 400,000 level in September. 

Daily Active Addresses On NEAR Protocol Surging

Looking closer at the data confirms that the number of daily active addresses on Ethereum, the pioneer smart contract platform that hosts most decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible token (NFT) activity, has been dropping.

To illustrate, the number of daily active on Ethereum rose above 1 million in mid-September but has since more than halved to below 400,000. The same trend can be seen in Arbitrum, which dropped from around 200,000 in late June to 150,000 when writing on September 25.

Daily active addresses| Source: Artemis

During this time, NEAR Protocol’s daily active addresses have rapidly spiked from around 40,000 in late June to above 400,000, outperforming Ethereum in this metric. With rising daily active addresses, there has been a spike in daily transactions over the past month. According to trackers, the NEAR Protocol processes more transactions than Ethereum.

Daily transactions| Source: Artemis

Public ledgers like NEAR Protocol and Ethereum depend on a community of users who actively transact—moving value or running protocols—or validators- to secure the network. However, the number of daily active addresses can provide valuable insights into the level of adoption, user engagement, and the network’s overall health.

Besides user engagement, rising daily active addresses might also point to changing market sentiment, which could significantly impact prices.  

Bears In Control As DEX Trading Volume Remains Relatively Stable

When writing, NEAR, the native token of the NEAR Protocol, is trading at around 2023 lows. Changing hands at $1.107, the coin is down 61% from 2023 highs and remains under pressure.

The candlestick arrangement in the daily chart points to consolidation and stability above the primary resistance level at $1. Bears have the upper hand if prices remain below $1.23, a critical resistance level marking the August 17 highs.

NEAR price on September 25| Source: NEARUSDT on Binance, TradingView

As evidence shows, the network activity and price action diverge. Although the transaction count also rose, the number of unique addresses interacting with NEAR Protocol decentralized exchanges has mostly been stable. Looking at the numbers, DEX volume on the platform is significantly lower than those registered in Ethereum and its popular layer-2 platforms.

Optimism To Sell 116 Million OP Tokens Via Private Sale: Will The Price React?

Optimism has revealed its plans to sell 116 million OP tokens to seven private buyers. According to the update, this sale is for treasury management tokens. 

Based on current prices, this sale will transfer approximately $159 million worth of OP tokens to the buyers. Given the sheer amount of the sale, some traders believe it will likely cause a decline in OP’s price.

Optimism Announces Sale OF 116 Million OP Tokens Following Third Airdrop Event 

In detail, Optimism posted a community update on September 20 on selling approximately 116 million OP tokens. The tokens are from the unallocated portion of the OP Token treasury, and these tokens are part of the Foundation’s original working budget of 30% of the initial OP supply.

According to the update, the tokens are subject to a two-year lockup. During the lockup period, the purchasers can delegate the tokens to third parties for on-chain governance.

Also, the announcement stated that from September 20, several transactions will take place with the released tokens. It noted that the transactions are pre-planned. 

It bears mentioning that this token sale comes a few days after Optimism announced its third OP airdrop to reward community members for participation in on-chain governance. Optimism released over 19 million OP tokens to over 31,000 unique addresses. 

Meanwhile, the OP community received the announcement with mixed reactions, with one user expressing disappointment. He expressed concerns that the token sale will increase Optimism’s circulating supply, impacting the price.

Optimism’s Private Token Sale: Will It Affect OP’s Price?

Some observers have expressed concern that the sale will affect OP’s price negatively, as the buyers may dump their tokens. However, there are a few reasons why this is unlikely to happen.

Firstly, the sale is private, meaning the buyers are not required to disclose their identities or intentions for the tokens. Therefore, it makes it difficult for traders to anticipate the buyers’ actions.

Secondly, the tokens are from the OP treasury’s unallocated portion and are not part of the circulating supply. It means that the sale will have a minimal impact on the availability of OP on the open market.

Furthermore, the tokens are subject to a two-year lockup period. The lockup prevents buyers from selling them on secondary markets until at least 2025, reducing the likelihood of a sell-off that could depress price.

Overall, Optimism can fund its development by raising capital from investors without relying on the public. Such action could lead to increased demand for OP from bullish investors on the project’s long-term prospects.

OPUSD price chart

Historical Data Suggests Private Sales Could Boost OP Price

Other projects have held similar private sales in the past. Recall that Polygon raised $450 million last year in a private token sale led by Sequoia Capital India. Also, in 2021, Arbitrum raised $120 million in a private token sale led by Lightspeed Venture Partners.

In both of these cases, the private token sales positively impacted the price of the respective tokens. The Polygon MATIC’s price increased by over 50% in the two weeks following the announcement of the private sale. 

Similarly, the price of AAVE increased by 20% in the two weeks following Arbitrum’s private sale announcement.

Therefore, based on this historical precedent, the private sale could benefit OP in the long run. However, note that the cryptocurrency market is volatile, and OP’s price is not guaranteed to increase.