Posted on

Next Bitcoin Peak: Why It Could Still Be 2 Years Away

Bitcoin’s last all-time high was $69,000 in November 2021; as of September 2023, it’s been 22 months since that peak. While estimating what price Bitcoin could reach next can be very useful, it’s also important to estimate when a new peak could occur.

History suggests this may still be some time away, as analysis shows that the next Bitcoin peak could arise around the end of 2025.

Previous Cycles

A specific pattern seems to occur when looking at previous tops and bottoms. The three previous bottoms, January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022, were all exactly 47 months apart. Similarly, the previous three tops, November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021, are either 49 or 47 months apart.

Market participants could anticipate the next Bitcoin peak around October-December 2025 if this pattern persists. The subsequent bottom could then occur around October 2026.

This phenomenon of tops and bottoms forming cyclically is a widely held belief in investing. Both stock markets and economies are believed to experience periods of expansion, marked by increased economic activity and rising stock market prices, and contraction, during which the stock market prices decline, and economic growth slows.

What’s particularly interesting about Bitcoin is its consistent pattern of forming its tops and bottoms roughly every four years. The ‘halving theory’ is a popular explanation for this observed pattern.

The Halving Theory

Approximately every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a ‘halving’ event, during which the reward for mining new blocks (i.e. the new supply of Bitcoin) is halved. This mechanism ensures the scarcity of Bitcoin, which is capped at a maximum supply of 21 million coins. A simple economic principle suggests that prices rise when supply drops while demand stays constant or grows.

Historically, Bitcoin has reached a new peak a year after each halving. Given that the next halving is projected to be in April 2024, it aligns with the chart above, showing the next Bitcoin peak to be around the end of 2025.

Next Bitcoin Peak – Will This Time Be Different?

While historical data points provide valuable insights into the potential future performance of an asset, it’s crucial to understand that history does not always exactly repeat itself – it often rhymes. This suggests that while certain patterns from the past might re-emerge, they don’t necessarily play out in the same way.

Various factors, such as technological advances, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory changes, can introduce differences.

In the current market scenario, Bitcoin is navigating through a high-inflation and high-interest-rate environment for the first time. These conditions can lower market liquidity as investors might have reduced capital available for investment.

Additionally, faced with such an environment, many investors could turn to savings or bonds, which may present more attractive and stable returns than other assets.

Predycto is the author of a cryptocurrency newsletter. Sign up for free. Follow @Predycto on Twitter.

Posted on

Bitcoin Price Taps $28,000 On Grayscale Ruling, Soaring Stock Market

Bitcoin price has thus far made a 7% intraday move following news that a US court ruled in favor of Grayscale against the SEC. At the same time, the stock market is surging.

Could a perfect storm for the top cryptocurrency by market cap be building?

Back At $28,000: Grayscale Court Ruling Causes BTC To Bounce

In an asset class as volatile as crypto, prices — and moods — can change in a flash. That’s exactly what we’ve witnessed on a small scale today, moments after news broke that a US court is forcing the SEC to reconsider Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF.

The news is significant because not only does it increase the chance Grayscale can move ahead with an ETF, but it also improves the likelihood of other ETFs like
BlackRock getting the green light.

Green is definitely the color of the day, with BTCUSD climbing back to $28,000 per coin on the heels of the news.

BTCUSD_2023-08-29_13-20-53

Bitcoin Price Could Benefit From A New Stock Market High

It isn’t just crypto getting a major boost today. US stock indexes are also soaring today. The S&P 500 is up over 1.2%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq over 1.88%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 0.63%. The latest bounce in stocks puts traditional markets within striking distance of a new all-time high.

This is important because if Bitcoin price is already turning bullish in the wake of the Grayscale news, then a simultaneous stock market all-time high could cause crypto to go ballistic.

SPX_2023-08-29_13-29-07

Cryptocurrencies have a ton of catching up to do relative to the stock market. Furthermore, back in 2020, after the S&P 500 made a new all-time high, Bitcoin price followed in the weeks to come and set a record of its own. Is this what we can expect if the stock market sets new record highs, and a slew of ETFs are approved?

Posted on

Bitcoin Bullish Uptrend Remains Unbroken, Here’s Why

Bitcoin price is currently trading at slightly above $26,000 per coin, but is still reeling after last week’s 10% single day selloff. The situation looks dire for crypto bulls who were hoping for a more significant recovery to begin after such prolonged sideways.

However, the bullish market structure remains unbroken. Let’s take a closer look at what exactly this means and why the 2023 uptrend is still intact.

Recapping Recent BTCUSD Volatility

After a solid start to 2023 – certainly a year that’s been kinder to the king of cryptocurrency than 2022 – BTCUSD has bears celebrating and bulls kicking their wounds. Several months of sideways price action and dwindling volatility ended with a bang as expected, but the move was down and not what bulls had been hoping for.

A sharp, 10% intraday selloff caused more long liquidations than the FTX collapse, and sent the Relative Strength Index immediately into the most oversold territory in all of 2023. But even with all the carnage, Bitcoin remains in a near-term uptrend with a bullish market structure.

bitcoin bullish uptrend

Why Bitcoin Price Remains In A Structural Uptrend

By pure definition, an uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows. Which is precisely what is still happening in BTCUSD price action throughout 2023. Currently, the FTX collapse in November 2022 was the local “low” of the downtrend. In contrast, a downtrend is a series of lower lows and lower highs. Once a new high was made in early 2023 and then a higher low was put in, the downtrend was considered over.

The recent 2023 uptrend in Bitcoin hasn’t yet made a lower low after a lower high. Even a possible lower low beyond here is still without a proper lower high. This means that the top cryptocurrency by market cap could potentially bounce here, or even lower, and still maintain an overall bullish market structure.

A lower low would still be important, potentially warning that the market structure is turning back bearish. If a lower low happens below the $25,000 low from June 2023, then it will be all eyes on if a lower high is to follow.

The 2023 uptrend in Bitcoin has been muted compared to what the cryptocurrency is capable of. BTCUSD is up roughly 50% during the first roughly nine months of the year. The final nine months of 2020, for example, had over 900% ROI by comparison. Could this type of returns soon be on the way? Or will the cryptocurrency market fall back into the clutches of bears?

This chart originally appeared in Issue #18 of CoinChartist VIP. Subscribe for free.

Posted on

Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2023, 2024, 2025, 2030 and Beyond

Bitcoin has come a long way since its inception in 2009. From being worth less than a penny initially, it has seen massive growth over the years with some dramatic ups and downs. Today, Bitcoin is emerging as a major alternative asset class and its future valuation prospects remain optimistic.

This comprehensive guide takes a data-driven approach to analyze factors affecting Bitcoin prices and makes educated projections about its potential highs and lows in the short, medium and long-term timeframes. With cryptocurrencies gaining mainstream traction, the report aims to provide clarity to investors on what lies ahead for Bitcoin prices based on historical patterns and developments. 

What is Bitcoin (BTC)?

Bitcoin is the first and most popular cryptocurrency in the world. It was created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto, who published the Bitcoin whitepaper and developed the Bitcoin protocol.

Bitcoin introduced blockchain technology to the world. The Bitcoin blockchain is a public ledger that records all Bitcoin transactions ever made. It is decentralized, meaning no single entity controls it. The blockchain is maintained by a global network of computers known as Bitcoin miners.

Key attributes of Bitcoin include:

Decentralized

No central authority controls Bitcoin. It is maintained by a distributed network of users.

Limited supply

Only 21 million Bitcoins will ever exist. This scarcity gives Bitcoin value.

Pseudonymous

Bitcoin addresses are not linked to real-world identities by default, giving users privacy.

Secure

Bitcoin uses cryptography and the blockchain to ensure the security of payments and ownership records.

Divisible

One Bitcoin can be divided into 100 million smaller units called satoshis, allowing small transactions.

Permissionless

Anyone can use Bitcoin without the need for permission from authorities.

These attributes make Bitcoin unique compared to traditional fiat currencies and a promising digital asset for investment.

Factors Influencing Bitcoin Price

Many factors can affect the price of Bitcoin, leading to volatility. Some major factors include:

Supply and Demand

Basic economic theory states that when demand increases while supply remains constant, price goes up. As more investors and institutions adopt Bitcoin, demand rises. But since new Bitcoins are mined at a fixed rate, supply remains steady, driving prices up.

Media Hype and Public Sentiment

Positive or negative media coverage and public sentiment can influence demand and price. For example, Elon Musk’s tweets on Bitcoin often lead to price swings based on his views.

Major Protocol Changes and Upgrades

Major Bitcoin developments like the SegWit upgrade or Lightning Network adoption can improve Bitcoin’s capabilities and affect price.

Regulations and Legal Status

Regulatory crackdowns or acceptance of Bitcoin in different countries impacts price as it affects demand.

Whales and Institutional Investors

“Whales” – entities holding large amounts of Bitcoin – can manipulate prices when they buy or sell. Increased institutional investment also drives up prices through increased demand.

Security Breaches and Scandals

Security issues with exchanges and wallets like the Mt.Gox hack or malicious business practices like the FTX collapse can erode investor confidence and depress prices.

Macroeconomic Conditions

Economic instability and currency devaluations motivate investors to buy Bitcoin as a hedge, boosting its price. However, it has struggled in a hawkish Fed environment and amidst rate hikes.

Bitcoin Price Performance in the Past

Looking at past price performance can provide insights into long-term trends and help predict future prices. Let’s take a walk down BTC memory lane.

The Early Days – Volatility and Growth (2009-2013)

BTCUSD_2023-08-25_09-38-11

When Bitcoin launched in 2009, it was practically worthless. In 2010, Bitcoin went from $0 to $0.39 and was extremely volatile in its early days.

By early 2011, it achieved parity with the US dollar, hitting $1.00 in February 2011. In the same year, it reached $10 and then $30. This early volatility was attributed to insufficient liquidity, scarcity due to the low Bitcoin supply, and lack of exchange infrastructure.

In mid-2011, Bitcoin fell from around $30 to $2 after a series of exchange hacks and thefts shook investor confidence. It took over a year to reach $10 again.

2012 saw gradual gains up to $12 but also wild fluctuations between $7-$15. In 2013, Bitcoin entered a bull run from $12 to over $1,100 driven by increasing media coverage and adoption in the dark web.

But it ended the year around $700 following a China ban on financial institutions and payment processors dealing with Bitcoin. This cycle of rapid gains and dramatic crashes would come to define Bitcoin price performance.

The 2014-2016 Bear Market

BTCUSD_2023-08-25_09-40-33

2014 kicked off with the collapse of Mt.Gox, then the largest Bitcoin exchange, after a series of hacks. This erased most gains from 2013 and caused Bitcoin to fall from around $850 to below $350.

For the next two years, Bitcoin hovered in the $200-$300 range. Increased regulation and lack of institutional interest kept mainstream adoption low during this period. Prices were relatively stable compared to past volatility.

2017 – The Bull Run and Mainstream Mania

BTCUSD_2023-08-25_09-47-54

2017 marked Bitcoin’s entry into mainstream awareness and a massive growth in price to nearly $20,000.

Several factors drove this rally:

  • Growing media and investment bank coverage calling Bitcoin “digital gold”
  • Increased adoption in countries facing currency crises like Venezuela and Zimbabwe
  • Proposals for Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) drew investor attention
  • Launch of Bitcoin futures trading on major exchanges like CME and CBOE lent legitimacy
  • Large institutional investments – U.S billionaire Michael Novogratz invested $500M in Bitcoin in 2017

Demand rose as Bitcoin went from being an obscure digital asset to a household name. But by January 2018, Bitcoin had lost over 60% from its peak following regulatory measures and other factors leading to a cool down from its previously overheated state.

2018-2020 – The Crypto Winter and Maturation

BTCUSD_2023-08-25_09-41-27Bitcoin spent much of 2018 in a bear market following the 2017 rally, trading in the $3,000-$6,000 range.

Increased regulatory scrutiny, exchange hacks, and coin scams contributed to falling prices. But this period also saw the maturation of Bitcoin with developments including:

  • Lightning Network launch – enabled fast, cheap Bitcoin micropayments
  • Increased mainstream institutional investment from firms like Fidelity and US Bank
  • Bitcoin futures added on Bakkt, Nasdaq exchanges
  • Countries like Japan recognized Bitcoin as legal tender

These developments likely prevented further drops. By mid-2019, Bitcoin recovered to the $10k-$11k range.

The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting economic crisis in 2020 proved Bitcoin’s value as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Stimulus spending eroded fiat savings while Bitcoin held its value.

Growing institutional interest like Microstrategy’s $500M Bitcoin purchase helped take prices past 2017 highs, eventually reaching an all-time high of around $68,000 in 2021.

2021-2022 – Twin Peaks and Recession Risk 

BTCUSD_2023-08-25_09-41-59Bitcoin price made not one, but two new highs in 2021. The second high failed to move significantly past the first high, catching investors off-guard who had anticipated BTC reaching $100,000 or more. 

Instead, Bitcoin crashed throughout 2022 as the US Federal Reserve launched its QT program and began raising interest rates to fight back against inflation. The situation was worsened by the implosion of several crypto businesses, including FTX. Eventually, Bitcoin reached a local low of $15,800 in November 2022. 

How is Bitcoin Doing Now in 2023?

BTCUSD_2023-08-25_09-43-06

Bitcoin price is doing its best to recovery from the crypto market carnage of 2022. The US Federal Reserve continues to raise rates to record levels, and the US SEC is cracking down on the rest of the crypto industry, making it harder for Bitcoin to regain its footing.

Despite the challenges, many institutions are eying launching Bitcoin EFTs, which could create a bullish narrative that drives prices higher. In the meantime, BTC is correcting after spending the majority of 2023 in a short-term uptrend. The question remains: Is Bitcoin falling back into a bear market, or will the short-term uptrend roll into a more meaningful mid-term uptrend?

Short-Term Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2023

bitcoin price prediction 2023

In the short-term, as in before the end of 2023, there are primarily three options from a technical standpoint. The bullish scenario is based on Elliott Wave Principle, and points to a wave 5 and a possible new all-time high this year. The bearish scenario would put Bitcoin in a further corrective pattern, targeting $6,000 per BTC.

Of course, an alternative scenario is that Bitcoin simple remains in a sideways consolidation phase for several months longer to finish out 2023. Otherwise, a Bitcoin price prediction of $160,000 in 2023 isn’t impossible given past price trajectories and percentage moved.

Medium-Term Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2024 & 2025

bitcoin price prediction 2024 2025In the medium-term, Bitcoin price forecasts are based on the four-year cycle theory that relies on the Bitcoin block reward halving to tip the tides of supply and demand in favor of price appreciation. Fundamentally over the next several years, Bitcoin should have limited downside.

Instead, Bitcoin price predictions for 2024 and 2025 point to anywhere between $100,000 to $250,000 per coin on the upside.

Long-term Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2030 and Beyond

bitcoin price prediction 2030

Predicting Bitcoin’s price in the long-term is challenging considering how new it still is. However, using a logarithmic growth curve, Bitcoin price predictions reach between $150,000 and $1 million per coin by 2030.

Further out into the future, if Bitcoin establishes itself as the leading global digital currency, it could be worth between $1 million and $10 million per coin.

Total 21 million BTC in supply would give Bitcoin a market cap of $21-$210 trillion, rivaling major assets like real estate and global broad money supply. But such valuations remain speculative. Bitcoin may also face future competition from both other cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

Bitcoin Price Predictions by Experts

Here are some Bitcoin price forecasts by noteworthy experts and analysts.

  • Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood believes that Bitcoin could hit over $1,000,000 per coin in the long term, with a “base case” of $600,000.
  • Venture capitalist Tim Draper sees Bitcoin price ultimately at more than $250,000 per BTC by the end of 2025.
    • Standard Chartered has a Bitcoin price prediction of $120,000 by the end of 2024.

FAQ: Frequently Asked Questions

Here are answers to some common questions about this Bitcoin price prediction article:

What was Bitcoin’s lowest price?

The first recorded Bitcoin transaction in 2010 valued BTC at $0.0008. Bitcoin’s lowest recent price was around $15,800 in late 2022.

What was Bitcoin’s highest price?

Bitcoin’s all-time high price was around $68,000 in November 2021. 

How high could Bitcoin realistically go?

Considering growing mainstream adoption and investment interest, Bitcoin realistically could reach $100,000-$500,000 by 2030. A $1 million+ valuation cannot be ruled out in the very long-term.

Can Bitcoin price fall to zero?

It is unlikely Bitcoin price will crash to zero given its growing adoption, finite supply, and increasing regulation. There will likely always be some demand for Bitcoin which gives it fundamental value. Anything is possible, however. 

Why is Bitcoin price so volatile?

As a new asset class, Bitcoin is still establishing itself, leading to volatility. Manipulation by “whales”, media hype, and regulatory uncertainty add to large price swings. Price should stabilize with broader adoption.

When will Bitcoin price stop fluctuating so much?

Bitcoin price volatility should reduce significantly as it becomes a mainstream asset and gains broader public adoption in 5-10 years. But some short-term fluctuations will always remain.

Will Bitcoin price rise in 2023?

Considering adoption trends and investor interest, the overall Bitcoin price trajectory appears to be upwards in 2023 despite some short-term fluctuations. 

Posted on

Bitcoin Reaches Most “Oversold” Record Since 2020: What This Means

Bitcoin price just experienced one of its fastest and sharpest corrections in over a year, dropping 10% in a matter of minutes.

The mass liquidations and panic from the selloff caused BTCUSD daily charts to reach the most oversold level since the COVID crash in early 2020.

BTC Panic-Selling Reaches Extremes Not Seen Since COVID Crash

As much as people try to fight it, investing and trading is an emotion-driven process. Few emotions cause humans to take action more urgently than those associated with fear and panic.

This is precisely why selloffs tend to be sharper and scarier than bull markets. “Bulls take the stairs, bears ride the elevator” is just one adage that symbolizes this noted market behavior.

For example, the COVID collapse in March 2020 took only a matter of days to erase 70% of Bitcoin’s price. This instance was the last time the Relative Strength Index technical indicator on the daily timeframe became this oversold.

After Bitcoin’s recently drop this week, the daily RSI is back at a similar extreme for the first time in more than three years. What isn’t clear quite yet, is if the extreme represents another ideal buying opportunity, or if this is the onset of a deeper decline.

BTCUSD_2023-08-21_09-03-46

Bitcoin Daily RSI Plunges To Most Oversold Level Since 2020

The Relative Strength Index is a momentum indicator that tells investors and traders when an asset is overbought and oversold on a relative basis. When the tool reaches extremes above 70 or below 30, it can present an opportunity to buy or sell. The RSI is now lower than the LUNA or FTX collapse, or at any point since March 2020.

During especially strong moves, however, the RSI can remain elevated for extended phases despite reaching such overheated readings. Such was the case in December 2018, the previous instance of the daily Bitcoin RSI reaching such a low.

In that case, the RSI stayed hot for two full weeks, cutting down BTCUSD price by another 40% before it was all said and done. A 40% correction in Bitcoin would take prices back to the November 2022 bottom.

If Bitcoin instead rebounds and reacts more akin to 2020, new all-time highs could be just months away. If not, a deeper reset is possible.

Posted on

The Subtle Signs A Bullish Bitcoin Trend Is Brewing

Bitcoin price remains stagnant for going on months now, with no clear trend developing and volatility in a downward spiral. However, some subtle signs are popping up that could suggest that a bullish Bitcoin trend is beginning to take shape.

Make Friends With Strong Trends

“The trend is your friend” is one of the most famous trading quotes, highlighting how capturing as much of the prevailing trend as possible can lead to the most profitable results.

For this reason, in technical analysis, trend-following tools are among the most successful. But what is an investor or trader to do when there is a clear absence of any discernible trend?

The answer is “to wait for the trend to appear” but that’s easier said than done. This is why specific tools have been created to tell when assets like Bitcoin or even stocks are trending or not. One such tool is starting to rise after several weeks of sideways price action, and it suggest that the underlying trend is strengthening.

bitcoin adx

Bullish Bitcoin Is Building Muscle

The Average Directional Index (ADX) is a trend strength measuring tool, created by the father of technical indicators, J. Welles, Wilder, Jr. Other tools Wilder built include the Parabolic SAR, Average True Range, and the Relative Strength Index.

A reading above 20 on the ADX means a trend is developing. The more it turns up, the stronger the trend. After weeks of sideways, the trend is starting to strengthen again.

The tool also includes two Directional Movement indicators, the DI+ and DI-. The DI+ is currently above the DI-, showing that bulls in control of the underlying price action. All that’s left is for the ADX to strengthen further and Bitcoin could finally break out of this range and begin trending.

What Bitcoin bulls ultimately want to see next is for the ADX to grow even steeper, similar to what we can see in late 2020 and into early 2022. The lack of another strong trend at the second 2021 peak was a warning that something was off. Will the bullish trend continue to strengthen, or will bears regain control?

Posted on

Bitcoin Bollinger Bands Are The Tightest Ever, What Happens Next?

Last week, the 1W Bollinger Bands in Bitcoin reached its tightest level ever. The volatility measuring tool typically doesn’t give any indication of direction, however.

Using historical data, we’ve taken all previous instances of extreme lows and the resulting direction — up and down — and discovered the success rate of the signal.

Bollinger Band Width Reaches Historical Lows: What Does It Mean?

The Bollinger Bands are a complete trading system, designed by John Bollinger in the 1980s — an avid Bitcoin speculator. The tool uses a 20-period simple moving average (SMA) and two bands set at two standard deviations of the SMA.

As such, the “Bands” expand and contract based on volatility — a measure of how aggressively price moves within a time period. When the Bands tighten to extremes, it indicates a period of low volatility. This setup is called a Squeeze, which ultimately releases pent up energy and results in a large move. When price action picks up, the bands expand to represent the return of volatility.

According to Bollinger Band Width, a related tool designed to tell analysts how tight the bands on an easier to visually compare basis, the Bollinger Bands in BTCUSD are the tightest in the history of crypto. Notably, Ethereum and the TOTAL crypto market cap are also historically tight.

The technical indicator, however, doesn’t say anything about direction, only that something big is on the way. In the past, Bitcoin has broken out in either direction. But how many of these times were up? And how far did it climb?

Bitcoin Bollinger Bands

Bitcoin Breakout Performance Analyzed: Average 669% ROI When Volatility Returns

Past performance is never a guarantee of future results, but from historical price data we can better understand the behavior in BTCUSD after such low volatility phases.

Of the nine total instances the Bitcoin weekly Bollinger Bands got this tight, the top cryptocurrency by market cap rallied upward after upon breakout seven times. The average upward movement across all seven times is 872%. In contrast, the two down moves resulted in an average crash of 40%.<

Bitcoin falling 40% from here would take it back to $17,500 per coin, while a 872% move higher would take BTCUSD to over $280,000 per coin. The average of up and down moves resulted in a grand total of 669%, which would take the number one cryptocurrency to over $220,000. Considering the rule of diminishing returns, such a strong move is unlikely. However, the data speaks to the magnitude of the move that could occur, once volatility returns.

Posted on

Don’t Change The Channel! Why Bitcoin Could Target $42K If Uptrend Holds

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has traded at or near $30K per coin for the better part of 2023.

Throughout the year, an uptrend channel has formed that is currently still holding. If support remains unbroken, it could propel BTCUSD to the top of the parallel channel which is currently located at or around $42K per coin.

A Bitcoin Price Channel For Your Viewing Pleasure

2023 might not have featured the same painful drawdowns in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as 2022 did, but the market is still doling out suffering in the form of boring, sideways price action, and crypto winter PTSD.

Although BTCUSD has mostly been ranging around the $30,000 level for months now, it has overall remained in an uptrend. Uptrends are defined as a series of higher highs and higher lows.

Oftentimes, these uptrends are supported by drawing a trend line below intraday troughs. Depending on the price action, occasionally a parallel channel will form, providing both support and resistance on either end, keeping an uptrend from moving upward too quickly despite the general trajectory.

Such a parallel uptrend channel has formed in Bitcoin, and if the upward-sloping support trend line continues to stay solid and intact, a move to the top of the channel is likely.

bitcoin channel

Tune In To Find Out What Happens Next In Crypto

The channel began to form in late 2022, acting first as an upward-sloping support line that broke down during the FTX collapse. Bitcoin price then meandered sideways until a new, parallel upward-sloping support carried it higher. With the previous support now acting as resistance, it created the upper boundary of the parallel channel that price is now ping-ponging back and forth within.

If the current uptrend structure holds this latest selloff, a push to the upper resistance boundary is possible. As time ticks by, this upper boundary will reach $42K within the next week or two. If Bitcoin does indeed make a run for the upper boundary, this price is within striking distance by early August.

On the other hand, if the channel breaks down, it could be a sign the uptrend is over and short-lived. Failure to produce a meaningful rally could tell the market that the downtrend has resumed, and new lows are ahead.

Posted on

This Bitcoin Indicator Turned $5 Into $34,000

Everyone is looking for an edge when trading crypto. In a new video, a Bitcoin indicator designed for finding precise market turning points is used to turn $5 into $34,000.

The results are a shocking 88% success rate and more than 679,000% ROI. Let’s take a closer look.

About The Bitcoin Indicator Used: Fisher Transform

The Fisher TransformFisher Transform was created by John Elhers and first mentioned in the November 2002 Issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine. The tool attempts to make sense of unpredictable price movements by using statistics.

The indicator takes price data and transforms it into a Gaussian normal distribution. All this means is that the tool tries to make the price data look like a more organized pattern that can be easier to understand.

In addition to using the tool’s turning points for buy and sell signals, passing through the zero line is also a sign that a trend is strengthening. While the tool is highly effective, combining its signals with Japanese candlesticks, chart patterns, and Elliott Wave Principle can improve results.

Bitcoin indicator

Turning $5 Of Bitcoin Into $34,000

In the video, the monthly Fisher Transform is used to generate buy and sell signals when the trigger line crosses above the fisher line from below or above, respectively.

The tool makes several bad trades. It notably loses some money it has earned on the way up at the second Bitcoin top in 2021. Despite a couple slip ups, the Fisher Transform turns $5 into $34,000 in the end. Over $30,000 is added during the best trade.

This translates to roughly a 679,000% ROI over the lifetime of BTCUSD price history. The shocking return is a reminder for investors and traders to find a technical system that works and then let it do its thing. Objective, non-discretionary trading systems may be boring but take emotions and bias out of the equation.

Posted on

Bitcoin Price Blasts Above $28,000 Following 4.9% April CPI Report

Bitcoin price may have resumed its bullish momentum, following a cooler than expected April 2023 CPI report. The Consumer Price Index, a key measure of inflation, fell to 4.9% – lower than the expected 5.0%. As a result, crypto prices are climbing.

Bitcoin Price Reclaims $28,000 After April CPI Release

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly CPI report this morning, revealing that the key inflation measure dropped to 4.9%. Forecasts had called for 5.0%, so the metric came in lower than expectations. Core CPI was 5.5% in April, down from 5.6% in the month before.

Rising inflation was a primary reason for the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates, which put a damper on global markets, including crypto. From the time rates began increasing until the bottom, Bitcoin fell by more than $40,000 in value.

But with inflation now cooling off, the system starting to break, and a Presidential election ahead, markets may be about to price in a possible pause in rate hikes. In the minutes following CPI figures, Bitcoin price jumped over 2%, reclaiming $28,000 per coin.

BTCUSD_2023-05-10_09-22-55 bitcoin price

What’s Next For BTCUSD Price Action?

Bitcoin price has been consolidating around the crucial level, which is directly below the 2020 yearly close and 2021 yearly open. A forceful move above the high timeframe resistance level could send BTC soaring higher.

Failure to sustain bullish momentum further could send crypto back to bear market lows. Any weakness in the stock market could also hurt Bitcoin. If the current reaction to the April CPI report can be sustained, BTCUSD could be trading above $30,000 in the coming weeks.

Posted on

Check Out This Shocking Pepe Coin Versus Bitcoin Comparison

Pepe coin is the most talked about asset in the crypto market right now. The less than one-month-old meme token has nothing at all to do with Bitcoin, yet shockingly is displaying nearly exact price patterns. 

Don’t miss this incredible and unusual chart comparison between BTCUSD and PEPEUSDC. 

A Quick Recap Of Pepe Coin And Its Runaway Crypto Success

Pepe coin is one of the biggest new meme coins, prompting a massive wave of more meme tokens of all kinds. If you couldn’t tell by the name, much like Dogecoin is associated with the Doge meme, this one features the Matt Furie-created Pepe the Frog.

Anyone who invested in Pepe coin over the last couple of weeks “feels good, man.” That is because it has risen in value by over 2,500% in 14 days — numbers that are high even by crypto standards. Most of the supply of holders at this point is in substantial profit. But if the Bitcoin chart is any indication of what’s to come, some serious profit taking could be ahead. 

In the comparison below, we have put the 4-hour PEPEUSDC chart up against the weekly BTCUSD chart. The left chart features two weeks of price action, while the chart on the right shows four full years. Yet they are extremely similar. 

pepe coin pepeusdc bitcoin btcusd

The Unusual Bitcoin Comparison Explained

According to study of Elliott Wave Principle, markets are fractal and form self-similar, repeating patterns across various degrees of timeframes. Simply put, the same price action and behavior can appear on an hourly or 4H chart as it does on a much higher timeframe.

The study focuses on mass crowd behavior and human psychology, particularly how it can create clearly definable turning points in financial markets.  The two charts looking and behaving so similarly could be due to the same type of speculative behavior. 

Importantly, if the comparison is accurate for the reasons discussed, it could indicate that Pepe coin is due for some profit-taking and a correction soon enough. Of course, the meme coin could be nowhere near done and anyone who sells now could be a very, very sad frog. 

Did you buy Pepe? Tell us on Twitter.

Posted on

Bitcoin Price Flash Crashes 6% In Under 60 Minutes, What Happened?

Bitcoin price was trading in the green today, up about $1,500 at the high. The top cryptocurrency by market cap also made another attempt at $30,000 around mid-day. 

Shortly thereafter, in the span of less than 60 minutes, BTCUSD flash crashed by more than 6%, leaving the marker bewildered. Here is a closer look at the sharp selloff and some potential reasons for the reset. 

Bitcoin Price Bleeds 6% In 60 Minutes

Crypto market volatility is picking up and it’s doing so in a major way. Today alone, Bitcoin price was up by more than 6%, then saw the entire rally and then some wiped out in a nearly 7%, one hour long selloff. 

Bulls who were gloating to start the day are now licking wounds and scratching their heads. Even bears aren’t sure what to think about today’s price action, it happened so quickly. 

If recent lows at $27,000 don’t hold, today’s selloff could be the start of a second corrective wave down in BTCUSD. If the level does indeed hold, the move is more than likely the results of long positions in profit closing in succession, followed by stop losses being triggered who entered on the way up, wiping out open interest and resetting technical indicators. 

BTCUSD_2023-04-26_17-15-50

What To Watch For: Shakeout Or Rejection?

The daily candle currently has a massive wick at the top and a decent-sized lower shadow, demonstrating the struggle between bulls and bears in today’s trading session. 

Bitcoin price continues to find resistance at $30,000, and needs to press higher to convince the market that crypto winter is over. Rejection here could be disastrous for the top cryptocurrency by market cap. However, it is possible the move was merely a shakeout before continuation.

One thing is certain: this type of volatility should continue for the near term. 

Posted on

Why Bitcoin May Have Completed The “Perfect” Pullback

Bitcoin price is trading at around $27,000 per coin after failing to hold above $30,000. Crypto market sentiment would suggest that BTC is already back at lows, ready for a fresh decline.

However, if a perfected TD buy setup is an indication, then BTC might have just finished its pullback and is ready to continue upward with renewed momentum.

A Perfect Pullback For Buying The Dip In Bitcoin?

The cryptocurrency community has been on a rollercoaster ride of emotions the past several weeks. Bitcoin’s early 2023 rally caught bears by surprise. Rising beyond $30,000, however, was an opportunity to strike while bulls were blinded by euphoria from recent returns.

Much more quickly than bulls became exuberant over the top crypto asset by market cap doubling in value since bear market lows, bears are celebrating a continuation of crypto winter without so much as a sign of a symbolic snowflake.

Another sign has triggered elsewhere. In this case, a perfected TD8 buy setup has appeared on daily BTCUSD spot exchange charts. A perfected signal arrives when a new low is made. The buy setup usually reaches a full TD9 count, but has perfected ahead of schedule. This could still mean another low to put in a perfected TD9, but the 8-count could also do the trick.

BTCUSD_2023-04-24_13-34-33

BTCUSD Triggers TD8 Setup On Daily Price Charts

The TD Sequential is a market timing tool created by Thomas Demark. It counts a sequence of up and down candles, until the sequence is satisfied, and the count reaches 9. If the TD9 setup fails to produce the expected reversal, a countdown to TD13 begins.

A TD13 signals trend exhaustion. Both the TD9 and 13 don’t necessarily guarantee a reversal, but it does improve the probability if at a key level. The tool has worked well on the buy side of BTCUSD daily charts since the local bottom was put in.

As you can see, past perfected TD setups led to an immediate upside reaction. However, it is important to note that each of the above signals are TD9s and not a TD8. As notable as the signal appearing today is, the reaction over the next 24-48 hours is what matters the most.

If BTCUSD fends off more significant downside and buying kicks in here at this signal, it could tell the market the correction is over, and the bull run is going to continue.

Posted on

Bitcoin Price Prediction: What Elliott Wave Theory Suggests Is Next For BTC

Any Bitcoin price prediction is just a guess without a basis to make the forecast. The stock-to-flow model that was once the most cited reason for expectations of higher prices has failed, leaving technical analysis, on-chain signals, and statistics as the best chance of finding future price targets.

Elliott Wave Theory is a technical analysis forecasting methodology discovered in the 1930s, which is based on identifying extremes in investor psychology combined with distinctive price behavior. With Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies being so susceptible to the ebb and flow of investor sentiment, here is what Elliott Wave Theory suggests about what is to come for Bitcoin price.

A Brief History Of BTC Price Action

The Bitcoin price index chart begins in late 2010, with the first-ever cryptocurrency trading at only pennies on the dollar. By the end of 2011, the price per BTC grew by more than 60,000%. Before the year came to a close, it has lost 94% of its value.

From the low of approximately $2, another bullish impulse added yet another 60,000% ROI by the 2013 peak. Yet another steep corrective phase followed, cutting the cryptocurrency down by 86%.

What followed was arguably the most talked about bull run since the dot com bubble, when in 2017 Bitcoin reached nearly $20,000 per coin. By now, we can see that extreme price swings and pivots in investors sentiment lead to boom and bust cycles across crypto. Bitcoin once again found a bottom at $3,000 in 2018, which will be the basis of the remainder of the analysis.

BTCUSD_2022-12-08_12-06-50

The first wave ever and the history of Bitcoin price | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

An Introduction To Elliott Wave Theory

First discovered by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, Elliott Wave Theory is a basis for explaining how markets grow over time. The motive wave in EWT is an example of markets moving three steps forward, and two steps back.

These steps alternate back and forth between growth and corrective phases. Motive waves consist of five waves in total – with odd numbered waves moving in the direction of the primary trend, and even numbered waves moving against it.

Although corrective phases do result in a drastic decline in value, incremental growth always remains in the primary trend direction. Waves, both impulsive and corrective both appear in varying degrees and timescales.

For example, a five-wave impulse on the daily timeframe could only be a tiny portion of a multi-century Grand Supercycle. Figuring out where Bitcoin is along in its various wave cycles and degrees can help to predict future price action.

BTCUSD_2022-12-08_12-05-12

Bitcoin price prediction scenarios based on possible wave counts | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Reviewing The Current Market Cycle, According To EWT

Each wave in an impulse has unique characteristics which can help an analysis decipher where an asset is in an overall motive wave. Following the 2018 bear market bottom, crypto had a clean slate to move up from. In 2019, Bitcoin rallied to $13,800, showing the market there was still life in the speculative asset.

Nearly the entire rally retraced, which is a common characteristic of a wave 2 correction. Corrections tend to alternate between sharp and flat-style corrections. Sharp corrections are represented by zig-zags. Wave 2 behaved like a zig-zag and there is no denying that the March 2020 Black Thursday collapse was a sharp correction.

Wave 3 in Elliott Wave is typically the longest and strongest wave, marked by much wider participation than wave 1. The crowd begins piling at this point. Bitcoin gained national media attention as it reached new all-times during this wave. From there, things get more confusing.

Elliott Wave practitioners are divided among if BTCUSD completed its wave 4 and wave 5 phases already, or if wave 4 is still in progress and wave 5 is yet to come. Using these two scenarios, some targets can be considered.

BTCUSD_2022-12-08_12-00-34

Things could get extremely bearish for Bitcoin if the cycle has ended | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The Bearish And Bullish Scenarios And Targets

In the bearish scenario, a truncated wave 5 ended the Bitcoin bull run and sent the crypto market into its first true bear phase, with wave 5 of V finished and done, ending the primary cycle (pictured above).

Completed bull markets often retrace back into wave 3/4 territory when the motive wave is completed. Bearish price targets put the negative Bitcoin price prediction from anywhere between $9,000 to as low as $2,000 in a complete collapse of the market. A larger catastrophe in the stock market and housing could ultimately do the trick by pulling whatever capital that’s left out of crypto.

The bullish scenario is much more positive, and better fits with what Elliott Wave Theory calls “the right look” and proper counting. In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin is in the final stages of an expanded flat correction, and once the sentiment and price extremes are finished, the top cryptocurrency will be fast off to setting another bullish price extreme and sentiment switch, much faster than anyone is prepared for.

BTCUSD_2022-12-08_11-58-00

BTC appears to be in the final stages of an expanded flat wave 4 correction | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Using EWT To Make A Bitcoin Price Prediction

The magic behind Elliott Wave Theory and why it influences growth in financial markets is due to its relationships with Fibonacci numbers. Fibonacci numbers are based on the Fibonacci sequence, which is related to the golden ratio. The Fibonacci sequence reads 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 and so on.

In Elliott Wave Theory, there are 21 corrective patterns ranging from simple to complex. A motive wave is 5 waves up, while corrective waves are 3 waves down, creating a total of 8 when added them up. A full realized impulse wave with all sub-waves is 21 waves up, while corrective phases are up to 13 waves down. Every Fibonacci number from the sequence is included in some capacity.

Corrections also stop at Fibonacci retracement levels, and impulses reach Fibonacci extensions as price targets. Wave 5 is usually equal to wave 1 or wave 3 in terms of magnitude. If wave 5 is extended, and it often is in crypto, wave 5’s target could fall somewhere between 1.618 of wave 3, or 1.618 of the sum of wave 1 and wave 3.

Bitcoin price reached the 3.618 extension from the bear market bottom, making it possible that the top cryptocurrency overshoots once again. On the lowest end, a 1.618 price target would put the peak of BTC for this cycle somewhere close to $96,000 per coin, while another 3.618 extension could take the top cryptocurrency all the way to $194,000 per BTC.

This makes the Bitcoin price prediction using EWT anywhere between $100K to $200K before the cycle is over. You can watch this Bitcoin price prediction unfold in real-time by bookmarking the idea on TradingView.

BTCUSD_2022-12-08_11-53-56

A possible Bitcoin price prediction based on Fibonacci extensions | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Posted on

Bitcoin At $1,000: Looking Back At Nine Years Of Bull Run

If the first part of the above headline about Bitcoin price had your heart pumping, it might be time to reduce the amount of leverage you are using.

No, we aren’t calling for BTC to reach a target of $1,000 – we are instead looking back and celebrating the nine-year anniversary of the first time Bitcoin breached above $1,000.

Nine Years Ago: BTC Breaks Above $1,000

Bitcoin is now in the midst of its fourth ever bear market and currently trading at a price of around $16,000 per coin. After the dramatic fall from $69,000 in late 2021 to current levels, sentiment has taken a beating. It isn’t unusual to see targets on crypto Twitter for $1,000 BTC in the days ahead.

Today, however, we aren’t as focused on future targets for the top cryptocurrency, but the long journey Bitcoin has had from when it first passed $1,000.

Nine years ago from yesterday, on November 27, 2013, BTC breached above $1,000. The level proved to be significant at the time, with BTCUSD trading above $1,000 for less than ten days before the 2014-2015 bear market started.

From that point on, it was more than 1000 days before Bitcoin passed $1,000 again. But when it passed it again, Bitcoin became a household name.

BTCUSD_2022-11-28_08-33-32

Bitcoin breached $1,000 exactly nine years ago yesterday | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Where To Next: $1K or $1M Per Bitcoin?

$1,000 per BTC was significant for several reasons. It was a large, rounded number in US dollars, but 1 BTC was almost exactly the same price of an ounce of gold at the time.

After breaching above $1,000 a second time, Bitcoin went on to climb just under 2,000% to nearly $20,000 per coin. Today, five years later, BTC is below the 2017 bull market peak.

Related Reading: Bitcoin At $1M By 2030: Why Cathie Wood Remains Confident In Bold Bet

From the $1,000 milestone to current prices at around $16,000 per BTC, the top cryptocurrency still has more than 16,000% ROI its held onto. From its inception, it has gained more than 150,000,000% cumulatively.

Despite this, there are equal calls for a revisit to the $1,000 level as there are for Bitcoin reaching $1 million per coin, making BTC the most interesting speculative asset of all-time.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Posted on

Bitcoin Bounces On Lower Than Expected CPI Data | BTCUSD November 10, 2022

Bitcoin has taken 10% back in a dramatic move following the announcement of October CPI data. CPI came in below expectations, causing a melt up in risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

Take a look at the video below:

VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): November 10, 2022

Before suggesting any type of bottom is in, more downside could still be ahead, with this recent movement being nothing more than a bearish retest.

Did The Drop Fill Out A Bullish Wedge Pattern?

The downward move might have filled out a massive bullish wedge, making for the third touch and daily close at the bottom trend line. There is also a daily bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index, so long as BTCUSD doesn’t make new lows again today. But given all the panic out there, more collapse could be ahead.

BTCUSD_2022-11-10_13-35-53

Does the bull div support a bullish wedge pattern? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Related Reading: Bitcoin Bloodbath Takes Crypto To New Bear Market Lows | BTCUSD November 8, 2022

Bitcoin RSI Reaches Most Oversold Monthly Level Ever

On two different timeframes, Bitcoin is working on some record-breaking signals. Weekly timeframes shows a possible bullish divergence. This would be the first in the history of Bitcoin after reaching oversold conditions on the RSI. 

The monthly Relative Strength Index is also the most oversold in the entire history of the cryptocurrency market.

BTCUSD_2022-11-10_13-34-16

Weekly and monthly RSI are giving history-making signals | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price: Can Cyclical Tools Predict The Next Bubble? | BTCUSD November 7, 2022

The Bottom Is Near According To Cyclical Perfection

After this latest collapse, each past bear market bottom now lines up accurately down to the one-week timeframe. The bottom will be between now and November 16th if the tool remains accurate down to the daily timeframe. The bottom could already be in, but there are still three whole days remaining in this weekly candle to finish.

Bitcoin also could be working on holding onto the drawn trendline on a closing basis only. If the top cryptocurrency holds at this level, we could potentially get a fifth impulse according to Elliott Wave Theory.

BTCUSD_2022-11-10_13-33-04

Could this be the last wave in Bitcoin for some time? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Learn crypto technical analysis yourself with the NewsBTC Trading Course. Click here to access the free educational program.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.co

Posted on

Bitcoin Bear Markets Compared: How Much Longer Till The Bottom? | BTCUSD November 9, 2022

In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily crypto technical analysis videos, we are examining past Bitcoin bear markets to see how much further we could have before a bottom is in.

Take a look at the video below:

VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): November 9, 2022

Bitcoin price continues to set new low after low now that support has been decisively broken. 

Expanded Flat Corrective Pattern Fills Out Further

The market is clearly bearish, but on the brighter side we have what could be the final wave in an expanded flat pattern. The push to new lows continues to fill out what could be a large falling wedge pattern. But considering the price action and sentiment out there, it is challenging to consider any bullish thesis.

Bitcoin price is now at the 0.5 retracement using Fibonacci on log settings. But that isn’t very reassuring. Given the expectations for the $14K and $13K area, either Bitcoin price action stops short of that level, or slices right through it.

BTCUSD_2022-11-09_16-27-20

Has the corrective pattern completed? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price: Can Cyclical Tools Predict The Next Bubble? | BTCUSD November 7, 2022

Bitcoin Bear Market Worst-Case Scenario

In these next charts, the worst case scenario would involve filling a BTC CME gap at under $10,000. Not only is there confluence there with diagonal uptrend support, but that is roughly 85% retracement from the peak. 

This is notable, because during the 2018 bear market, BTC fell by 84%, and in the 2015 bear market it dropped 86%. If you average out those two samples, you get an 85% retracement on average.

Much like the top cryptocurrency peaked well below the ROI levels of past bull runs, bear markets won’t see as much of a decline either. The idea is that Bitcoin volatility is disappearing over time.

BTC1!_2022-11-09_16-27-40

BTC Futures gap presents worst-case scenario | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Related Reading: Litecoin Recovery To End Ongoing Crypto Darkness? LTCUSD November 2, 2022

When Will BTC Put In a Bottom?

On the topic of time, time is most certainly a factor in bear markets. The 2018 bear market took roughly 12 months to reach a bottom, or the same amount of time since the second peak of the BTC double top through now. 

The 2015 bear market took 14 months to find a bottom. If we count the first peak in Bitcoin, the bear market has been the longest ever at 19 months before reaching a bottom.

BTCUSD_2022-11-09_16-33-51

How much longer can the bear market last? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Learn crypto technical analysis yourself with the NewsBTC Trading Course. Click here to access the free educational program.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.co

Posted on

Bitcoin Bloodbath Takes Crypto To New Bear Market Lows | BTCUSD November 8, 2022

In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily technical analysis videos, we examine the bloodbath across crypto today and the new record low for this Bitcoin bear market.

Take a look at the video below:

VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): November 8, 2022

It was a highly volatile day in crypto markets, led by a battle between FTX and Binance that ultimately might end with Binance owning FTX.com. The two company’s CEO’s public spat caused the already fearful crypto market to collapse further. As a result, Bitcoin price made a new bear market lower low, setting a new record low for all of 2022 at the same time. 

Bulls Demoralized, Bound To Ignore Exhaustion Signal

It is hard to imagine much hope for bulls at this very moment. After months of consolidation and a failed attempt at a breakout, bears appear to have regained control. Of the few notable bullish signals – if any remain at all – the TD sequential on daily timeframes has triggered a perfected TD 13 countdown setup, which could indicate that today’s massacre was a buy and the bear trend has been exhausted.

Today’s uptick in trading volume seems to confirm more downside – or is the heavy volume the capitulation we have been waiting for instead?

BTCUSD_2022-11-08_16-04-52

Will bulls ignore these exhaustion signs? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Related Reading: MATIC On The Move After Polygon Tapped By META | MATICUSD November 3, 2022

Bitcoin Futures Goes Back In Time To Beginning Of 2018 Bear Market

On BTC CME Futures, Bitcoin price touched down on the only weekly support that exists on the way down. Because CME futures launched after the top cryptocurrency’s 2017 peak, the price chart began with a bear market in Bitcoin.

On the yearly timeframe, we can see that the price candle touched exactly at the tip top of the wick representing the 2018 yearly high.

BTC1!_2022-11-08_16-03-20

BTC Futures returns to 2018 yearly high | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Related Reading: Litecoin Recovery To End Ongoing Crypto Darkness? LTCUSD November 2, 2022

Why The Log Curve Is The Last Hope For Crypto Bulls

For bulls looking for something – anything – to find solace in after today’s bloodbath in crypto, there is a chance that this is the bottom based on nothing more than the log growth curve.

Drawn from wick to wick, there is no further room for BTCUSD to go downward much further. Only a few times in history has the exact bottom line been touched and each time has turned into the greatest bull runs on record.

With no room left at the bottom of the log growth curve, what in the world will happen next?

BTCUSD_2022-11-08_16-02-04

There is no room left below the log growth curve | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Learn crypto technical analysis yourself with the NewsBTC Trading Course. Click here to access the free educational program.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.co

Posted on

Bitcoin Price: Can Cyclical Tools Predict The Next Bubble? | BTCUSD November 7, 2022

In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily technical analysis videos, we examine major Bitcoin price troughs with Hurst Cycle Theory and cyclical tools to consider if the bottom could be in and if another bubble is coming.

Take a look at the video below:

VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): November 7, 2022

In this video, we use Hurst Cycle Theory and its several key principles to go through the process of phasing out Bitcoin market cycles to predict when the cryptocurrency will begin to rise again. Cycle analysis consists of visual analysis, using a spectrogram, phasing the dominant cycle, phasing any internal wave harmonics, then completing the phasing process on the chart. Here is a closer look at that process:

Bitcoin Cyclical Behavior Analyzed

To assist with the visual analysis, each Bitcoin halving has been included. The halving has been a widely-discussed driver of internal supply and demand mechanics. We know that Bitcoin bottoms out visually prior to each halving. The log growth curve has also been included for visual assistance.

The next step is to turn on a spectrogram. A spectrogram is a visual heatmap of the spectrum of frequencies of a signal as it varies with time. The more green heat, the stronger the bullish intensity. In contrast, the more purple heat on the map, the stronger the bearish intensity is and that’s where we would look for a cyclical bottom. Within each purple zone we would find our cyclical trough for dominant cycle phasing.

BTCUSD_2022-11-07_14-15-49

Is a new Bitcoin cycle about to begin? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Related Reading: Litecoin Recovery To End Ongoing Crypto Darkness? LTCUSD November 2, 2022

Why This Bear Market Felt So Extreme

The next step would be to confirm the dominant cycle by phasing out any harmonics. According to Hurst Cycle Theory, harmonics in cycles come in twos and threes. Essentially, from each major trough to trough, there should be one to two mid-cycle dips. 

Not only does defining the mid-cycle harmonics assist in confirming dominant cycle phasing, but it does also help prove Hurst cycle theory to be accurate. Notice that cyclical troughs tend to bottom in tandem, while the principle of summation explains why the recent selloff felt so long and extreme – it was the sum of a larger composite wave and a smaller harmonic wave combined.

BTCUSD_2022-11-07_14-36-07

Each correction was in near-perfect harmony | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Related Reading: Bitcoin And The Dollar Reach Inverse Inflection Points | BTCUSD November 1, 2022

Why BTC Is Gearing Up For Another Bubble Cycle

The final step is completing the phasing. For added confirmation, the Fisher Transform is used, which helps to pinpoint precise turning points in markets, as well as the Stochastic RSI. In this system, the Fisher Transform highlights the potential turning point, while the Stoch RSI rising from oversold levels confirms the new bull run.

BTCUSD_2022-11-07_14-16-32

Is this the turning point in the bear market? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

A Comparison With The Last Crypto Market Bottom

Considering the potential of a bottom in this area, it is worth examining past bottom behavior. Comparing the current Adam and Eve bottom setup to the 2018 bear market bottom is strikingly similar, albeit on a much grander scale. When compared using the three-day timeframe and a set of three slow, moderate, and fast moving averages, the fractal could take Bitcoin price to around $100,000 per coin by the end of Q1 2023.

BTCUSD_2022-11-07_08-14-27

Will BTC close 2022 headed towards new highs? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Learn crypto technical analysis yourself with the NewsBTC Trading Course. Click here to access the free educational program.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.co

Posted on

Bitcoin And The Dollar Reach Inverse Inflection Points | BTCUSD November 1, 2022

In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily technical analysis videos, we examine Bitcoin price following the October monthly close and new November candle open.

Take a look at the video below:

VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): November 1, 2022

Last night on Halloween we also had the October monthly BTCUSD candle close, which brought with it the start of a new November monthly candle and a reset of technical indicators.

BTC Cost of Production On Par With 2018 Bear Market

To start, we are looking at the cost to produce each BTC. Bitcoin is now just about on par with the 2018 bear market for the longest time below the cost of production metric. But this also could suggest at least another month of sideways price action.

BTCUSD_2022-11-01_13-46-12

Bitcoin is below the cost to produce each coin for most miners | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Related Reading: The Inverted Bitcoin Chart Bears Don’t Wanna See | BTCUSD Analysis October 27, 2022

Bitcoin Momentum Is Building Up From Lows

Monthly momentum isn’t turning over as fast as it did during the 2018 bear market, leaving some risk remaining that more lows are possible. If the currently pink histogram closes red again, expect a bigger drop.

Monthly stochastic is also flipping bullish. Past crossovers have pin-pointed previous bottoms, but there won’t be any bull run until the tool rises out of oversold territory.

BTCUSD_2022-11-01_13-45-39

When will momentum flip bullish once again? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Related Reading: Bitcoin Bollinger Band Breakout Starts To Squeeze Shorts | BTCUSD Analysis October 26, 2022

Will We See A Cyclical Conclusion In The Dollar?

On the left, we have BTCUSD monthly using the Fisher Transform. The statistics-based technical indicator is used to find exact turning points in market cycles. Not only is the monthly Fisher on Bitcoin at a level where its price action bottomed in the past, but each bottom has also recurred cyclically with stunning precision.

To the right, the Dollar Currency Index is showing a topping signal inverse of Bitcoin’s bottoming signal, all while at the most extreme deviation in the entire history of the index on monthly timeframes.

If the DXY pauses or reverses from here, Bitcoin could see a resumption of its bull market. If the dollar finds the momentum to keep climbing, the cryptocurrency market could see new lows.  DXY_2022-11-01_13-44-56

Is this the turning point in the bear market? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Learn crypto technical analysis yourself with the NewsBTC Trading Course. Click here to access the free educational program.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.co